Picking Ruckman for 2013

Jacka33 · February 16, 2013, 02:56:07 PM

Hey guys, I've been on Supercoach for 2 weeks now and have been looking at all the ruck choices for this year and thought I would write an article about how to go about it.

Before i get in depth i thought i would post an old article i created last year to show people my credibility, enjoy

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,48924.0.html

So as you can see I know a decent bit about picking Rucks for Supercoach.

Firstly the main thing I would like to point out for this year is that the choices appear to be alot HARDER but that challenge is also an opportunity to go better than everyone else.

Below are listed points for players you should and shouldn't consider with a rating below for how much i rate them, I will start with probably the most common and talked about player.

(take note that the scores I give each player is based on my projected score for them, their durability and their starting price)

1. Matthew Leuenberger $301,100

Everyone will be picking this bloke up from looking around the forums, and why not? before his injured 2012 he averaged 92.8 in 2010 and 95.8 in 2011. at only $301,100 is an absolute steal and the easiest choice you will make all year. The only way he won't be picked is if he injures himself before the season starts.

Projected Average: 93

9.5/10

2. Dean Cox [FWD] $600,700

Proven gun who makes selecting him easier with also being listed as a forward, given that though he should probably be put there and not in the rucks where he might take up space of other ruckman who would be more beneficial. Starting the year without Naitanui I believe will positively affect his scores and he will have a slightly bigger average over last year.

Projected Average: 116

9/10- but play him forward

3. Nic Naitanui [FWD] $611,000

Definitely a freak and someone who will feature heavily in fantasy AFL for the years to come, however he comes into this season at a whopping $611,000 and will be missing the whole NAB cup and likely a few rounds once the season starts, should not be considering him for a starting ruckman but perhaps an upgrade later in the year when he is settled.

Projected Average: 109

7/10 - same as Cox play him forward if at all

4. Ivan Maric $606,900

Wow what a year he had in 2012, and if you read the above article which i linked you will know how happy I was to have picked him from round 1 :). As much as i loved having him last year I doubt I will be selecting him for this season, but only because I like to pick players who will rise in price and not necessarily maintain it. If you want a ruckman who will maintain his price and pump some great scores though there is no reason as to why Maric can't do exactly what he did last year again.

Projected Average: 111

8.5/10

5. Aaron Sandilands $602,400

Definitely been a prominent figure for Supercoach over the years, however if there is one thing that has ben learnt about this tower of a man, it is that he never seems to play a full season. When searching for Supercoach players durability is a key as no one wants money sitting on the bench being wasted, or having to trade out someone who is out for the year. As much as he scores big he is just too touchy for my liking. Would steer clear simply based on that.

Projected Average: 113

7.5/10

6. Paddy Ryder $564,300

Would be pretty brave to pick this man in 2013, but some risks are worth it. A good player who had a great last season, but his scores fluctuate greatly and I can't really see him doing better than his 104.8 average last year.

Projected Average: 100

7.5/10

7. Ben McEvoy $557,400

Has had his 2 last seasons average over 100 and doesn't show any reason to stop doing it. Hasn't got a big ceiling though so don't expect his average to go much higher than previous years. All in all a pretty safe pick if you need a Ruckman around his price.

Projected Average: 106

8/10

8. Jarryd Roughead [FWD] $554,800

Another FWD RUK option, won't delve into him too much because of that but he is a very dynamic player and yet again if you need someone around his price he won't disappoint.

Projected Average: 107

8.5/10

9. Sam Jacobs $546,300

Adelaide have him as their No.1 Ruckman and there is no one who will be contending with that again, given the way he played last year i thought he is a much better player than his 102.1 average suggests. One of the better options for this year as he is durable and reliable. Bit cheaper than the other choices and should average around the same.

Projected Average: 110

9/10

10. Todd Goldstein $497,900

One of the cheaper options after only averaging 93 last year. However he did have a monster year in 2011 averaging 113.1

This man is probably going to be my pick to go alongside Leuenberger, mainly because MANY of his scores last year were affected by Macintosh playing as well. If there is one thing that I have learnt about this man it is that he is a gun when he is the No.1 Ruckman, and with Macintosh off to Geelong that is exactly what he will be for the entire year.

To proce my point of how good he will be this year, if you look at the games he played last year WITHOUT Macintosh, his average jumps to 100.3. Again if you exclude the game he was sick and playing against Sandilands and scoring 27, his average jumps to 105.5. Jump on him as he will again be a dominant Ruckman, but $100,000 cheaper than other premium options.

Projected Average: 109

9/10

I have not listed any rookie choices as there are not many being seen or talked about and will have to see what happens during the NAB cup.

Hope you enjoyed this talk and agree with my choices. Good luck all to your 2013 season.

billnats · February 16, 2013, 03:29:22 PM

Goldstein & Burger for me... cheap and will carry the team's ruck work

Cruiseon · February 16, 2013, 05:21:48 PM

Great review Jacka, well done.

GM · February 16, 2013, 05:25:46 PM

Good write up mate,
But you have to risk it for the biscuit,Sandi R1 & Cox F1 for me.

MC · February 16, 2013, 05:33:28 PM

Nice write up mate. I loved reading back on all of the criticism from last year's post. So many people eating their words! The same will happen this year - which proves that by going with your gut you will often reap the rewards.

Ziplock · February 16, 2013, 06:01:48 PM

Quote from: MC on February 16, 2013, 05:33:28 PM
Nice write up mate. I loved reading back on all of the criticism from last year's post. So many people eating their words! The same will happen this year - which proves that by going with your gut you will often reap the rewards.

ftr, I still stand by my argument- Hmac was a proven performer, and over the first 6 rounds before he got injured he averaged 107.2 SC ppg. Over the same period Maric was averaging 98.83... whilst maric was a good call and a great pick up for anyone who started with him/ got on him early, saying that Hmac was a safer bet since he was a more proven performer was completely justified. Even including his injured game he was still averaging more than maric over that period, and you could have (from memory) straight swapped them.

the only issue with hmac was that he got injured, and injuries, even for injury prone players, are almost impossible to predict. Sometimes they get over it (chapman 2010 onwards), or at the very least avoid it for a year (J grimes 2012), or sometimes even the most durable players get struck down (Goodes 2012).

Despite the way it worked out, hmac was still, imo, a more logical and justifiable choice last year, even if maric ended up beating him in overall points.

Jacka33 · February 16, 2013, 06:13:00 PM

Was true in H-Mac being a great choice last year, was unlucky him getting injured as he is a nice guy.

As for the straight swap, I do recall the 2 prices of each of them...

Maric's start price was around 338k and H-Mac was around 364K

Not a big difference but still extra money that got to be spent elsewhere.

I was also not arguing over H-Mac not being a good choice, just that Maric would be a good choice which he turned out to be.

GM · February 16, 2013, 06:56:29 PM

Quote from: Ziplock on February 16, 2013, 06:01:48 PM
Quote from: MC on February 16, 2013, 05:33:28 PM
Nice write up mate. I loved reading back on all of the criticism from last year's post. So many people eating their words! The same will happen this year - which proves that by going with your gut you will often reap the rewards.

ftr, I still stand by my argument- Hmac was a proven performer, and over the first 6 rounds before he got injured he averaged 107.2 SC ppg. Over the same period Maric was averaging 98.83... whilst maric was a good call and a great pick up for anyone who started with him/ got on him early, saying that Hmac was a safer bet since he was a more proven performer was completely justified. Even including his injured game he was still averaging more than maric over that period, and you could have (from memory) straight swapped them.

the only issue with hmac was that he got injured, and injuries, even for injury prone players, are almost impossible to predict. Sometimes they get over it (chapman 2010 onwards), or at the very least avoid it for a year (J grimes 2012), or sometimes even the most durable players get struck down (Goodes 2012).

Despite the way it worked out, hmac was still, imo, a more logical and justifiable choice last year, even if maric ended up beating him in overall points.

There's a lot of good fortune required in Fantasy land to be up the top mate as we all know.Your choice on Hmac last year was logical.But i wont forget though how many people were calling Maric a spud.Putting me off him really.Just goes to show take in the good Knowledge but let the knockers go through to the keeper.

Mykonos FC · February 16, 2013, 07:29:11 PM

Even when Goldstein had the rucking to himself when HMAC went down early, he was crap. Fitness was low and got smashed at the hitouts by better ruckmen.

Mykonos FC · February 16, 2013, 07:29:48 PM

Apart from my little disagreement there - very nice write up!

Frankfaust1 · February 16, 2013, 07:38:20 PM

Quote from: Jacka33 on February 16, 2013, 02:56:07 PM
Hey guys, I've been on Supercoach for 2 weeks now and have been looking at all the ruck choices for this year ope you enjoyed this talk and agree with my choices. Good luck all to your 2013 season.

Thansk for the assessment - very handy.

Any thoughts on Kreuzer of doesn't he rate?

Jacka33 · February 17, 2013, 01:09:06 PM

Matthew Kreuzer

Personally I'd steer clear of him, had his best year to date last year with an average of 92.3

This was when fellow ruckman at Carlton Robert Warnock only played 5 games, which when you have a look affected Kreuzer's scores dramatically. When choosing a dominant ruckman you want to make sure that they will get just as much ruck time as the previous year if not more, and I don't like Kreuzer's odds.

Avoid unless Warnock goes out of the picture completely.

Clokesmits · February 18, 2013, 01:02:25 AM

how about Mummy?

Kangas42 · February 18, 2013, 01:08:06 AM

Quote from: Clokesmits on February 18, 2013, 01:02:25 AM
how about Mummy?

Mummy is too injury prone and there are far better options out there as a premium ruck that are more reliable. Had him at the start last year and got properly burnt so am steering well clear this year

blue · February 18, 2013, 03:18:55 AM

Quote from: Jacka33 on February 17, 2013, 01:09:06 PM
Matthew Kreuzer

Personally I'd steer clear of him, had his best year to date last year with an average of 92.3

This was when fellow ruckman at Carlton Robert Warnock only played 5 games, which when you have a look affected Kreuzer's scores dramatically. When choosing a dominant ruckman you want to make sure that they will get just as much ruck time as the previous year if not more, and I don't like Kreuzer's odds.

Avoid unless Warnock goes out of the picture completely.

so what are the thoughts on warnock then?