WXV Prediction Thread

[CrowsFan]

A similar thread to that of the one in the Euro's board, but for the far superior competition :)

I was going to do an analysis of each time like Zip had done, but I wrote mine up and it took me far too long even though I knew all the players I had, their stats, potential etc, and decided it would take me too long to do everyone else  :-[

Anyway I'll post up the analysis I did of my team and you can rip me apart for being so bias. Along with that feel free to do your own write ups and predictions for your team, or other teams :)

[CrowsFan]

São Paulo Pumas

Predicted Best XV
Defense
Waters â€" 100
Hartlett â€" 95
Houli â€" 88
McMahon â€" 76
Midfield
Ablett (C) â€" 260
Sloane â€" 110
Zaharakis â€" 98
Wallis â€" 95
Ruck
Jacobs â€" 105
Forward
Roughead â€" 102
Wright â€" 93
Porplyzia â€" 83
Whitecross/Walker â€" 81
Utility
Minson â€" 98
Masten â€" 94

Total â€" 1,578

Analysis
Defense
Waters and Hartlett will be two of the higher scoring defenders this year, as long as they can both keep on the park, both having suffered from seasons of injury troubles. Waters managed to get through the season unscathed until the finals, and Hartlett put together 15 games, if he can get that closer to 20 he will be one the best defenders around. Houli had a down year from the previous, but is still a very solid defender and can probably push his average up closer to 2011’s. The fourth defense spot is where it gets a little weaker, McMahon is no premium, but scored above 90 six times from his 16 games so is still serviceable. 

The depth is not the best, however could be if a few of the youngsters stand up. Harwood showed he has some great scoring potential with a score of 148 in a game, then there are youngsters such as 1st round draft pick Buntine, Armstrong and Forster who are all capable of stepping up. Simon White has also been tearing up the track at Carlton so far and the coaches are quite excited about that.

Midfield
There is plenty of talent here, and apart from Ablett all very young. Nothing really needed to say about Ablett so will skip passed him. Sloane should see his average improve again this year, as will Zaha who averaged 99 before injury last season, Wallis another who should improve. Following that top 4 there is Masten coming off a breakout season and ripping it up in training, followed by Stephen Hill and Mitch Duncan who are both due breakout seasons.

After those seven star mids there is some great youth potential too. Top 10 draft picks Sheppard and Polec will be looking to make more of an impact this season than they have previously, whilst there is also Taylor Adams, Sumner and last years number 2 pick O’Rourke also available for selection.

Rucks
Very strong line here with two number one rucks at their clubs in Sam Jacobs and Will Minson. Not really much to say about either of them, as they both keep improving and should average over 200 points combined.

The depth consists of 21 year olds Luke Lowden and Majak Daw, neither of whom have played an AFL game yet, but could be top rucks in a couple of years. Lowden was unlucky not to play a game last season, but was close on a couple of occasions, whilst Daw has been promoted to the senior list for the upcoming season. Both will be looking to make their debut.

Forwards
There is some great firepower here, but perhaps missing just one more premium player to make it feel more comfortable. Roughead is a star and pinch hitting in the ruck gains him extra points, whilst the Crow duo of Wright and Porps is very solid, Wright more so as he should push the 90 average, but Porps also very handy but has the shoulder issues. Whitecross would be the fourth forward, however is still injured and I’m not sure of a return date, which means Walker should get some playing time. Take out his injured game and he averaged 85 last season, so the first choice four are all pretty solid.

There is some nice looking depth too, however probably not enough of it. Gunston has shown a lot of potential, as has Devon Smith. Following that it gets a little thin, but Kersten should get some games for the Cats this year after impressing in the VFL and O’Hanlon could sneak a game or two. Draft pick Mason Wood probably won’t make an impact this year.

Strengths
I would say the biggest strength of this team is the age. The average age of the entire squad is under 23 so plenty of growth can be expected from the player. Another strength would be the midfield as you would expect any that has Ablett in it to be. Although only two of the players (Ablett & Sloane) averaged over 100 last season it is quite plausible that 6 of the midfielders can push above the 100 mark this year.

Weaknesses
Not many to see in my opinion (although I am bias), but I would say the lack of a standout fourth defender and the lack of forward depth could be this teams downfall.

[Maca24]

Your obvious weakness is your 4th defender and forward.
I should have you covered in those areas ;)

[CrowsFan]

Your obvious weakness is your 4th defender and forward.
I should have you covered in those areas ;)

Yeah I know. It's a shame Whitecross got injured and Zaha lost his DPP, otherwise I would have been fine for the forward spot. In saying that Walker should average over 80 and Gunston can probably step up to around the 80 mark too so I have some options. Just have to hope for no other injuries up forward or I'm screwed.

So in saying that you should have me covered. What do you think about my predicted averages, about right or nowhere close? You'll notice I didn't actually just increase everyone's averages I did drop some like Ablett and Roughy.

Care to do a write up of your own team? :)

[Maca24]

Roughy and Zaha could be slightly higher. Wright and Masten should be lower.
Pretty accurate though! Yeah I could do one for mine, won't be as detailed or accurate though :)

[Maca24]

Predicted Best XV

Backs:
B.Goddard - 112 (Expecting some old form to come back, playing midfield in a new team)
S.Hurn - 91 (Averaged around here last year and no reason he won't again)
C.Enright - 90 (Getting older so a decrease is assumed)
J.Adcock - 89 (Averaged 91 last 2 years, should stay around the mark)
Mids:
S.Thompson - 110 (Averaged 110 last 2 years, I expect the same)
S.Sidebottom - 108 (Slight improvement expected)
B.Ebert - 103 (Should improve slightly coming into his prime)
L.Hodge - 97 (Could average more or less, all depends on fitness)
Ruck:
I.Maric - 227 (C) (No reason he can't maintain his average in an improving Richmond)
Forwards:
J.Bartel - 104 (Carried injury all 2012, expect an increase in average if fit)
J.Lewis - 95 (At 27yrs of age he should be around this mark)
N.Riewoldt - 92 (Saints may struggle to get it forward, plus Nicks getting older. Points decrease)
M.Lecras - 89 (Hard to say how he will return from an ACL, but he should get midfield time)
Bench:
A.Sandilands - 109 (Not sure how many games he'll play, but I'd guarantee an average of this)
A.Goodes - 87 (Getting older so I expect a decrease in average)

Total: 1,603.

Strengths:
Forwards and Rucks. We have two rucks who can average over 110 and are our top 2 captain candidates in Maric and Sandilands, with Currie likely to sneak some games for the Roos.
Our forwards average high and run deep with 8 players averaging over 80 in 2012 plus youngster Tim Membrey likely to play games. Those 8 are Bartel, Goodes, Lewis, Lecras, Merrett, Crameri, Riewoldt and Waite.
Another strength would be our players are proven scorers.

Weaknesses:
Our Midfield and it's depth, along with a lack of a permanent captain. Hodge is injury prone at the moment and when he is out it leaves Vince, Moloney, Horvat and Pfieffer in reserve. We do however have DPP players who can fill the void. (Goddard, Bartel, Lewis). Our players are old which means more injuries, a big weakness for us.

[meow meow]

Backs:
Heath Shaw (100)
Robert Murphy (90)
Dustin Fletcher (85)
Richard Tambling (3300)

Depth: Frawley (80), Hombsch (80), Clarke (75), Dixon (75), Hardingham, Colquhoun, Blake, Williams, May, Allen

Mids:
Shane Tuck (110)
Ryan Griffen (110)
Nathan Fyfe (110)
Callan Ward (110)
Adam Treloar (100)
Dom Tyson (80)

Depth: Paul Seedsman (75), Alex Sexton (70)

Ruck:
Nic Naitanui (110)

Depth: none

Forwards:
Dustin Martin (100)
Shaun Higgins (90)
Leigh Adams (90)
Angus Monfries (85)

Depth: Jack Darling (85), WHE (80), Michael Walters (80), Tyrone Vickery (75), Brad Dick, May, Williams

Total: 1560

Strength: Tambling, Higgins' durability
Weakness: shower coach

[ossie85]

These are great guys

[Ringo]

London Royals

Predicted Best 15

Backs:
Brent Reilly - 100
Andrew Mackie - 82
Joel McDonald - 80
Harry O'Brien - 75

Mids
Brent Stanton - 105
Daniel Hanneberry - 95
Matthew Broadbent - 95
David Mackay - 85

Rucks
Tom Bellchambers - 90

Forwards
Josh Hill - 80
Chris Mayne - 85
Johnathan Brown - 85
Quentin Lynch - 75

Utilities
Jarrad McVeigh - 95
Dannyle Pearce - 95

Total = 1322

Analysis

Defence:
Whilst team has an abundance of backs there is no outstanding premium back as shown up by the fact that Brent Reilly is best back following loss of his DPP position - Plenty of depth behind these 4.  Staker may force himself into team either as defence or forward if he can regain fitness and previous form. New middle aged recruit Dean Towers may put pressure on for place  with his run out of HB line. Matthew Warnock, Ben Reid, Tom Lonergan are capable back ups.

Mids
Lack of real prem is hurting here with Stanton best performing mid. Dan Hanneberry may break out this year, and looking for improved performances from Matthew Broadbent and David Mackay.  Jarrad Mcveigh and Dannyle Pearce will possibly fill utility positions. New Recruit Troy Menzell may get games this year.

Rucks
Bellchambers will be number 1 ruck but should Ben Hudson get regular games he may force way into team.  Will also be keeping an eye on developing ruckman Daniel Gorringe.

Forwards
Team has a core of forwards that will all score around the 75/80 but lacks the prem that will score 100+.  Sam Wright, Jason Winderlich and Ricky Pettard add to the depth.  We will be closely monitoring of another boom recruit in Joe Daniher,

Strengths:
Team has been strengthened with the recruitment of draft picks Troy Menzell, Joe Daniher and Dean Towers.  All may push for games this year putting pressure on the existing players, Team is also very young with an average age of 23.7 and will continue to improve each year. Depth in positions except mids and forwards.

Weaknesses
Obviously lack of high scoring premium on each line is an issue. Lack of Depth in Rucks and to a lesser extent mids is also concerning.

Overall this team, because of its current structure and playing staff will probably finish in the bottom half of the competition,

[Holz]

Dublin Destroyers

Predicted Best XV
Defense
Rance â€" 90
Atley â€" 70
Docherty - 70
Schoenemakers â€" 70
Midfield
Selwood(C) â€" 240
Mundy â€" 110
Redden â€" 110
Boak â€" 100
Ruck
Goldy â€" 105
Forward
Watts -90
M.Clark â€" 90
Gray â€" 85
Hurley â€" 80
Utility
Van Berlo â€" 85
Omeara â€" 75

Total â€" 1,470

Analysis
Defense

Rance should be free up abit with the addition of Chaplin to the team he has been hovering just below premo status for a few years now and I think next year he can jump up to the 90 range. Atley is being groomed for that rebounding half back role, i can see him being a 85 average player at some stage, is a great user of the ball so is build for SC just needs to work on getting it. Docherty i rate as the best fantasy defender of the last 2 years draft injuries have held him back but if he can crack into the team he will score. Schoenemakers is inconsistent but lake may help him get freed up abit more. Plowman and Bootsma are both high draft picks, if they can get games they can be more than handy back up. Jack Watts is sitting up front but he can swing down back if need be, long term he will be a back but he is likely going to play up front while my forwards are developing. Sam Forst is another who shows alot of potential. The defence is very young and shows alot of promise, probably is abit lacking in fire-power at this stage compared to the top teams but it will get there.




Midfield
Getitng Selwood was a huge coup for the destroyers he is a legit captain choice and could push to 120 and still hasnt hit his prime. Munsy was a big disapointment last year but we all know he is capable of doing much more shoudl be in for 110+ and could even push above 115 if he gets everything right. Is the oldest member of the squad but should be around for quite a few seasons. Redden is a great M2 M3 probably will always be just below the big guys so thats why selwood was brought in. Boak should improve to be a solid M4. NVB is just there to pump out a decent score quite abit of promise with the young guys Omeara is the star of the pack he could be something special in a few years, hunter,hill,anderson, boston are all waiting in the wings and in a few years i expect one of them to take over for mundy.



Rucks
I rate goldy as the best young ruck in the comp, he is the stand alone guy at north Now and if he can get close to his 2011 season he will be one of the most valuable players in the comp. There isnt much depth in this line and its something i will address, Clakre is a solid backup his JS is abit questionable at the moment so if goldy goes down I could have problems here but long term when sandi goes i see this being a very solid line.

Forwards

Watts will ikely be playing up front this year even though im predicting him to play back most of the year for the Dees should be froward premo but his lsos of DPP in 2014 could hurt if some of my young guys don't develop. Clark is my big smokie he was on fire last year averaging 100 over 6 weeks than went down injured, has the potential to be one of the best forwards in the comp he just needs his body to hold up. Gray is very similar to Clark but with even worse injury concerns, he might miss the first few rounds but when he plays he will kill it, how many he can play is the only concern. Hurley has the potential but is abit immature needs to grow up abit and get a role, there are concerns he could become a back only like watts at some stage it all depends on role here. Zach Clarke was robbed of DPP here he deserved it over alot of other players who got it, he was planned to be F4 and i expect him to get it going forward.

The bench has alot of avergae to good players. Harper if he can avoid the vests could be a bolter at some stage it might not be next year though. Alot of KPP guys here so they score quite poorly at the moment but in a few years if some of them live up to their potential they should help out the squad.


Strengths
Youth this team is very young with most players should lift their average this year. The starting 4 midfield is almost elite if they score what they are capable of. Goldy is capable of being a top 3 ruck this year. The forward and backline bench has alot of depth so there will be no OOP players this year, it might be more quantity than quality at this stage though.


Weaknesses
the utilities are lacking and so is a F4 and  B4 so thats 4 positions where they destroyers fall away massively from the contenders. It will be this that stop them beating the big teams.

Prediction

Destroyers will be the most improved team in the comp after taking out the spoon last year we expect Dublin to be fighting for that 8th spot with a few other teams. This team has the potential to be top 4 in a few years time though so the plans for this year is to hopefully make the finals and get some finals experience. into the boys.

[MajorLazer]

Don't think you finished your analysis, Holz. :P

[Holz]

Don't think you finished your analysis, Holz. :P

did it know, its alot of rambling but hopefully people can understand what im getting at.

[ossie85]

1470 would be a massive improvement Holz! But I can't fault your averages too much

[MajorLazer]

I thought I would chuck up an analysis of our team, but have decided to steer clear of actual scoring predictions until we see a bit of pre-season form.

2013 Predicted Best XV

Backs
Hanley
Stanley
J.Gibson
Malceski

Mids
Beams
Dal Santo
Grigg
Sewell

Ruck
Mumford

Forwards
Hale
Breust
Knights
Ballantyne

Utilities
Armitage
Douglas

Analysis

Hanley is going to be a great SC scorer if he can continue on with the scores that he has gotten over the past 2 years. He is only young and there is a good chance that either this year or next, he can push an average of 100. The only problem with Hanley atm is his inconsistency, but I feel that this is something he can address as he gets older. Stanley as a D2 is solid as I see him maintaining a 90+ average, which as a D2, is definitely a solid base. Gibson could be a bit of a surprise package this season. With Lake coming into thew Hawks backline, it helps free him up and be that third man to the contest that he is really good at. I think this role means that he could average anywhere between 80-90 in 2013. The last spot in the backline isn't set in stone at this point. There are 3 main players that are being considered for this spot, who are Malceski, Geary and Newman. All of these guys could average around 80, but all have their downsides as well. Malceski may not have a spot for him in the Swans best 22, Geary might not follow on from his 2012 scores and Newman is aging and could be past the stage where he is a viable scorer. Overall, this is a solid line for the Sands, not spectaculaar, but solid.

The midfield of the Sands has been drastically improved since the 2012 season. The inclusion of Beams means that the Sands now have an almost perma-captain that has the ability to average 120 in 2013. Dal Santo is not a bad M2, but he needs to be able to shake the tag more often in order to improve his average from a down 2012 by his lofty standards. Grigg is a player that could be a real mover in terms of scoring production. Averaging just under 100 in both DT and SC, if he can continue to improve in a rapidly improving Tigers team. Sewell is my favourite player in the league and I feel that he can hold onto to an average of around 100 if he can continue to get those contested possessions and tackles that are so coveted in SC. Armitage and Douglas are solid utilities that can probably improve their averages by about 5 ppg for the next couple of seasons. Douglas also might be gain MPP in the coming years. Rischitelli is also a player that can really improve from 2012 and can get back to his scoring ability of previous years. The midfield is the only line of the Sands where there is a real star, but I see it as another solid line.

The rucks of the Sands were something that was pegged as somewhat of a high priority to fix during the trade period and now we feel that there is a good depth to this line. Mumford can be one of the top 5 scoring ruckmen if he is able to stay healthy although the improvement of Mike Pyke might mean that his scoring may plateau in the meantime. Hale is a very handy player to have as he has MPP and although he will mainly be used as a forward, can be used to plug the hole if ever needed to. Stephenson might (big might) get games at the Tigers and was picked just in case. I see this as a good line and one of the better ruck lines in the comp.

The forward line is what I see as the weak point of the Sands. Breust is the guy I see to take over the role that Whitecross had to play as a half forward that gets more midfield time and that means that his average should improve and could reach as high as 90 this season. Hale should be able to maintain his average from 2012, but it is his MPP that was what made us at the Sands target him in the last trade period. Knights is somewhat of an unknown commodity, but we feel that he can average around 80 playing off the half forward line at the Tigers.The F4 spot is also open as Ballantyne and Lindsay Thomas could average the same in 2013. If Thomas can kick straighter he could average around 85 and if Ballantyne can get more of the ball he could do the same.

Strengths: The backline depth and I feel that the squad is solid all round.

Weaknesses: Forward line and lack of real star power.

Hmm. Didn't realise how much I had typed, but meh. :P

[My Chumps]

May aswell get involved in this analysis! Would love to see what people think about our premiership chances after the trade with Dublin...

Predicted XV:

Broughton - 95
Bock - 90
Chaplin - 80
Spurr - 75

Watson - 120
Cotchin - 125 (x2 250)
Kennedy - 120
O'Keefe - 100

Smith - 85

Thomas - 110
Hawkins - 100
Sylvia - 95
Bird - 80

Stef Martin - 80
Cooney - 90

Emergancies:
Jasper Pittard/Alex Johnson/Easton Wood/James Gwilt, Edward Curnow, Nathan Vardy, Jeff Garlett/Gary Rohan/Jeremey Cameron

Total - 1570
Average Age (of the XV) - 24

Strengths
Aside from our obviously amazing midfield (although weakened by the departure of Selwood), I think we have THE strongest forward line in the league. Hawkins, Thomas and Sylvia are all capable of average 100+, and one of Bird, Martin, Garlett, Rohan or Cameron should average 80+ for that fourth spot.
Our abundance of captaincy potentials are also a great strength, and I was quite suprised, and impressed, (maybe I stuffed up the math :P) by our average age of 24.
I also see our strength as a strength this season, with youth covering every area. Our ruck depth particuarly supreme, with Martin and promising youngsters Smith and Vardy there for support.

Weaknesses
There is none :P

Nah seriously, our backline is our worst line with a predicted average of 85 between the four, and that's with a hopeful average of 90 for Bock coming off a broken leg. I'm optimistic that one of Spurr, Pittard, Johnson, Wood or (with the help of a miracle) Gwilt can average 80+ and strengthen that fourth spot. Johnson showed some really good signs last year in the prelim and grand final and I hope to see more of that this season.
The other slightly weak line is the ruck department. Although I have great faith that Smith and Vardy will average 100+ within a few seasons, they're not quite at that level this year. Hopefully one, or maybe Stef Martin, can average 90 this season.