Ask Ziplock Pre-season

[Ziplock]

Why no love for Cotch?

I don't rate players after a break out year, especially young ones- I'd pick boyd before cotchin.

heres my basic post on it

haha, mines nearly reversed.

I would go pendles> boyd>Watson>cotchin> beams

It's a really bad idea to pick a player post breakout.

for instance, midfield premiums (I'm taking an average of 108+ as a premium average, and once they surpass that they've 'broken out')

Swan 09- 119.1 age: 25
10- 123

Ablett: 08- 111.7 age: 24
09- 118

Boyd: 10- 115 age: 28
11-116

Pendlebury: 11- 117 age: 23
12- 110

Thompson: 11- 109 age: 28
12-105

Mitchell- 11-112 age: 29
12: 101

Murphy: 11- 111 age: 24
12-101

Chapman: 09- 113 age: 28
10- 114

Goddard: 10- 113 age: 25
11-96

Montagna:09- 116 age: 26
10-112

Bartel: 07- 114 age: 24
08- 113

Rockliff- 11-112 age: 21
12- 93

gibbs doesnt quite fit the critera, but kind of demonstrates my point anyway

anyway, we have 12 samples there of premiums (not including gibbs)

only 4 of which increased their average the next year (swan, ablett, boyd, chapman), by an average of 3 ppg

the remaining 8 had their average decrease by an average of 9.1 ppg

the average age for the players who increased their average the year after break out was 26.25

the average age of the players who decreased their average the year after break out was 25

the biggest issue with these stats is that it comes from such a small pool- but from it you can see that 75% of 'premium' mids, after their first break out year, suffer an average drop of 9.1 ppg, triple that of the 25% of premium mids who increase their average by only 3 ppg.

the average age of the players who drop in average (25) is more than a year younger than the average age of players who increase their average.

both cotchin and beams were 22 when they broke out this year... that definitely slides them into the younger category.

on top of that, bemas has the concern of ball coming back, affecting his scores, while cotchin, as can be seen in this post by CF

Every time he was tagged (according to monty), he scored sub-100.

Sorry Toga that's incorrect. The lock just shows he was tagged effectively. If you hover over the icons you will find he was tagged in these games...

Team - DT/SC
Brisbane - 115/147
Essendon - 114/120
GWS - 94/89
St Kilda - 68/73
Western Bulldogs - 85/108
Richmond - 113/160
Brisbane - 99/117
Gold Coast - 92/98
St Kilda - 76/78

Average - 95.1/110


So even in the games he was tagged he still average a very healthy 110 in SC!

only averages 95.1 in DT when tagged. I don't know about beams stats, honestly I think I've crunched enough already :P

oddly enough, I actually wrote my order

pendles> boyd>Watson>cotchin> beams

before I looked any of that up specifically :S but, it's still pretty much concurrent. Explanations for my ratings

1. Pendles: He's young, has proven to average 115+, and you can attribute a lot of his drop in scoring due to his leg fracture, making him underpriced, but still premium.
2. Boyd: Proven premium, also unique starter this year, only concern is his age... honestly, I think he should be fine though, hasn't really shown much evidence of sliding as of yet. The age is the only reason why he isn't no.1
3. Watson: Goddard may shift the tag occasionally, that being said, he's already the number one tag- and as the above stats showed, older players are *generally* more likely to increase their average post break out, and at 28 in 2012 (from memory), watson fits that build.
4. Cotchin- young enough that its a concern he'll drop his average, that being said, he doesn't have the same concerns as beams
5. Beams- also young enough to be a concern post break out, but on top of that, hasnt really dealt with much tagging yet, and has ball coming back.


*note* just realised I missed redden in my calculations: no big deal, he just drops the average age even more for average points decreased, although he drops the points decreased to like 8.8


my point is made eitherway- anything else anyone says is speculation and opinion, not stats ;)

[Ziplock]

Hey, Zip!

Just another "vs" scenario. 

Maric + Sylvia v Goldstein + Robinson?

goldy + robinson.


but cox + sylvia over both :P

[Chelskiman]

I can afford Cox/Sylvia, so that's some food for thought.

I would go pendles> boyd>Watson>cotchin> beams

Why do you rate Watson above Cotch?  Both had breakout years, and both had never averaged 100+ before last year.  Cotchin is also five years younger, so surely can only get better, whilst Watson you think isn't going to improve a great deal on his 112 average, if he improves at all.

[Bill Manspeaker]

sorry if this has already been asked mate - Byrnes or Varcoe?

cheers zip!

[Ziplock]

I can afford Cox/Sylvia, so that's some food for thought.

I would go pendles> boyd>Watson>cotchin> beams

Why do you rate Watson above Cotch?  Both had breakout years, and both had never averaged 100+ before last year.  Cotchin is also five years younger, so surely can only get better, whilst Watson you think isn't going to improve a great deal on his 112 average, if he improves at all.

yeah, I thought you might have.

I've rated watson above cotchin because he's older... older players that break out are less likely to drop their average, and I think goddard will help him as well.

[Ziplock]

sorry if this has already been asked mate - Byrnes or Varcoe?

cheers zip!

I'm sitting in the Brynes camp atm- is cheaper, has averaged 80 before, puts him clear above varcoe for me, especially since he doesn't have significant injury concerns.

[Bill Manspeaker]

thanks mate, had Varcoe.. but Byrnes is in my side at the moment! lets hope for another 80+ average :D

[Chelskiman]

I've rated watson above cotchin because he's older... older players that break out are less likely to drop their average, and I think goddard will help him as well.

Fair enough.  Cotch seems to have put his injury worries behind him and I think he still has room for improvement, and he's already class as it is.  In my opinion he's very similar to Ablett, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pump out Ablett like scores in the very near future (maybe not this year but next).  I think he can push his average up to 115 this year.  I do think Watson is a class act though, it's why I started with him last year, but he's going to be an upgrade target for me (along with Boyd and Pendles).

[Colliwobblers]

OK Zip I always ask you 3 questions every preseason so here is question #1.

Jordan Russell - Pick 9 in the 04 draft, wasted at Carlton, why not they wasted Gibbs and the best list in the league for years so we expect waste from Carlton - don't expect it this season they will smash it !

but i digress...

Collingwood has Shaw off half back, that's all they have, clarke meh, key defenders maxwell ,, yeah so as i said they have Shaw.

They could really use this guy, but will they? at $ 270K ish I am tempted and I've been watching this bloke for years wondering what the?

2009 - 20 games averaged 74
2010 - 23 games averaged 80
2011 - 16 games averaged 71
2012 - 7 games averaged 57

i am seriously considering starting him if he plays nab cup looks good and is named for round 1.

But what do YOU think?

[Ricochet]

I've rated watson above cotchin because he's older... older players that break out are less likely to drop their average, and I think goddard will help him as well.

Fair enough.  Cotch seems to have put his injury worries behind him and I think he still has room for improvement, and he's already class as it is.  In my opinion he's very similar to Ablett, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pump out Ablett like scores in the very near future (maybe not this year but next).  I think he can push his average up to 115 this year.  I do think Watson is a class act though, it's why I started with him last year, but he's going to be an upgrade target for me (along with Boyd and Pendles).

Pendles as an upgrade target?

[Chelskiman]

I've rated watson above cotchin because he's older... older players that break out are less likely to drop their average, and I think goddard will help him as well.

Fair enough.  Cotch seems to have put his injury worries behind him and I think he still has room for improvement, and he's already class as it is.  In my opinion he's very similar to Ablett, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pump out Ablett like scores in the very near future (maybe not this year but next).  I think he can push his average up to 115 this year.  I do think Watson is a class act though, it's why I started with him last year, but he's going to be an upgrade target for me (along with Boyd and Pendles).

Pendles as an upgrade target?

Yeah.  Currently starting with Swan, Ablett, Cotchin, Redden and Murphy.

[Tominator]

Mark LeCras at 355K... get on or am I better off grabbing Byrnes ?



and I have no idea how you have more boos than cheers Zippy    :P

[Colliwobblers]

Mark LeCras at 355K... get on or am I better off grabbing Byrnes ?



and I have no idea how you have more boos than cheers Zippy    :P

because he is a shower bloke and takes too long to answer my questions  ;D

[tbagrocks]

Mark LeCras at 355K... get on or am I better off grabbing Byrnes ?



and I have no idea how you have more boos than cheers Zippy    :P

I do ::)

[Ziplock]

OK Zip I always ask you 3 questions every preseason so here is question #1.

Jordan Russell - Pick 9 in the 04 draft, wasted at Carlton, why not they wasted Gibbs and the best list in the league for years so we expect waste from Carlton - don't expect it this season they will smash it !

but i digress...

Collingwood has Shaw off half back, that's all they have, clarke meh, key defenders maxwell ,, yeah so as i said they have Shaw.

They could really use this guy, but will they? at $ 270K ish I am tempted and I've been watching this bloke for years wondering what the?

2009 - 20 games averaged 74
2010 - 23 games averaged 80
2011 - 16 games averaged 71
2012 - 7 games averaged 57

i am seriously considering starting him if he plays nab cup looks good and is named for round 1.

But what do YOU think?

I don't know if you can justify a defender who's nearly 300k and has only scraped an 80 average once... I mean it's true that he'll probably get more opportunity at the pies, their half backs aren't the same quality as carlton. If he averages 80, he'll push himself up to like 400kish, be a last defence upgrade, and make a bit of cash.

I'm just looking up his stats now for this year, my concern is that he pulled out 2 scores in the 20s, fair enough one was green vested and he scored 27 points in a quarter, but the other was red and he only had 23 points in over 3/4. His decent scores against GWS and Freo were playing more loose off HB, which is encouraging, then he had a poor score tagging goddard, another playing on callinan and another playing loose.

Basically, I think you might be right. As you said, collingwood doesnt have any really notable HBs except for shaw, and I reckon playing in that role, he could very well pull a premium average of around 85... that being said, it's nearly as likely he'll come out with an average in the low  70s, in which case you've paid an extra 160k for maybe 10 points extra on someone like docherty.

Sorry I can't be more conclusive- I'm with you, really look at him in NAB, if he plays in the same side as Shaw and seems to slot at HB, jump on if named round 1. I'd be more sceptical if shaw doesnt play nab, and if he plays a lockdown role with shaw out of the team, stay away.