To start with Buddy Franklin or not?

[Jroo]

My latest article for SuperCoach HQ

Lance 'Buddy' Franklin - Forward - $618,000 - Hawthorn

To start with Buddy or not?

Every year when we select our SuperCoach side, we go to the forward line and lock Lance 'Buddy' Franklin in straight away. He's undoubtedly in the top three players in the AFL, if not number one. But this year I think you should have a think, before you lock him in and I'll give you some reasons why you should and shouldn't put Buddy Franklin in your starting SuperCoach side.

Yes

• He's a proven gun - Buddy is the best SuperCoach forward and is at a hefty price of $618,000, but no wonder he is so expensive. He averaged 115 last year and is a proven SuperCoach gun averaging over 105 SuperCoach points, in 4 out of the last 5 years and is worth every cent.


Buddy's a proven premium

• He's one of the best players in the competition - Without a doubt, Buddy is in the top three players in the AFL and arguably even number one. He's a freakish player who can win a game off his own boot for the Hawks. Buddy normally has a huge influence on games, which can result in some huge SuperCoach scores, as the SuperCoach scoring system rewards players for their influence on games. Leave him out of your SuperCoach side at your peril.

• He has an unbelievably high ceiling - Buddy has the ability to have a massive game and produce a huge SuperCoach score, as he showed last year scoring a massive 236 SuperCoach points against North Melbourne. If you don't have Buddy in your team when he has a massive week like that, you'll be in trouble.

• Reliable for a good score every game - You  can count on Buddy each game to give you a decent score. In 10 out of his 16 games last year, Buddy scored over 100 SuperCoach points and didn't dip below 72, so even when he has a bad day, it's not horrific. Plus nearly every other SuperCoach team will have Buddy, so when he has a bad day, it's cancelled out by your opponent.

No

• How will his contract saga affect him? - We've seen SuperCoach guns in Ablett, Goddard and Cloke suffer in the year, which they put their contract talks on hold until the end of the year. How will it affect Buddy?


Contract sagas have affected other stars before, how about Buddy?

• Tough draw - The Hawks have an incredibly hard start to the year, playing every one of last year's finalists before round 8. They play Geelong, West Coast, Collingwood, Fremantle, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney all in a row. Buddy is destined to have a bad game or two against these quality opponents and you could consider trading him in at round 8 after playing the hardest teams. If he goes down in price, his next three matches are; GWS, Gold Coast and Melbourne, and he'll definitely score well.

• Point of Difference - Nearly every SuperCoach team will have Buddy, so when he has a bad week you will get an advantage over your opponent (if they don't  have Buddy) and everyone else who doesn't. Plus you will have extra money to spend elsewhere on your team to improve it, unlike everyone else with Buddy.

•Not great durability and misses games - You can lock Buddy in to give you a decent SuperCoach score each week, but you can't lock him into play every game. Every year he misses games through injury and suspension, which is frustrating for SuperCoaches. Buddy has only had one season were he played every game, back in 2008 and we all know what happened that year.

Verdict
It's up to you, to whether you select Buddy or not in your SuperCoach side, but as they say, you have to risk it to for the biscuit and with Buddy's hard start to the year playing every finalist from last year in a row, he'll surely drop in price and be ready to be upgraded to, in round 8 as they have GWS, Gold Coast and then Melbourne.
But leaving out Buddy could backfire on you, as he's a big game player and if he produces one of his freakish games, he'll make you pay for not selecting him, leaving you behind the eight ball.

http://www.supercoachhq.com/16/post/2013/02/player-watch-lance-franklin.html

[SydneyRox]

not for me. too hard a start and price way too high.

[doogz]

Rather risk it on Ablett.  I want to save money, so cutting buddy away. 

[kfewster]

Good post  jroo, rec for you.

At this stage i have buddy in my team but im still sitting on the fence. The minor knee cyst surgery pre-season worries me a little as well.

Out of curiosity, ppl that dont have buddy in ur team, which other prelims do u have in yours fwds instead?

[brownmans muffins]

Good post thanks jroo
Hard not to have him in - he's still cheaper (but realistically wayyyyy more VALUABLE) than the elite mids we're all agonising over.
And good other point - what's the alternative.: ZorkoRockySteveCyril and $100k spare?: not exactly inspiring.

[The Mongoose]

Great write-up.

The only thing I'd add to this is it's not so much a case of "Do I pick Buddy" as "When do I pick Buddy".

As a key forward, his price is prone to some fluctuations (sometimes large fluctuations), and the argument can easily be made that he's a better upgrade target than a starter. That said, I don't think starting him is a bad idea either.

Definitely a matter of personal preference, but for me I'll be looking to upgrade to him.

[ronl]

If he starts off with a 160 v. Geelong, who don't have the greatest defense anymore, you'd really kick yourself, wouldn't you?
Anyone going for overall and wanting to get out of the blocks quickly would really have to have him imo.

[BB67th]

Great write up JROO, all the info there plain to see. But I will be starting with Buddy this year, you just have to have him in your team. If he has one of those big days early when he is not in your team, you can pretty much say goodbye to a league win that round.

[ajjewell]

I am starting him, I would prefer to have him and get a couple of 70's with the chance of some 120+'s rather than have some other forward who could have some 40's with a chance of some 100's to save myself $100k

[Mykonos FC]

I am starting him, I would prefer to have him and get a couple of 70's with the chance of some 120+'s rather than have some other forward who could have some 40's with a chance of some 100's to save myself $100k

I think you are being a bit overdramatic there... Not sure many 500-550k forwards have scored 40's?
Anyway I am not picking him at this stage as Cox is my f1 with Chappy and Rocky at f2 and f3, plus Dmart at f4.
Good options 100-150k cheaper imo and that money can be used to gain points on people in other areas.

[ajjewell]

I am starting him, I would prefer to have him and get a couple of 70's with the chance of some 120+'s rather than have some other forward who could have some 40's with a chance of some 100's to save myself $100k

I think you are being a bit overdramatic there... Not sure many 500-550k forwards have scored 40's?
Anyway I am not picking him at this stage as Cox is my f1 with Chappy and Rocky at f2 and f3, plus Dmart at f4.
Good options 100-150k cheaper imo and that money can be used to gain points on people in other areas.

I might be being a bit over dramatic but I am pretty sure Rioli let me down on a few occasions in the last couple of seasons and I reckon one of them was a 40's stinker along with another couple of 50's for good measure

[The Mongoose]

Rioli is probably more the exception than the rule for players in that price bracket.

We all know he's an amazing player, but in Supercoach terms he's Mr. Inconsistent.

[Frankfaust1]

not for me. too hard a start and price way too high.

I'll look for him as an upgrade.

[jimmytigs]

no-the argument for ablett is that he stars week in week out,buddy simply doesnt,other thing aginst him is the ruck dpp in his price range,then you got the likes of steviej & rockliff along with probably the best selection of underpriced forwards from lecras down in a long time,this is the year to leave out buddy & maybe hope that he really sucks in the first 3 weeks while a tom lee or macaffer catch fire then make the trade

im going cheap in the forwards with ryder/lecras/varcoe/knights/windelich/byrnes,macaffer/staker i will have rocky in mids along with 5 other premium mids,got my ruck dpp with cox/ryder & broughton/staker,a different strategy than most but even if i went more orthodox my forward line might look like this ryder/steviej/rockliff/lecras/varcoe/macaffer/staker/lee-just no room for buddy this year

[Jroo]

Thanks for the responses! 8)
atm, I'm leaving him out and the plan is to upgrade to him at round 8.