Sane or Insane?

Started by Money, February 06, 2013, 12:59:04 AM

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Money

I was speaking with a mate and mentioned I had Marc Murphy in my team, he then said to take him out cause he doesnt think it will be Murphy's year..... thoughts on this comment?

Cicjose

murphy will be in a lot of teams come end of year

Artax

Not in my team yet but nothing insane about taking Murph

hardnut

more plain than insane, I haven't got him but I'd consider him a reasonably safe bet. 100ppg worst case scenario, will cop heavy tags I reckon after Ratten started hiding him last year.

Chelskiman

He's underpriced for what he can produce.  Could easily go 115+ this year.  A more realistic average would be around 108-111 though.  I've got him in my team at the moment and I have no complaints.  I almost started him last year but thankfully started Watson instead.  Had to jump on this year though.

Ricochet

Quote from: Chelskiman on February 06, 2013, 01:09:43 AM
He's underpriced for what he can produce.  Could easily go 115+ this year.  A more realistic average would be around 108-111 though.  I've got him in my team at the moment and I have no complaints.  I almost started him last year but thankfully started Watson instead.  Had to jump on this year though.
Exactly Chelsk, A premium 110 midfielder at his price? You have to have him

The F.A.R.K.

I dont see many other mid options

Am not starting with ablett or swan because they are ridiculously overpriced. All it will take is one bad game early on and i can save 100-150k.

Pendles lock

Selwood Lock

Now you can either go oldies like boyd or thompson. Boyd is at bulldogs who brang in many young mids this year could hamper his scoring. Thompson had a poor finish to year last year and dont thnk he may drop a few ppg this year.

Then there is Watson, Cotchin and JPK. Tbe players with only 1 years worth of premium behind them. Watson has corkie and drug scandal atm so rule him out. Cotchin will cop a heavy tag but is still in contention. JPK will cop more attention and ismt really 115 premo yet

Then theres youngsters on verge of premium top 5 status. Redden, S.Selwood, Fyfe. Out of them Redden is only one im really keen on.

So Pendles, Jelwood, Cotchin, Redden leaves you with 4 premo mids. Murphy is at a min gonna ave 100 at a max ave 120 he has to slot in there at his price.


Jukes

I don't think Murph will average 110+ like some are saying, they're only looking at his positives. He's an attractive option with new coach and gaining experience plus possibly being captain, but opposition sides have wised up to his talent and are finding out he is highly susceptible to the tag and are putting him number 1 on the tag list ahead of Judd. Was tagged out of many games last season.

But who knows. Good chance of finding himself a spot in Goodfellas early, seeing as I'm opening with ROK for the first three and planning to trade him out, probably to Fyfe but who knows. Murph has a big first two and he's in.

Ziplock

Quote from: The F.A.R.K. on February 06, 2013, 03:08:43 AM
I dont see many other mid options

Am not starting with ablett or swan because they are ridiculously overpriced. All it will take is one bad game early on and i can save 100-150k.


Pendles lock

Selwood Lock

Now you can either go oldies like boyd or thompson. Boyd is at bulldogs who brang in many young mids this year could hamper his scoring. Thompson had a poor finish to year last year and dont thnk he may drop a few ppg this year.

Then there is Watson, Cotchin and JPK. Tbe players with only 1 years worth of premium behind them. Watson has corkie and drug scandal atm so rule him out. Cotchin will cop a heavy tag but is still in contention. JPK will cop more attention and ismt really 115 premo yet

Then theres youngsters on verge of premium top 5 status. Redden, S.Selwood, Fyfe. Out of them Redden is only one im really keen on.

So Pendles, Jelwood, Cotchin, Redden leaves you with 4 premo mids. Murphy is at a min gonna ave 100 at a max ave 120 he has to slot in there at his price.

anything you've said is now invalid.

swan + ablett without injury will drop maybe 5 points each this year in a close to worst case scenario. For swans case if you're not starting him you're losing a mammoth 26ppg including captain bonus.

neither of them are 'ridiculously overpriced' both have been premiums for years and are the best DTers in history.  A small decline is possible, but honestly, I can't see either of them dropping much. Both are going to be damn hard to bring in as well- lets say your rookies top out at around 250-300k, you're going to need to use around 3-4 trades to bring in any one of ablett/ swan, that's 6-8 trades all up... that's a massive chunk of your cash, and even with unlimited trades, a huge amount of trades. Trying to bring them both in will flower your teams progress up.

Jukes

Quote from: Ziplock on February 06, 2013, 03:21:56 AM
swan + ablett without injury will drop maybe 5 points each this year in a close to worst case scenario. For swans case if you're not starting him you're losing a mammoth 26ppg including captain bonus.

I agree that you should start with Swan or Ablett, but I strongly disagree with people playing the captain bonus card.

It's basically saying that no matter how good your team is that don't have Swan or Ablett, no player on your side will score as much as your captain as Swan/Ablett.

Say your midfield premiums are Cotchin, Pendlebury, Stanton, Selwood and Murphy (not mine). If you pick your captain smartly from these 5, your captain should score as much as Swan and Ablett, if not more if you nail the highest scorer from them.

Get what I'm saying?

The F.A.R.K.

Quote from: Ziplock on February 06, 2013, 03:21:56 AM
Quote from: The F.A.R.K. on February 06, 2013, 03:08:43 AM
I dont see many other mid options

Am not starting with ablett or swan because they are ridiculously overpriced. All it will take is one bad game early on and i can save 100-150k.


Pendles lock

Selwood Lock

Now you can either go oldies like boyd or thompson. Boyd is at bulldogs who brang in many young mids this year could hamper his scoring. Thompson had a poor finish to year last year and dont thnk he may drop a few ppg this year.

Then there is Watson, Cotchin and JPK. Tbe players with only 1 years worth of premium behind them. Watson has corkie and drug scandal atm so rule him out. Cotchin will cop a heavy tag but is still in contention. JPK will cop more attention and ismt really 115 premo yet

Then theres youngsters on verge of premium top 5 status. Redden, S.Selwood, Fyfe. Out of them Redden is only one im really keen on.

So Pendles, Jelwood, Cotchin, Redden leaves you with 4 premo mids. Murphy is at a min gonna ave 100 at a max ave 120 he has to slot in there at his price.

anything you've said is now invalid.

swan + ablett without injury will drop maybe 5 points each this year in a close to worst case scenario. For swans case if you're not starting him you're losing a mammoth 26ppg including captain bonus.

neither of them are 'ridiculously overpriced' both have been premiums for years and are the best DTers in history.  A small decline is possible, but honestly, I can't see either of them dropping much. Both are going to be damn hard to bring in as well- lets say your rookies top out at around 250-300k, you're going to need to use around 3-4 trades to bring in any one of ablett/ swan, that's 6-8 trades all up... that's a massive chunk of your cash, and even with unlimited trades, a huge amount of trades. Trying to bring them both in will flower your teams progress up.

Both have injury history, ablett overperformed last year and can see him ave 110-115 this year so should drop 100-150k. Swan stsrting to age and has drug rumours circulating + injury past he will probs ave 120. So again could drop 100-150k. Im banking on swan/ablett having a single bad game in the first 5 rounds which will mean round 8/9 i can look to move wines and omeara to premo mids

Jukes

Agree with fark, also reckon GAJ is a very decent chance to drop to 110-115. Can't see Swanny dropping below 125 unless the drug rumours are true.

The F.A.R.K.

Quote from: Jukes on February 06, 2013, 03:46:09 AM
Agree with fark, also reckon GAJ is a very decent chance to drop to 110-115. Can't see Swanny dropping below 125 unless the drug rumours are true.

Gaz i see as 112 average. How he ave 120 at gold coast last year is ridiculous cant do it 2 years in a row. Ablett and Swan will still be top 4 mids but im just gonna wait til they are a bit cheaper

tbagrocks

How many trolls on one forum :o

Yeah the great GAJ might drop price but those stats are unreasonable, stop trolling  ;)

Adamant

Quote from: The F.A.R.K. on February 06, 2013, 03:08:43 AM
I dont see many other mid options

Am not starting with ablett or swan because they are ridiculously overpriced. All it will take is one bad game early on and i can save 100-150k.

Pendles lock

Selwood Lock

Now you can either go oldies like boyd or thompson. Boyd is at bulldogs who brang in many young mids this year could hamper his scoring. Thompson had a poor finish to year last year and dont thnk he may drop a few ppg this year.

Then there is Watson, Cotchin and JPK. Tbe players with only 1 years worth of premium behind them. Watson has corkie and drug scandal atm so rule him out. Cotchin will cop a heavy tag but is still in contention. JPK will cop more attention and ismt really 115 premo yet

Then theres youngsters on verge of premium top 5 status. Redden, S.Selwood, Fyfe. Out of them Redden is only one im really keen on.

So Pendles, Jelwood, Cotchin, Redden leaves you with 4 premo mids. Murphy is at a min gonna ave 100 at a max ave 120 he has to slot in there at his price.

How is Jelwood a lock? I can't see him averaging 110+ with his gamestyle. He's consistent, but much better options IMO.