Swan dropping in cash..

[melon101]

Can anyone give me an idea (even if its personal thoughts) on swans possible rise or fall in price. Due to his already high price I was on board of dropping him for cotchin if he is expected to fall early.

[timmyparso]

if he plays like he finished last year he will hold or even go up in value. Word is he is the fittest he has ever been.

[Ricochet]

Only dropped 33k last year and from all reports is a lot fitter this preseason. Can't see him dropping much, but all it takes is one bad game.

[stew42]

There's a good comment about this by Griff on DT Talk:

For the past four years it’s been the same old story; Swan is too expensive and will dive in price, so let’s all pick him up when he is cheap and you’re laughing. Here’s the catch.

Firstly, Let’s say you pick Swan over Ablett. For Swan to drop to Gary Ablett’s price by round 7, he needs to average 124 or below. That’s a $46,000 drop, and is possible as this is what he has averaged in years past, but as you either start with Swan &/or with Ablett, Swan dropping to the same price of Ablett isn’t exactly a win, as it would be players below these uber-premiums who you pick instead.

A better example is picking Pendlebury over Swan. For him to drop the $125,000 to get to Pendlebury’s starting price by round seven, he would be looking at a drop around 22 points every week, or an average of 111 over the first seven rounds. This takes into account a reduction in the Magic Number, and sustained averages. This isn’t very likely, and it’s all for a gain of $125,000 in your starting squad (A rookie over Bock or Embley over Ball delivers similar results). It’s a big risk.

Secondly, to upgrade to Swan is a lot harder than upgrading to a normal priced Premium ($560,000 odd). To go from a starting rookie to Pendlebury, you need to find $450,000 odd in coin. To do the same thing to get to Swan, you need to find an extra $130,000, or $580,000 in total. So although you may have an extra $125,000 running around on the paddock to start with, you are upgrading slower, and scoring less points (unless you are quite lucky/astute with your initial pick). Meanwhile, Swan owners are using him as captain to make the gap even further; points wise.

And finally, as good as it is to have a plan and run against the pack, doing it with the best players in the competition because you think under-priced players will do better isn’t the brightest strategy with two trades every week. For example; If Bock comes in to the Suns in round 2 and smashes out 120 every week for the next four weeks, come round six he will be one of the most owned players in the compeition. People will downgrade/direct swap out of form premiums to ride the wave up, and then ditch him for a profit, or sit him on the bench as backup if he starts to spud it up. Whereas if Swan comes out and smashes 160 for the first four rounds, and you don’t own him, there is now way for you to possibly trade him in without sacrificing at least two players. Ditto with Ablett.

So as per every year, when Dream Team opens tomorrow, and you’re looking for extra cash, drop Swan and upgrade everywhere, it’ll feel good. But when the Pies open up their 2013 season against the Roos on March 31st in round one, make sure he is in your team. It he drops in value, so what, if he is out of form he will still average 111 every single week. Not bad for a KFC loving, heavy set, tattooed, Pie. Run Fat-boy Run!

[Capper]

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,70572.msg961361.html#msg961361

Name: Dane Swan


Age: 28

2013 DT Starting Price: $688,100

2012 DT Highest score/opponent: 187 v Essendon R23

2012 DT Lowest score/opponent: 95 v Geelong R8

2012 games played: 18

Number of Green/Red Vests:

2012 DT scoring summary



DT opponent history


DT venue history


2013 draw
Nth@ES, Carl@MCG, Haw@MCG, Rich@MCG, Ess@MCG, Stk@ES, Fre@PS, Gee@MCG, Syd@MCG, Bris@GABBA, Melb@MCG, WB@ES, BYE, Port@AS, Carl@MCG, Adel@MCG, GC@MS, GWS@MCG, Ess@MCG, Syd@ANZ, Haw@MCG, WC@MCG, Nth@MCG

Tabs says: Absolute gun, no need to trade him in and out of your team unless he misses due to an injury or off-field indecression. Start him Round 1 and then set and forget.

Here are the stats i posted about him a couple of weeks ago. I think the biggest worry for people regarding Swan are his off field antics. One big mistake and its all over.He might drop a little in price after the month but once he is in your team you set and forget, unless he is out with injury and then you use one of your 2 trades per week

[essendon2]

wow Griff is a fkn dead set legend.


I'm never trading swan, regardless of how high his BE is

[melon101]

Alright im sold and Swan stays

[SydneyRox]

Why would you not start with swan (and Ablett for that matter)

The chart on Swan from last year alone should convince you. Only 1 sub 100 game for the season (95) to go with 4 160+ games and a 133 avg??

[melon101]

Im going swan not sure about ablett

[Jukes]

Why would you not start with swan (and Ablett for that matter)

The chart on Swan from last year alone should convince you. Only 1 sub 100 game for the season (95) to go with 4 160+ games and a 133 avg??

>Why would you not start with Swan
He won't average 130, more like 126-128
Drug and other off-field controversy
Taking over of the guard by Pendles, Beams, Sidey, etc
Price
Will drop price early
PRICE

Cotchin is like 100k less but will only average about 10 points less.

[SydneyRox]

Pessimistic comments that come up every year about these elite players, and every year they keep pumping out the scores.

At your own risk.

[melon101]

If swan is only going to drop by 50k in the first 3-5 then may aswell have him from the begining so when he notches the 150+ scores hes in your side

[tbagrocks]

I didn't like how Buckhead used him forward in fourth quarters last year, such a strong midfield my fear is he may spend time forward in parts

[4820]

I'm with "melon101".
Not sure about starting with Ablett this year, tends to play fwd a little bit these days !
One minute he is in, next thing out ! ???

[Hagebear]

Still torn with wether to start with Swanny or not. Although could do some naughty things to North Melbourne in round 1.