Lance Franklin's tough start

[NoButYeah]

So i'm bored and I've read a bit that people are leaving out Buddy due to a tough start and plan on bringing him in as an upgrade target so I thought I'd put some research into it.

Hawks have Geelong, West Coast, Collingwood, Fremantle, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney in the first 7 rounds.

Starting from the 2012 Grand Final and working backwards, I've gone back to 2010 against each of these sides.

***Couldn't find a Supercoach score for him against Fremantle in the 2010 Elimination Final***

Geelong - 89, 93 (QF '11), 85, 95, 141, 83 - at an average of 97
West Coast - 112, 89, 146 - avg 115
Collingwood - 117 (QF '12), 142, 79 (PF '11), 66, 122 - avg 105
Fremantle - 99, 63, ? (EF '10), 129 - avg 97 *Only used the 3 scores for this average*
North Melbourne - 236, 96, 115 - avg 149
Adelaide - 128 (PF '12), 118, 72, 111 - avg 107
Sydney - 122 (GF '12), 77, 95 (SF '11), 146, 101, 81 - avg 103

Although he still has good average against each of these teams, I'm not sure he'll maintain his price in the early rounds and could be a better option as an upgrade target. I'm considering not starting with him after reading this.

What are everyone else's opinions?

[Presto]

He scored 55 in the 2010 EF.

I will have him.

I still think he is the best forward in the league and one of the few that keeps improving year after year.

[Nieso FC]

Wont be in the initial side but will grab him when its appropriate

[kilbluff1985]

don't think i will might go Cox instead

[Dazzalenko]

People said the same thing last year and Buddy scored 140 in the opening round against the Pies, he's a freak of nature, get on him!

[Big Dawg]

Like GAJ who also may drop in price a little, I'd rather start with the big guy than bust my balls trying to get him in later on..

[Windigo]

Just got him in, I just cannot bare to start without the big fella slaying out 140+.... :P

[shorty3264]

Champion players rise to the occaion. Having said that I wont be starting with him simply due to strategy and other Premiums, but it is a very tough start.

[Hawks_1976]

Easy to say I'm bias as I'm a Hawks supporter but let look at some numbers, based on the averages against these first 7 opponents that NoButYeah has researched.

If Buddy gets his average against these teams over the first 7 rounds, he would be averaging 109. I can live with that. Agreed that his average against NM is inflated by the 236 game but it would be no surprise to see Buddy pump out a 150 game in the first 7 rounds.

Using a magic number of 5100 and taking these averge scores ( MN 5350 but will decline throughout the year ), this is how Buddy's price would look at the end of the subsequent rounds
R3 : 598k
R4: 579k
R5: 579k
R6 : 580k
R7: 587k

He would head into the R8 game in Tassie vs GWS with a breakeven of 135.
And the draw from here is supposedly easier.

For a 30k saving, I think I'll start Bud in R1 instead.

[quinny88]

Probably going to leave him out to start with. Will have a stinker at some stage as all forwards do and drop in price

[Ricochet]

if Daisy doesn't play NAB then i think i'll have to find the extra cash fro Buddy

[nrich102]

Upgrade target

[SydneyRox]

I have gone heavy on the mids, and hope leaving Buddy as an upgrade target wont hurt me too much early.

[Ziplock]

I'm going to sideways trade to him after round 2 :P

[doogz]

After today, decided to start the big man.  I dont want to compete against a team with him in and praying he doesnt score 150-200.

Has anyone else changed their mind?