Magic Number

[maanco]

The magic number will start at approximately 5151 at the start of the season, it will then Change every round after rd 2.

Does anyone have an approximation of the value in change of the magic number?
What do you think the magic number will be by round 6?

[maanco]

So I'm guessing No one has any idea of the variation in the magic number over the season?

[Grazz]

Been looking for this for awhile for you, this is about all i can find mate so hope it helps a bit.

http://dreamteamtalk.com/2012/12/18/the-magic-number-revisited/

[Presto]

The magic number changes so as to keep the total value of all the players constant. At the start of 2013 this total value is $189M

In round 3 (and then each subsequent rounds) all players value will be recalculated according to this formula:
(75% x old price) + (25% x Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)
For example using Dangerfield and assuming that he scores in the first 3 rounds 100,125,102
(.75x525,000)+(.25*5151x(100+125+102)/3)=534115 rounded to 534100

So in this case Dangerfield value will change, and the same will happen to the rest of the players provided they played all 3 rounds), but the increases will not match the decreases, so that the new total players value will be a different value. If there has been an increase on this value, the Magic number is reduced to bring the total value back to 189M and viceversa.
By the nature of things, the first time (round 3) the value always goes up (partly because by the time a rookie has played 3 rounds his value will increase quite a lot - A rookie that score an average of 40 will increase his value by 25 to 30k) so almost certainly in round 3 the MN will be reduced.

Anyway, for those not interested in the maths here is what happened last year

Rnd1   MN4945
3   4565
4   4687
5   4587
6   4598
7   4547
8   4543
9   4485
10 4484
11 4484
12 4486
13 4442
14 4451
15 4425
16 4379
17 4472
18 4422
19 4509
20 4531
21 4555
22 4508
23 4479

As you can see there were a huge drop in value at round 3 (7.7%) and then a gradual reduction of a further 1.8% for the rest of the year.

[mezzoculo]

Nice one, Presto! With the reduced number of rookies this season then the first drop off will be much less noticeable

Back to the original question, its not possible to predict the MN for Rnd 6 as it fluctuates depending upon the scores of all players.

[maanco]

Thanks presto thats exactly what i was looking for!

[mezzoculo]

Thanks presto thats exactly what i was looking for!

Presto's great stats were from 2012. Just remember, the changes in 2013 will be different (e.g. less drop off after Rnd 3)!

[maanco]

yer i know mezzoculo, i wasnt really looking for exact numbers just some sought of relation. Thanks though.

[Grazz]

Nice work Presto.