Ultimate Footy Draft Camp

[Tiki50]

Hey guys,

Bit of an UF fan here, going to run a league for a bit of draft practice (seeing as you can create up to 4 teams, without upgrading to Pro)

Live Online Draft, date will be 26 Feb @ 7:00 p.m. AEST

10 team league.

5 / 7 / 1 / 5 starting squads with DT scoring system.

Post if interested and/or want more details.

[hoosie]

Can't join your league Tiki 50 - already have 5 leagues. 3 of these are my Out of left Field
leagues - 1 is full, the other 2 have spots available but are filling fast - jump aboard!
Out of Left Field II has 4 spots left - code: 504720
Out of Left Field III also has 4 spots left - code: 598389

[Tiki50]

Alright, Out of Left Field II looks good, a few points of difference. If it's a snake draft, I'm in

[hoosie]

Think it's fairer Tiki 50 if draft order stays the same - have asked one of the league coaches to draw names out of a hat to come up with draft order. Each coach has a 1 in 12 chance of getting first draft pick. Using rankings as a guide here are some possible selections:

Coach A picks 1,13,25 ... Gary Ablett, Jack Redden, Scott Selwood
Coach B picks 2,14,26 ... Dane Swan, Andrew Swallow, Luke Shuey
Coach C picks 3,15,27 ... Trent Cotchin, Brent Stanton, Callan Ward
Coach D picks 4,16,28 ... Scott Pendlebury, Brendon Goddard, Steele Sidebottom
Coach E picks 5,17,29 ... Marc Murphy, Brad Ebert, James Kelly
Coach F picks 6,18,30 ... Dane Beams, Bryce Gibbs, Kade Simpson
Coach G picks 7,19,31... Matthew Boyd, Shane Tuck, Nick Dal Santo
Coach H picks 8,20,32 ... Jobe Watson, Sam Mitchell, Toby Greene
Coach I  picks 9,21,33 ... Joel Selwood, Josh Kennedy, Leigh Montagna
Coach J picks10,22,34... Scott Thompson, Kieren Jack, Ryan Griffen
Coach K picks11,23,35... Brett Deledio, Nathan Fyfe, Matt Priddis
Coach L picks12,24,36... Patrick Dangerfield, Michael Barlow, David Mundy

You can see for the first three draft picks there is an even spread of top class midfielders.

[Tiki50]

Not sure how keeping the same order makes it more fair... Be tough to convince pick #12 that he's better off with #12 & #24 than #12 & #13.

Going to pass, thanks for the replies/info though

[GM]

Yeah i probably agree mate it needs a snake draft.

[hoosie]

Just some food for thought Tiki 50. I compared the first three draft picks of the 12 coaches for the Same Order and Reverse Order drafts by giving each midfield a rating out of 10.

Same Order Draft

Coach A picks 1,13,25 ... Gary Ablett, Jack Redden, Scott Selwood   8
Coach B picks 2,14,26 ... Dane Swan, Andrew Swallow, Luke Shuey  8
Coach C picks 3,15,27 ... Trent Cotchin, Brent Stanton, Callan Ward 8
Coach D picks 4,16,28 ... Scott Pendlebury, Brendon Goddard, Steele Sidebottom 8
Coach E picks 5,17,29 ... Marc Murphy, Brad Ebert, James Kelly 8
Coach F picks 6,18,30 ... Dane Beams, Bryce Gibbs, Kade Simpson 8
Coach G picks 7,19,31... Matthew Boyd, Shane Tuck, Nick Dal Santo  7
Coach H picks 8,20,32 ... Jobe Watson, Sam Mitchell, Toby Greene 8
Coach I  picks 9,21,33 ... Joel Selwood, Josh Kennedy, Leigh Montagna  7
Coach J picks10,22,34... Scott Thompson, Kieren Jack, Ryan Griffen 7
Coach K picks11,23,35... Brett Deledio, Nathan Fyfe, Matt Priddis 8
Coach L picks12,24,36... Patrick Dangerfield, Michael Barlow, David Mundy 6

Reverse Order Draft

Coach A picks 1,24,25 ... Gary Ablett,  Michael Barlow, Scott Selwood 7
Coach B picks 2,23,26 ... Dane Swan, Nathan Fyfe, Luke Shuey  7
Coach C picks 3,22,27 ... Trent Cotchin, Kieren Jack, Callan Ward 7
Coach D picks 4,21,28 ... Scott Pendlebury, Josh Kennedy, Steele Sidebottom  7
Coach E picks 5,20,29 ... Marc Murphy, Sam Mitchell, James Kelly  8
Coach F picks 6,19,30 ... Dane Beams, Shane Tuck, Kade Simpson  6
Coach G picks 7,18,31... Matthew Boyd, Bryce Gibbs, Nick Dal Santo 7
Coach H picks 8,17,32 ... Jobe Watson, Brad Ebert, Toby Greene  8
Coach I  picks 9,16,33 ... Joel Selwood, Brendon Goddard, Leigh Montagna 7
Coach J picks10,15,34... Scott Thompson, Brent Stanton, Ryan Griffen  7
Coach K picks11,14,35... Brett Deledio, Andrew Swallow, Matt Priddis  8
Coach L picks12,13,36... Patrick Dangerfield, Jack Redden, David Mundy 7

As you can see the Same Order draft produces eight scores of 8, three scores of 7, and a score of 6(the example you highlighted
which I agree is not a strong midfield - but still there's only a 1 in 12 chance that any particular coach will be unlucky enough to have it)
I have made it fair by asking another coach (witnessed by a second coach) to draw names out of a hat to come up with the draft order.

Your Reverse Order draft produces three scores of 8, eight scores of 7, and also a score of 6 (same as mine - so there still will be one unlucky coach! I suppose you can't please everyone.)

My preference is to choose the draft system which gives two thirds of coaches the stronger midfield ( this is what I meant by an even spread of quality midfielders). With the Reverse Order draft there aren't enough scores of 8 to produce an even final series. When you come down to the last four teams if one has a weaker midfield than the others it can cause the finals to be lopsided.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

[Tiki50]

This all runs under the assumption that people's first 3 picks would go to MIDs, and that doesn't happen. And the scores out of 10 are really just you opinion (and that's totally fine) and should not be taken as an actual value. I know if you offered me a choice between GAZ, Redden, and S Selwood (Coach A) or Deledio Fyfe and Priddis (Coach K), I'd be all over option A.

In my experience with UF and the draft format, the teams with the mint midfields failed to even make the GF. It's alot easier to find MIDs that will get you near-premo scores (that 90 - 100 range) than it is DEFs and FWDs.

I made the GF last year with Pendles, Daisy, Greene, Sam Gibson and Matt Priddis running my midfield (and a couple of those guys went undrafted - I'm sure you can guess which two). What got me there though was the DEF group (Deledio, Waters, Duffield, Hanley)

The depth in DEF and FWDs is much shallower, therefore it makes their value much greater.

In short, I think that the linear (same order) draft really just makes it luck. Draft pick 1 will dominate (unless they don't know their stuff). I'm drafting 10 (out of 10) in my main league - and I'm not bothered since I know I'll be able to even things out after missing out on all the uber-premos (Swan, GAZ, Pendles, Boyd). If I had 10, 20, 30 etc. I'd be pissed

Here's an article by DT talk, they agree with me :P

http://dreamteamtalk.com/2013/02/11/intro-for-commissioners/

Always good to discuss these things!

[upthemaidens]

Its fairly well known that a'snake draft' is the fairest way to draft.
  There is no way the guy with picks 1,11,21,31 etc. isnt a big favourite to beat the guy with picks 10,20,30,40 etc.
  Whereas picks 1,20,21,40 etc. is alot more even against picks 10,11,30,31 etc.

[hoosie]

Fair points Tiki50 and thanks for the article. I'll see how the linear draft plays out this time, but very much enjoy the debate and discussion about which process is best.

[hoosie]

Tiki50 - You were right! ( I should have done my Mathematics).
I compared the first 5 draft picks for both the
same order and reverse order drafts:
                                            Av(first 4 picks)
1,13,25,37,49                      19  
1,24,25,48,49                    24.5  

2,14,26,38,50                      20                 
2,23,26,47,50                    24.5


3,15,27,39,51                      21    
3,22,27,46,51                     24.5  

4,16,28,40,52                      22    
4,21,28,45,52                     24.5

5,17,29,41,53                     23    
5,20,29,44,53                    24.5  

12,24,36,48,60                 30  
12,13,36,37,60                 24.5  
As you can see with the same order draft the average of the first 4 picks
increases from 19 for coach with first draft pick to 30 for coach with pick 12 (average increases by 1 each time).
As we move down the list it becomes harder to field a good side.
With the reverse draft the average of the first 4 picks remains the same at 24.5 for each of the 12 coaches - a fairer outcome for everyone.
So I am going to change the draft to reverse order

               
   
 

[Tiki50]

Awesome, I hopped into Out of Left Field 2

Looking forward to it, I like the different scoring system, will be something different!

[hoosie]

Great to have you on board Tiki 50 in the second league.  Draft for first league took place took place a few hours ago. Thought it
went well - was very exciting. Swan wasn't taken till pick 4 .