Byrnes + Varcoe + Knights

Started by Football Factory, January 20, 2013, 01:52:19 AM

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Football Factory

Byrnes + Varcoe + Knights

Thinking about having all 3 in my forward line .. i think these guys could make 130-150k each ..

Byrnes: $229,300  When playing for geelong in full seasons he averaged between 80-85

Varcoe: $234,400  If he plays a half-back role he could average between 75-80 ?

Knights: $254,500  Has the ability to average atleast 80 ?

An average of 80 would be around 380k

Yes its a risk but the reward could be very good .. downgrade options to next best rook if one should fail ?

There's not going to be heaps of rooks to make money from during the year so i was thinking that the midpricers will help with overall money generation.

mezzoculo

Its a conundrum,FF!

I've been considering starting one / multiple of these guys all pre-season. Of the three, I think the case for Byrnes is the weakest but the other two... toss a coin. Personally, I always end up coming back to Varcoe as he has DPP and is $20k cheaper.

Football Factory

Quote from: mezzoculo on January 20, 2013, 02:09:27 AM
Its a conundrum,FF!

I've been considering starting one / multiple of these guys all pre-season. Of the three, I think the case for Byrnes is the weakest but the other two... toss a coin. Personally, I always end up coming back to Varcoe as he has DPP and is $20k cheaper.
I have Varcoe and Knights at the moment but im tempted to go all 3  :o  probably not likely but i think they can all make a decent amount of cash.

Mr.Craig

Maybe I'm simplifying things a little but last year I felt whoever you picked at D5, D6 and D7 went a long way to defining your season. I know I made a couple of critical mistakes in that area and it cost me dearly. This season it appears the battle ground is F4, F5 and F6. Get those initial choices right and you're well on the way to success.

owenbond007

Quote from: FOOTBALL FACTORY on January 20, 2013, 02:18:25 AM
Quote from: mezzoculo on January 20, 2013, 02:09:27 AM
Its a conundrum,FF!

I've been considering starting one / multiple of these guys all pre-season. Of the three, I think the case for Byrnes is the weakest but the other two... toss a coin. Personally, I always end up coming back to Varcoe as he has DPP and is $20k cheaper.
I have Varcoe and Knights at the moment but im tempted to go all 3  :o  probably not likely but i think they can all make a decent amount of cash.

I only really considered varcoe. His a good player and at his price you get a bit excited but his a lot of flair and after careful consideration doesnt really offer much more value than the best rookie. I think at most you only pick one or two midpricers no more.

tbagrocks

Well of course everything has changed with double the trades from 2011

I am thinking something like this is a definite stratagy worth considering

The trouble I see with round one spread two weeks, we won't know who is playing in week two so the rookie picks become very hard and basically a gamble. I blame the idiot Dumbitriou there is no need sor a split round

Anyway selecting your round one teams will be hard, need to look at the rooks and midpricers you want and see when their teams play and calculate the risk of not selecting that player named in week one

henry

I've got two at the moment of these (Knights and Byrnes) but am also looking at Varcoe. Main reason being I don't want to have to field unimpressive looking forward rooks.

Bones Bombers

I am now considering starting a few midpricers and if they don't look like they are going to work after seeing them play rd1 & 2, trade them back to a performing rookie and a premo.
It will mean I don't have to start a first year player in backs, rucks or forwards in rd1. Giving me the chance to see them in action.

Football Factory

#8
Quote from: tbagrocks on January 20, 2013, 11:08:58 AM
Well of course everything has changed with double the trades from 2011

I am thinking something like this is a definite stratagy worth considering

The trouble I see with round one spread two weeks, we won't know who is playing in week two so the rookie picks become very hard and basically a gamble. I blame the idiot Dumbitriou there is no need sor a split round

Anyway selecting your round one teams will be hard, need to look at the rooks and midpricers you want and see when their teams play and calculate the risk of not selecting that player named in week one

Im hoping there will be a rolling lockout for the split rounds ?  there was last year. I guess we wont know till feb 1st

Quote from: owenbond007 on January 20, 2013, 02:52:20 AM
Quote from: FOOTBALL FACTORY on January 20, 2013, 02:18:25 AM
Quote from: mezzoculo on January 20, 2013, 02:09:27 AM
Its a conundrum,FF!

I've been considering starting one / multiple of these guys all pre-season. Of the three, I think the case for Byrnes is the weakest but the other two... toss a coin. Personally, I always end up coming back to Varcoe as he has DPP and is $20k cheaper.
I have Varcoe and Knights at the moment but im tempted to go all 3  :o  probably not likely but i think they can all make a decent amount of cash.

I only really considered varcoe. His a good player and at his price you get a bit excited but his a lot of flair and after careful consideration doesnt really offer much more value than the best rookie. I think at most you only pick one or two midpricers no more.
Thats the idea behind having them Owen you get an extra money making player in your team .. plus the quality rooks you have to have.

Quote from: henry on January 20, 2013, 12:07:10 PM
I've got two at the moment of these (Knights and Byrnes) but am also looking at Varcoe. Main reason being I don't want to have to field unimpressive looking forward rooks.

This is my reasoning you end up with a forward line with potentially 6 players who will play week in week out and 3 of them will make you cash so its easier to upgrade.

Quote from: Bones Bombers on January 20, 2013, 12:16:22 PM
I am now considering starting a few midpricers and if they don't look like they are going to work after seeing them play rd1 & 2, trade them back to a performing rookie and a premo.
It will mean I don't have to start a first year player in backs, rucks or forwards in rd1. Giving me the chance to see them in action.
You can do this with the extra trades this year so its a little less riskier but im thinking if anything only one of them might fail you ?

Ricochet

What does the rest of your fwd line look like FF?

mpollock

Varcoe is 25 (Knights 27 and Bynes 29) ... so he is youngest and was on the verge of breaking out prior to getting injured.

Definately the pick of the three for me.  Probably won't start with any of them to be honest.

These guys are priced around 50ish so need to average 75 and play the first 6-7 games to be worth it ... i think i can get that out of a rookie.

Winderlich has the highest average in a single season out of the 4 of them ... but missing two full years and being 29 this season is a big turn off ...

NAB cup watch i suppose.

Windigo

#11
Looking over my rookies for the start of the year last year up fwd.

- 116, 69, 55, 50, 72, 72, 36, 26, 58, 87, 66 & 0.

Average of 58 all up in the first 3.

That was the popular rookie options Hall, Devon, Kennedy & Smedts.

Byrnes collective average in his career when he has played more than 10 games is 71 average.

Varcoe is 61.

Knights is 75.

So if they all get these type of scores the collective average from all 3 could be around 69 a game+JS+potential breakout and improvement.

Dunno if these numbers mean anything really. But you'd be confident on them getting around the 60-70 mark a game. Add in the factor that all can improve out of sight as well. Even if this theory fails, you'll still be getting a rookie priced score at the least and then you just trade down to best scoring rookie if there is one + money & then money after price increase.

Using this strategy I've managed to have only one young rookie on the field. The rest are 'mature rookies.' So all big bodies on field.  8) But that means nothing if they don't play round one.  ::)

Also when he was on the outer at Geelong, Shannon played in the VFL and averaged 21 touches & 6 tackles a game.

Football Factory

Quote from: Ricochet on January 21, 2013, 12:08:03 AM
What does the rest of your fwd line look like FF?

Brendon Goddard, Jack Grimes, Bryce Gibbs, Greg Broughton, Jasper Pittard, Brett Goodes
Sam Docherty, Dean Terlich

Dane Swan, Gary Ablett jnr, Scott Pendlebury, Jack Redden, Luke Ball, Andrew Embley, Oliver Wines, Jesse Lonergan
Jaeger O'Meara, Jack Viney

Todd Goldstein, Matthew Leuenberger
Daniel Currie, Liam McBean

Dean Cox, Tom Rockliff, Mitch Robinson, Chris Knights, Travis Varcoe, Shannon Byrnes
Brent Staker, Tom Lee

Football Factory

Quote from: mpollock on January 21, 2013, 03:01:48 AM
Varcoe is 25 (Knights 27 and Bynes 29) ... so he is youngest and was on the verge of breaking out prior to getting injured.

Definately the pick of the three for me.  Probably won't start with any of them to be honest.

These guys are priced around 50ish so need to average 75 and play the first 6-7 games to be worth it ... i think i can get that out of a rookie.

Winderlich has the highest average in a single season out of the 4 of them ... but missing two full years and being 29 this season is a big turn off ...

NAB cup watch i suppose.
Quote from: Windigo on January 21, 2013, 11:16:54 AM
Looking over my rookies for the start of the year last year up fwd.

- 116, 69, 55, 50, 72, 72, 36, 26, 58, 87, 66 & 0.

Average of 58 all up in the first 3.

That was the popular rookie options Hall, Devon, Kennedy & Smedts.

Byrnes collective average in his career when he has played more than 10 games is 71 average.

Varcoe is 61.

Knights is 75.

So if they all get these type of scores the collective average from all 3 could be around 69 a game+JS+potential breakout and improvement.

Dunno if these numbers mean anything really. But you'd be confident on them getting around the 60-70 mark a game. Add in the factor that all can improve out of sight as well. Even if this theory fails, you'll still be getting a rookie priced score at the least and then you just trade down to best scoring rookie if there is one + money & then money after price increase.

Using this strategy I've managed to have only one young rookie on the field. The rest are 'mature rookies.' So all big bodies on field.  8) But that means nothing if they don't play round one.  ::)

Also when he was on the outer at Geelong, Shannon played in the VFL and averaged 21 touches & 6 tackles a game.
When Byrnes played full seasons with Geelong he averaged 80-85 i can see him doing that at the Dees with a fresh start ... Varcoe has never played a dreamteam friendly game, according to reports he is going to play a half-back role this year which could easily get him a 75-80 average .. Knights is a gun who has had injuries disrupt his career, has a fresh start at the tigers and i could see him averaging 80 atleast .. Will be watching Nab before i lock them in but all three have the potential to make you cash and good scores boosting your overall total early. If one fails then just downgrade them we have 44 trades

tbagrocks

Won't make to much difference but Chris Knights is 26 not 27 ;) he won't even be 27 when the season finishes