Sane or Insane?

[Chelskiman]

How many trolls on one forum :o

Yeah the great GAJ might drop price but those stats are unreasonable, stop trolling  ;)

+1

GAJ is a machine, no way he will be averaging around 112, lol. 

[Ziplock]

Agree with fark, also reckon GAJ is a very decent chance to drop to 110-115. Can't see Swanny dropping below 125 unless the drug rumours are true.

Agree with fark, also reckon GAJ is a very decent chance to drop to 110-115. Can't see Swanny dropping below 125 unless the drug rumours are true.

Gaz i see as 112 average. How he ave 120 at gold coast last year is ridiculous cant do it 2 years in a row. Ablett and Swan will still be top 4 mids but im just gonna wait til they are a bit cheaper

Gaz i see as 112 average. How he ave 120 at gold coast last year is ridiculous cant do it 2 years in a row. Ablett and Swan will still be top 4 mids but im just gonna wait til they are a bit cheaper

how'd he average 125 at GC? because he's the best midfielder of his generation. Last year ablett came in with no preseason and averaged only 91 over the first 5 rounds. Then he tweaked his knee and got subbed for 23. And he still averaged over 112. Making a groundless statement like that when he's had an almost full pre-season is ridiculous.

Jukes: do you know how hard it is to pick a good captain week in, week out without swan or ablett? It's flowering difficult and a gamble at best. I dont have the exact stats since most 2012 stuff on prices is gone, but from memory swan only dropped 50k from his starting price at his lowest.

Swan had only one score under 100 all year (95) including finals. And had 5 games over 150.
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/year.php?firstname=Dane&surname=Swan&year=2012

Ablett only had 4 (99, 97, 89, 61) and had 4 games over 150.
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/year.php?firstname=Gary&surname=Ablett%20jnr&year=2012

they'll both be way too expensive to get in before round 7 at the earliest. Last year Swan averaged 127.5 over the opening 7 rounds and ablett averaged 128.4 (although missed a couple through injury).

who can match that? almost nobody. Stanton did, which was amazing... until he hit midseason and averaged like flowering 80 afterwards.

Unless they're both under huge injury clouds coming into round one, or you have some insane inside information that makes you think someone like murphy will hit 120+, you're a hack and a spud of a coach if you don't start one of these blokes.

if you're going cheap premiums, this is how it would have worked out last year, if you'd picked the cream of the crop which were beams, watson, cotchin, deledio. Honestly I should leave lids out since everyone had him, and almost nobody tipped him for 110+, but, nonetheless. Stantons mediocre final average disqualifies him from selection.
Round/Highest Discount Premium Score/ HighestSwan or ablett
1/ Cotchin 120/ Ablett 136
2/ Deledio 140/ Ablett 143
3/ Cotchin 110/ Ablett 160
4/ Cotchin 105/ Swan 134
5/ Beams 121/ Swan 171
6/ Beams 137/ Swan 117
7/ Beams 122/ Swan 143
avg/ 122/ 143
none of those blokes were super cheap either to start with- all in the 90-100 range, and more to the point, just guessing on them for captaincy could be disasterous... for instance, some low scores by those 4
1/ 91
2/ 74
3/ 93
4/ 85
5/ 101
6/ 61
7/ 96
avg: 85.85

compared to the lowest scores for swan/ ablett
1/102
2/116
3/109
4/ 97
5/ 171
6/117
7/ 106
avg: 116

both of those stats are warped slightly in the discount premiums favour since ablett missed two games with injury (if any of you say this was always going to happen, then you're a flowering lying retard. Injuries are impossible to predict- players like ablett  always run the risk of resting/ injury, but predicting when it's going to happen is no certainty... if you're dumb enough not to start ablett since he 'may' get injured you sure as hell aren't going to trade him in.)

point is, in a best case scenario from both teams, remembering non-swan/ablett have more players to pool from, you're down 147 points by not starting swan/ablett overall. In a worst case scenario for the bargain team, they're down by 400 points overall. In a worst case scenario for both teams, the bargain team is down 211 points. In a worst case scenario for swan/ ablett, swan/ablett team are down 42 points.

TL;DR
Fark and jukes are agreeing on something, subsequently, it's almost definitely wrong.

[Jukes]

I dont see many other mid options

Am not starting with ablett or swan because they are ridiculously overpriced. All it will take is one bad game early on and i can save 100-150k.

Pendles lock

Selwood Lock

Now you can either go oldies like boyd or thompson. Boyd is at bulldogs who brang in many young mids this year could hamper his scoring. Thompson had a poor finish to year last year and dont thnk he may drop a few ppg this year.

Then there is Watson, Cotchin and JPK. Tbe players with only 1 years worth of premium behind them. Watson has corkie and drug scandal atm so rule him out. Cotchin will cop a heavy tag but is still in contention. JPK will cop more attention and ismt really 115 premo yet

Then theres youngsters on verge of premium top 5 status. Redden, S.Selwood, Fyfe. Out of them Redden is only one im really keen on.

So Pendles, Jelwood, Cotchin, Redden leaves you with 4 premo mids. Murphy is at a min gonna ave 100 at a max ave 120 he has to slot in there at his price.

How is Jelwood a lock? I can't see him averaging 110+ with his gamestyle. He's consistent, but much better options IMO.

Selwood first 11 games:
Hawthorn, 115.11 average
North Melbourne, 100 average
Carlton, 105.57 average
Sydney, 93.27
Western Bulldogs, 101.12
Richmond, 104.38
Essendon, 107.67
Collingwood, 103.22
Port Adelaide, 91.29
Gold Coast, 118.67
GWS, 62...remember, it's GWS; he won't spud it up against them twice in a row.

He'll probably average 110-115 in these 12 rounds before his bye, both because of his draw and his natural progression (turns 25 in March). The only three teams he averages less than 90 against he plays after his bye in Fremantle, St Kilda, and West Coast. When it comes to his bye round you can just straight swap to the highest performing player or keep him and hopefully he can retain a 110+ average.

[Holz]

swan + ablett without injury will drop maybe 5 points each this year in a close to worst case scenario. For swans case if you're not starting him you're losing a mammoth 26ppg including captain bonus.

I agree that you should start with Swan or Ablett, but I strongly disagree with people playing the captain bonus card.

It's basically saying that no matter how good your team is that don't have Swan or Ablett, no player on your side will score as much as your captain as Swan/Ablett.

Say your midfield premiums are Cotchin, Pendlebury, Stanton, Selwood and Murphy (not mine). If you pick your captain smartly from these 5, your captain should score as much as Swan and Ablett, if not more if you nail the highest scorer from them.

Get what I'm saying?

yes thats correct if you nail your captain pick each week than you will score as many points as playing one of these guys captain each week. However good luck doing that.

Plus I go Ablett and Swan and if you nail the captain chice between those 2 each week you could have a huge average. I think i averaged 137 from captains last year doing that.

[timmyparso]

To answer the question, both Jukes and The F.A.R.K are INSANE!!! :o

[Ziplock]

I dont see many other mid options

Am not starting with ablett or swan because they are ridiculously overpriced. All it will take is one bad game early on and i can save 100-150k.

Pendles lock

Selwood Lock

Now you can either go oldies like boyd or thompson. Boyd is at bulldogs who brang in many young mids this year could hamper his scoring. Thompson had a poor finish to year last year and dont thnk he may drop a few ppg this year.

Then there is Watson, Cotchin and JPK. Tbe players with only 1 years worth of premium behind them. Watson has corkie and drug scandal atm so rule him out. Cotchin will cop a heavy tag but is still in contention. JPK will cop more attention and ismt really 115 premo yet

Then theres youngsters on verge of premium top 5 status. Redden, S.Selwood, Fyfe. Out of them Redden is only one im really keen on.

So Pendles, Jelwood, Cotchin, Redden leaves you with 4 premo mids. Murphy is at a min gonna ave 100 at a max ave 120 he has to slot in there at his price.

How is Jelwood a lock? I can't see him averaging 110+ with his gamestyle. He's consistent, but much better options IMO.

Selwood first 11 games:
Hawthorn, 115.11 average
North Melbourne, 100 average
Carlton, 105.57 average
Sydney, 93.27
Western Bulldogs, 101.12
Richmond, 104.38
Essendon, 107.67
Collingwood, 103.22
Port Adelaide, 91.29
Gold Coast, 118.67
GWS, 62...remember, it's GWS; he won't spud it up against them twice in a row.

He'll probably average 110-115 in these 12 rounds before his bye, both because of his draw and his natural progression (turns 25 in March). The only three teams he averages less than 90 against he plays after his bye in Fremantle, St Kilda, and West Coast. When it comes to his bye round you can just straight swap to the highest performing player or keep him and hopefully he can retain a 110+ average.

he scored 62 against GWS largely because he was tagged so efficently. That being said, I've just removed that score, and focused on the averages of his first 10 games.... which lead selwood to average.... 103.9 over the first 10 rounds. So, in other words, basically what he's priced at.

Compared to let say, ablett (going back from 2007 to roughly equalise the points, since he averaged less than 70 points in his first 3 years)

STK: 104
Sydney: 135
Brisbane: 113
Port: 109
GWS: 103
Freo: 106
Melb: 108
WBD: 114
Haw: 125
Geel: 98

which over the opening 10 rounds gives him an average of 113 from a pool of 75 games.

[Justin Bieber]

This random guy says it's not his year.

Oh no let's not pick him... ::)

[Jukes]

I dont see many other mid options

Am not starting with ablett or swan because they are ridiculously overpriced. All it will take is one bad game early on and i can save 100-150k.

Pendles lock

Selwood Lock

Now you can either go oldies like boyd or thompson. Boyd is at bulldogs who brang in many young mids this year could hamper his scoring. Thompson had a poor finish to year last year and dont thnk he may drop a few ppg this year.

Then there is Watson, Cotchin and JPK. Tbe players with only 1 years worth of premium behind them. Watson has corkie and drug scandal atm so rule him out. Cotchin will cop a heavy tag but is still in contention. JPK will cop more attention and ismt really 115 premo yet

Then theres youngsters on verge of premium top 5 status. Redden, S.Selwood, Fyfe. Out of them Redden is only one im really keen on.

So Pendles, Jelwood, Cotchin, Redden leaves you with 4 premo mids. Murphy is at a min gonna ave 100 at a max ave 120 he has to slot in there at his price.

How is Jelwood a lock? I can't see him averaging 110+ with his gamestyle. He's consistent, but much better options IMO.

Selwood first 11 games:
Hawthorn, 115.11 average
North Melbourne, 100 average
Carlton, 105.57 average
Sydney, 93.27
Western Bulldogs, 101.12
Richmond, 104.38
Essendon, 107.67
Collingwood, 103.22
Port Adelaide, 91.29
Gold Coast, 118.67
GWS, 62...remember, it's GWS; he won't spud it up against them twice in a row.

He'll probably average 110-115 in these 12 rounds before his bye, both because of his draw and his natural progression (turns 25 in March). The only three teams he averages less than 90 against he plays after his bye in Fremantle, St Kilda, and West Coast. When it comes to his bye round you can just straight swap to the highest performing player or keep him and hopefully he can retain a 110+ average.

he scored 62 against GWS largely because he was tagged so efficently. That being said, I've just removed that score, and focused on the averages of his first 10 games.... which lead selwood to average.... 103.9 over the first 10 rounds. So, in other words, basically what he's priced at.

Compared to let say, ablett (going back from 2007 to roughly equalise the points, since he averaged less than 70 points in his first 3 years)

STK: 104
Sydney: 135
Brisbane: 113
Port: 109
GWS: 103
Freo: 106
Melb: 108
WBD: 114
Haw: 125
Geel: 98

which over the opening 10 rounds gives him an average of 113 from a pool of 75 games.

Which brings up my points on his natural progression. He will perform better this season for two reasons,  in both performance and dt. The first is because he's entering his prime of mid-to-late 20s (he's 24 now, 25 in March), the second because he will step it up as captain in his second season in the gig with the experience he took from 2012.

Posted a 109 average in 2011, why not that and more in 2013?

[Ziplock]

Geelong isn't as strong as they were in 2011. Players slowing down like corey,  bartel etc. means selwood is getting tagged more.  Theire disposal game isn't as high as it used- ranked only 10th in the league last year.

I'm not saying selwood isn't a good pick, 110 avg would be fine at his price. As a legit captaincy option over ablett/ swan though? not a chance.

[Jukes]

Selwood can beat most tags easily, unlike a certain similar-priced Mr. Murphy.

[elephants]

I don't think Murph will average 110+ like some are saying, they're only looking at his positives. He's an attractive option with new coach and gaining experience plus possibly being captain, but opposition sides have wised up to his talent and are finding out he is highly susceptible to the tag and are putting him number 1 on the tag list ahead of Judd. Was tagged out of many games last season.

But who knows. Good chance of finding himself a spot in Goodfellas early, seeing as I'm opening with ROK for the first three and planning to trade him out, probably to Fyfe but who knows. Murph has a big first two and he's in.

I don't do this often and probably never to my arch-rival but...

+1 Jukesy, +1.

[Jukes]

I don't think Murph will average 110+ like some are saying, they're only looking at his positives. He's an attractive option with new coach and gaining experience plus possibly being captain, but opposition sides have wised up to his talent and are finding out he is highly susceptible to the tag and are putting him number 1 on the tag list ahead of Judd. Was tagged out of many games last season.

But who knows. Good chance of finding himself a spot in Goodfellas early, seeing as I'm opening with ROK for the first three and planning to trade him out, probably to Fyfe but who knows. Murph has a big first two and he's in.

I don't do this often and probably never to my arch-rival but...

+1 Jukesy, +1.

what is this...

[Ziplock]

Selwood can beat most tags easily, unlike a certain similar-priced Mr. Murphy.

if he can beat most tags then why did he only average 103 this season?

Murphy at least has an injury as an excuse

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/year.php?firstname=Marc&surname=Murphy&year=2012

if you look here his scores take a huge drop after injury.

FTR though, against STK, I'd seriously consider playing a rookie over him though :P

[Justin Bieber]

^. I laughed when Jukes said Selwood can beat most tags.