Season 2013 Ladder Predictor

[SydneyRox]

Ok, well all the season predictions we have been doing for each club, meant I needed to take an early season look into who I think will beat who and that left me with a predicted ladder.

What do you think?? Not much in the top 8 and you would think Freo, Richmond and Melb unlucky to make the finals.

[SydneyRox]

Here is a ladder predictor already built that you can use to have a crack. Post your results and lets see who gets the closest.

[nrich102]

Brisbane is far better than Melbourne.

[SydneyRox]

I like Melbournes chances. With Dawes and a fit Clark in the fwd line they should be able to kick more winning scores. If the younger brigade continue to develop, along with guys like Viney and Toumpas added to the list. I think they will surprise a few with how many they win.

I have them pegged for 12 wins. GWS (home), Bris (away), GC (home), Rich (away), Saints (away), Dogs (Home), Bris (Home), North (home), GWS (away), GC (away), Freo (home), Dogs (away),

They are playing what I would see as 3 of the bottom 4 teams (GWS, GC, Dogs) twice and should win them. The 'away' games vs Richmond and Saints are both at the MCG, so while they wont be gimmies, these are the ones they need to pick up. The big call would be Freo at the MCG. Freo had improved its travelling last year, but this would also be a winnable game.

[BB67th]

I think you rate Melbourne way too highly. There is no way they will finish with 12 wins. They will do good to finish ahead of Port, GWS and Gold Coast this year. No way they will beat Brisbane at the MCG and especially not at the Gabba. They will lose to Freo and the Saints and would be lucky to beat the Dogs.

[thollo]

I think that with all these ladder predictions people are just placing teams in order of best to worst. However, as showcased by Adelaide last year the draw has to be taken into account.

So in other words, I really like that you've gone to the effort of actually going through the draw SydneyRox

Here's my predictions using the excel doc.

Pretty easy to point out some flaws such as Hawthorn being so low and the Crows percentage being up that high. It was based on Geelong continuing their streak against the Hawks but if the Hawks win those they're back above the Weagles. North are very low too, can't see them going backwards from '12 but I only changed games I definitely thought would be wrong.

Sorry about not attaching the doc itself, closed it before saving  :-[  :'(

[SydneyRox]

Wow, a season where Sydney wins 21 games would be fantastic for me!!

Who did you have us losing to?

[valkorum]

I like Melbournes chances. With Dawes and a fit Clark in the fwd line they should be able to kick more winning scores. If the younger brigade continue to develop, along with guys like Viney and Toumpas added to the list. I think they will surprise a few with how many they win.

I have them pegged for 12 wins. GWS (home), Bris (away), GC (home), Rich (away), Saints (away), Dogs (Home), Bris (Home), North (home), GWS (away), GC (away), Freo (home), Dogs (away),

They are playing what I would see as 3 of the bottom 4 teams (GWS, GC, Dogs) twice and should win them. The 'away' games vs Richmond and Saints are both at the MCG, so while they wont be gimmies, these are the ones they need to pick up. The big call would be Freo at the MCG. Freo had improved its travelling last year, but this would also be a winnable game.

I have been staying away from this thread but I have to step in now..... SERIOUSLY, MELBOURNE WITH 12 WINS.

GWS (home) - Win
Bris (away) - Loss
GC (home) - Win
Rich (away) - Loss
Saints (away) - 50/50
Dogs (Home) - 50/50
Bris (Home) - 50/50
North (home) - Loss
GWS (away) - Win
GC (away) - 50/50
Freo (home) - Loss
Dogs (away) - 50/50

From the list of 12 wins I would only pencil them in for
3 x wins
4 x Losses
5 x 50/50 games

Even if they win all 5 of the 50/50 matches that still only leaves them with 8 wins.

[MTTY]

I like Melbournes chances. With Dawes and a fit Clark in the fwd line they should be able to kick more winning scores. If the younger brigade continue to develop, along with guys like Viney and Toumpas added to the list. I think they will surprise a few with how many they win.

I have them pegged for 12 wins. GWS (home), Bris (away), GC (home), Rich (away), Saints (away), Dogs (Home), Bris (Home), North (home), GWS (away), GC (away), Freo (home), Dogs (away),

They are playing what I would see as 3 of the bottom 4 teams (GWS, GC, Dogs) twice and should win them. The 'away' games vs Richmond and Saints are both at the MCG, so while they wont be gimmies, these are the ones they need to pick up. The big call would be Freo at the MCG. Freo had improved its travelling last year, but this would also be a winnable game.

I have been staying away from this thread but I have to step in now..... SERIOUSLY, MELBOURNE WITH 12 WINS.

GWS (home) - Win
Bris (away) - Loss
GC (home) - Win
Rich (away) - Loss
Saints (away) - 50/50
Dogs (Home) - 50/50
Bris (Home) - 50/50
North (home) - Loss
GWS (away) - Win
GC (away) - 50/50
Freo (home) - Loss
Dogs (away) - 50/50

From the list of 12 wins I would only pencil them in for
3 x wins
4 x Losses
5 x 50/50 games

Even if they win all 5 of the 50/50 matches that still only leaves them with 8 wins.

As a Dees fan, i agree with most of what Valk has said.

GWS (home) - Win
Bris (away) - Loss
GC (home) - Win
Rich (away) - Loss
Saints (away) - 50/50
Dogs (Home) - Win
Bris (Home) - 50/50
North (home) - 50/50
GWS (away) - Win
GC (away) - Win
Freo (home) - Loss
Dogs (away) - 50/50

Reckon we are still ahead of GWS and GC by quite a bit (shown by the way in which we have beaten both so far), Saints and Bulldogs i think we will overtake this season (more so the Bulldogs). While Brisbane, North and Richmond are still a few years ahead of us. Fremantle along way ahead.

Plus we can't forget about the game against Port (which i think we will win)

[valkorum]

I just used the ladder predictor and I came up with this

Hawthorn
Sydney
Collingwood
Adelaide
West Coast
Fremantle
Essendon
Carlton
Richmond
Geelong
North Melbourne
St Kilda
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
GWS

[SydneyRox]

Valk, I will happily take the flak if this goes the way you are thinking. You know I am not a Demons fan, so this is an unbiased view, I just see some big improvement in the Demons this year.
Round 5 will be the big one early, win away to the Lions and it will go a long way to shaping the year I have predicted.

[meow meow]

How will Melbourne go past the Dogs?

Demon gains: Toumpas, Viney, Dawes, Byrnes, Pedo, Rodan, Gillies
Loses: Moloney, Rivers, Martin
Improvement: Howe, McDonald, Nicholson, Blease, Watts, Trengove (maybe)
Could become elite: Sylvia
Players returning from injury: Clarke (will miss early rounds)

Dogs gains: Stringer, Macrae, Hrovat, Stevens, Lower
Loses: Hargrave, Gilbee (barely played in 2012 anyway)
Improvement: Wallis, Liberatore, Dahlhaus, Dickson, Cordy, Campbell, Smith, Roughead
Could become elite: Higgins
Players returning from injury: Morris, Williams, Cooney

The 1st year players cancel eachother out.
Dawes is a spud who cant hang onto a chest mark and only ever did okay because of the team he was in due to their sheer amount of inside 50's. Rodan sucks, Gillies is average at best, Byrnes is good but hasn't played for 2 years. Pedo is a VFL player and nothing more. Lower is a decent AFL player and Stevens has potential.
Moloney, Martin and Rivers are more of a loss than Hargrave.
Our youngsters are further ahead in their development and are simply better than Melbournes and as a whole they will add more improvement to the team than Melb's will.
We regain an all australian defender who is flying on the track, a rather average KPP but a KPP nonetheless and a guy who has found a way to manage his injury. Having only his 2nd full preseason. The last time he had a preseason he won the brownlow.
Melb have one decent mid in Jones, but he's barely better than Cross. Where is their equal of Boyd? Griffen?

Melbourne won't be going anywhere until they get a proper midfield and ruckman. Toumpas and Viney will be absolute stars but will make no difference in 2013.

[MTTY]

How will Melbourne go past the Dogs?

Demon gains: Toumpas, Viney, Dawes, Byrnes, Pedo, Rodan, Gillies
Loses: Moloney, Rivers, Martin
Improvement: Howe, McDonald, Nicholson, Blease, Watts, Trengove (maybe)
Could become elite: Sylvia
Players returning from injury: Clarke (will miss early rounds)

Dogs gains: Stringer, Macrae, Hrovat, Stevens, Lower
Loses: Hargrave, Gilbee (barely played in 2012 anyway)
Improvement: Wallis, Liberatore, Dahlhaus, Dickson, Cordy, Campbell, Smith, Roughead
Could become elite: Higgins
Players returning from injury: Morris, Williams, Cooney

The 1st year players cancel eachother out.
Dawes is a spud who cant hang onto a chest mark and only ever did okay because of the team he was in due to their sheer amount of inside 50's. Rodan sucks, Gillies is average at best, Byrnes is good but hasn't played for 2 years. Pedo is a VFL player and nothing more. Lower is a decent AFL player and Stevens has potential.
Moloney, Martin and Rivers are more of a loss than Hargrave.
Our youngsters are further ahead in their development and are simply better than Melbournes and as a whole they will add more improvement to the team than Melb's will.
We regain an all australian defender who is flying on the track, a rather average KPP but a KPP nonetheless and a guy who has found a way to manage his injury. Having only his 2nd full preseason. The last time he had a preseason he won the brownlow.
Melb have one decent mid in Jones, but he's barely better than Cross. Where is their equal of Boyd? Griffen?

Melbourne won't be going anywhere until they get a proper midfield and ruckman. Toumpas and Viney will be absolute stars but will make no difference in 2013.

Valid opinion meow meow. I just think Melbourne will go past the dogs this season (close but still just get ahead)

[valkorum]

@meow meow

I don't think Melbourne is a better team than the Bulldogs, its just that Melbourne has a better fixture than the Doggies.  In my ladder there is only 1 game seperating them on the ladder. 

Teams played twice

Melbourne
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane
Fremantle
Gold Coast
GWS

Western Bulldogs
Melbourne
Brisbane
West Coast
Adelaide
Richmond


I don't think the Doggies will beat West Coast or Adelaide and will split the chocolates with Richmond = 1 win
Melbourne won't beat Freo, will beat GWS twice and split the chocolates with Gold Coast.  = 3 wins

Thats an extra 2 wins just from the draw alone. 

Both teams play Brisbane which I think will end up 1-1 for both the Doggies and the Demons.  Then you play each other twice - I have that going 1-1 as well.  Even if it goes 2-0 in favour of the Doggies then that still leaves you 1 game behind Melbourne.

The draw makes such a big difference.

[meow meow]

Yeah I was talking more about people putting down 2 wins for Melbourne when they play the Bulldogs. I can't see why Melbourne would be expected to win those games.