Adamant's 2013 DT

[Mr.Craig]

To be honest I am very cautious about anything written at Sports News First. They have a history of beating up injuries to improve their pageviews. I'll get nervous about him when one of the W.A papers or AFL.com weigh in.

[Adamant]

hanley or heppell over birchall but not a big deal birchall is solid.

murphy not a fan of him in DT. you have cash i would get boyd he doesn't miss games and is still the prime mover in the dogs midfield.

more so becasue all 4 of ablett swan pendles and murphy share the same bye also. which also includes adelaide and essendon which is why i say boyd over watson or thompson or Beams.

fyfe is tempting me for mid 5 also.

sandi is scary with injury at 30 but there is no better when fit and if he gets injured trading him is easy and painless with the new rules.

rooks don't matter until after nab cup we will all know more.

i like it, not a fan of robbo but he has huge potential, martin should bounce back rocky is a lock, and cox is a wait and see with this finger business but if he is fit and nicnat isnt he is almost a must have for starting side?

as i said i like it nice team, but i do prefer beams over pendles for DT. bit of a risk but again the trade rules make it worth it.

I'm not a fan of Hanley at all. :P He is extremely inconsistent and won't be a top 6 defender. I don't mind Heppell, but I slightly prefer Birch at this stage and feel safer with him in there.

Funny you say that about Boyd, I actually just downgraded him to Murphy before I made this thread. Murphy is great value though - Priced at 101, but I reckon he'll go 108+. The tags are an issue though, and I might trade him back to Boyd.

Barring injury, Sandi is locked for me. I think he is definitely worth the risk with 44 trades. He'll be a top 2 averaging ruck anyway, so just sideways him when he goes down.

Robbo is one of my biggest locks for 2013. Here is a thread I made on him recently: http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,71278.0/viewResults.html

Pendles is also one of my absolute locks and I'd take him over Beams any day of the week. I found this quote just now from a Pendles v Beams thread.

Below are '12 averages for both players. R1 excl as Beams missed. R10 is excluded to omit Pendles' injury affected score and R11 to R15 is the time he was recovering.


Averages ----  R2 - R9  ----  R11 - R15  ----  R16 - R23
Pendles           117                0 (inj)                113
Beams            108                 116                   127


Pendles was scoring pretty well prior to his injury and didn't seem to return to the same levels in the second half of the season. His R16 - R23 scores includes an 11 tackle 142 against the Hawks in R17 plus only 1 other 120+ score (129 v WC in R22). It seems that he never fully recovered from his leg injury.

Beams, OTOH, started well and just kept improving, managing an amazing 127 average over the final portion of the season. His scoring wasn't negatively affected by either Pendles' loss or his return.

So... from this I'd say that Pendles is the better value for money when selecting a starting Pie as he could potentially get back to his '11 form - remembering that he was the third most expensive player at the start of the '12 season.

Coming off his 127 average at the back end of the season, Beams is fully priced and therefore offers less value in a starting line-up. Personally, I see him as a great upgrade target once if he has a flat couple of weeks.

Beams has only had one good DT year, whereas Pendles has averaged 105+ the last 3 years and is underpriced. Cheers Colli.

[tbagrocks]

What has happend to your taste for Duff? ???

I would really like to have Robbo as well, might just have to force him in somehow even at Dusty or Wright's expense

Murphy mate all over Cotchin ;)

[Colliwobblers]

all good points Adamant, but I wouldn't say Beams averaging 102 from 16 games in 2011 while battling injury ( which made him withdraw himself from the finals) was NOT a good year ?

you can't go wrong with pendles, most consistent elite mid there is or very close to it.

just think Beams is the next Swan/Ablett but that is being said about Cotchin too - who can know.

I'm not a fan of Hanley either but if he is going to rotate through the midfield ?  problem is we hear this about so many players every pre-season don't we.....

Good thread on Robbo, he played mainly fwd but a bit through the middle, if he has less midfield time under Mick will be my only concern with Gibbs going in for sure...  but as you said the trades are there if he doesn't fire but by the look of your stats provided he is pretty certain to be consistent.

[Adamant]

What has happend to your taste for Duff? ???

I would really like to have Robbo as well, might just have to force him in somehow even at Dusty or Wright's expense

Murphy mate all over Cotchin ;)

Duffman has West Coast round 1, he averages just 61.7 against them in his career. If he looks really good in the NAB Cup though, I may have to slide him back in.

[Adamant]

all good points Adamant, but I wouldn't say Beams averaging 102 from 16 games in 2011 while battling injury ( which made him withdraw himself from the finals) was NOT a good year ?

you can't go wrong with pendles, most consistent elite mid there is or very close to it.

just think Beams is the next Swan/Ablett but that is being said about Cotchin too - who can know.

I'm not a fan of Hanley either but if he is going to rotate through the midfield ?  problem is we hear this about so many players every pre-season don't we.....

Good thread on Robbo, he played mainly fwd but a bit through the middle, if he has less midfield time under Mick will be my only concern with Gibbs going in for sure...  but as you said the trades are there if he doesn't fire but by the look of your stats provided he is pretty certain to be consistent.

Hmm, true. Well, Swan, Ablett and Pendles are all locked. Fyfe is close to locked at M5 too. This leaves the M4 position open to 3 guys - Boyd, Beams and Murphy.

Murphy will probably average the least, but is definitely the best value out of the 3 and saves me 70k+.

Boydy has averaged 115, 116 and 115 the last 3 years and I can't see him slowing down. Obviously doesn't have much value, but will once again be a top 4 mid.

Beams is the most riskiest IMO. He has the potential to go 120+, but I'm still not completely sold on him. Is 3 x Collingwood Uber premo's too much?

At this stage, I think I'm leaning towards Boyd, but still not sure.

[Colliwobblers]

i'm tough on murphy because last season was my first with him and it was rough for him he did not handle the tag too well, he should adapt and lift, he has a great coach and judd to teach him and he is excellent value.

not only has boyd been ultra consistent he never misses a game.

beams is a risk, but so is ablett at his price...

ablett and murphy share the pies bye so the structure is tough however you go other than boyd....

oh and too much pie is never enough :)

[betch ya]

i think carlton are in for a big year - and murphys score will rise accordingly. wouldnt choose beams - paying top $$ and im not convinced he will improve. yes, he will still score well but not well enough to keep his price where it is now. mid $500,000's will be his price for most of year. pendlebury imo is my early tip for the brownlow as long as he doesnt get injured.

so murphy for your M4

[Colliwobblers]

i think carlton are in for a big year - and murphys score will rise accordingly. wouldnt choose beams - paying top $$ and im not convinced he will improve. yes, he will still score well but not well enough to keep his price where it is now. mid $500,000's will be his price for most of year. pendlebury imo is my early tip for the brownlow as long as he doesnt get injured.

so murphy for your M4

problem is Collingwood, Carlton ,Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, and not o much GWS share the same bye.

while you don't count your entire teams scores through the bye rounds you still are best having a balance of premiums out each bye round surely?

but again we went through this last season and if the guy you pick outscores the guy you "could have picked" for bye compatibility by 10 points a round each round up until the byes then you are in front regardless of playing a bye round a premium down...

[betch ya]

i think carlton are in for a big year - and murphys score will rise accordingly. wouldnt choose beams - paying top $$ and im not convinced he will improve. yes, he will still score well but not well enough to keep his price where it is now. mid $500,000's will be his price for most of year. pendlebury imo is my early tip for the brownlow as long as he doesnt get injured.

so murphy for your M4

problem is Collingwood, Carlton ,Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, and not o much GWS share the same bye.

while you don't count your entire teams scores through the bye rounds you still are best having a balance of premiums out each bye round surely?

but again we went through this last season and if the guy you pick outscores the guy you "could have picked" for bye compatibility by 10 points a round each round up until the byes then you are in front regardless of playing a bye round a premium down...

true, but with the changes to trades this year im not overly concerned about byes - ill pick players based on the 22 games they will play, not the 1 they dont. if my score is affected for 1 round but have the best possible team for the other rounds then so be it. most will be in the same boat.

that much is sure to happen before the byes anyway - unexpected injuries, precautionary resting etc just gonna take it as it comes

[Adamant]

Have just changed it up structurally.




The changes are:

OUT: M.Murphy + M.Jones + J.Neade + T.Lee
IN: A.Embley + O.Wines + S.Byrnes + C.Knights

Not sure if I like it better or not. It makes my overall team stronger, but the midfield looks very weak with Fyfe and Embley at M4 & M5.

[Windigo]

Not liking this team now. The mids are where the points are, now your going 3 premiums and then Fyfe+Embers.

Fwd line is popping...But still.  :-\

[Jukes]

OUT: M.Murphy + M.Jones + J.Neade + T.Lee
IN: A.Embley + O.Wines + S.Byrnes + C.Knights

OUT: 106 + 74 + 58 + 60
IN: 86 + 81 + 78 + 75

OUT: 296
IN: 320

I much prefer these four to the previous four. Will score more and the JS is far superior.

[Adamant]

Updated again, like the balance of it now.

[T Dog]

nice work Adamant. With 5 rooks in mids no consideration of a DPP....as a swingman?