Should we actually be starting the Great Bald Man?

[hawkers65]

I'm very reluctant in starting Gazza at the very high price of 740k. To maintain this price he would need to average around the 140 mark which is highly unlikely especially if you take a look at his past scores on his early opposition. I am contemplating starting ROK over Ablett and keeping the 185k it saves me till the end of Round 5. This is why i think i'll do it:

Ablett's scores against his first 5 opponents from 2012
Round 1: StK: 143 and 64
Round 2: Syd: 171
Round 3: Bris: 134 and 150
Round 4: Port: 111
Round 5: GWS: 125 and 126
That is a 8 game average of 124. By no means are these scores bad but if he was to average this exact number over the first 5 rounds he would see 3 fairly big price drops and would dip under the 700k mark.

O'Keefe was suffering from an injury all through the preseason which saw him have none what so ever and was forced to miss Round 1. He took a few weeks to get going as from Rounds 2-7 he only managed to top 20 disposals once (Which was only 21) and averaged only 73 during this period. If you take this patch out of his average he in fact averaged 119.6 for the year, which means he is 90k under priced. O'Keefe then went on to average a whopping 127 over his last 11 games with 5 of those being over 140 and only 2 under the 100 mark (96 and 67) O'Keefe also has a very handy start to 2013 playing GCS and GWS in the first 2 rounds which should get his confidence going for the up coming weeks. If he was to average these sorts of numbers for the first 5 weeks he should see 3 fairly big price rises and be valued at over 600k.

I know this is a bit hypothetical but if this was to happen the price gap between O'Keefe and Ablett will no longer be 185k, but instead under the 100k mark. So you could potentially be saving over 85k.

What are your thoughts on my strategy? 

[MC]

If you're going for league win only - why not have a crack?
If you're contemplating overall, then the points lost in the first 5 weeks by starting ROK over GAJ would put you out of the top 10k fairly quickly. ROK probably isn't the best example of a swap for GAJ - perhaps someone around the 600k mark like Priddis (or cheaper like Mundy) who will still be averaging 110-120 would be a better idea.

[tbagrocks]

Forget about who he scores on and look at his scores in the first few games every year! Last year was three straight 40+ possession games to start with

Saying that I doubt i'll pay that much either, actually looking to start both Fyfe and Mundy and trade one to Gaz,

[hawkers65]

Forget about who he scores on and look at his scores in the first few games every year! Last year was three straight 40+ possession games to start with

Saying that I doubt i'll pay that much either, actually looking to start both Fyfe and Mundy and trade one to Gaz,

I already have Mundy but Fyfe was another i was looking at doing this method with as he is very under priced (I just had O'Keefe's stats already) What round where you thinking of trading either Fyfe or Mundy to Ablett?

[hawkers65]

In the 6 years of Supercoach stats that are available on footywire, Ablett has averaged 134 in his Round 1, 2 and 3 games. So thats an average of 134 across 18 games!

[Adamant]

Don't overthink the little master, just lock him in.

[Presto]

Don't overthink the little master, just lock him in.

+1
And anyway he will not drop as far as hawkers65 think.

Let as assume that in the first 5 round he will score as hawker say and use the formula for price changes:
The Formula is: ((75% x old price) + (25% x Current Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)

Ablett first 5 round: 103,171,142,111,126

Round 3: (75% x $740,500) + (25% x 5350 x (103+171+142)/3)
= (75% x $740,500) + (25% x 5350 x 138.7)
=  (555375)+(185467) = 740,800

Round 4: (75% x $740,800) + (25% x 5350 x (171+142+111)/3)
(75% x $740,800) + (25% x 5350 x 141.3)
= (555600) + (188989) = 744,600

Round 5: (75% x $744,600) + (25% x 5350 x (142+111+126)/3)
= (75% x $744,600) + (25% x 5350 x 126.3)
= (558450) + (168926) = 727,400

So after rising slightly for two rounds he will settle on a value marginally inferior to the original one.

As I said on another post:With so many people doubting him  GAJ is my POD

[Vicious Sandwhich Attack]

Don't overthink the little master, just lock him in.

+1
And anyway he will not drop as far as hawkers65 think.

Let as assume that in the first 5 round he will score as hawker say and use the formula for price changes:
The Formula is: ((75% x old price) + (25% x Current Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)

Ablett first 5 round: 103,171,142,111,126

Round 3: (75% x $740,500) + (25% x 5350 x (103+171+142)/3)
= (75% x $740,500) + (25% x 5350 x 138.7)
=  (555375)+(185467) = 740,800

Round 4: (75% x $740,800) + (25% x 5350 x (171+142+111)/3)
(75% x $740,800) + (25% x 5350 x 141.3)
= (555600) + (188989) = 744,600

Round 5: (75% x $744,600) + (25% x 5350 x (142+111+126)/3)
= (75% x $744,600) + (25% x 5350 x 126.3)
= (558450) + (168926) = 727,400

So after rising slightly for two rounds he will settle on a value marginally inferior to the original one.

As I said on another post:With so many people doubting him  GAJ is my POD

Beautiful work there Presto!

Yeah Nah, I'll have GAJ thanks. Except for the 64 against St Kilda, it means you get a minimum of 220 as captain. The rest 250+

That 64 was also bookended with scores of 155 against the Pies, and 188 against the Roos.... still a 3 game average of 135.66 as captain that I would take any day, if for no other reason than not to have to think about captain.

4 of his first 8 games last year were above 143....

I am fairly certain the discussion is had every year about picking him up round 5-8 when his price has dropped, and it tends to be the same if not greater once we all get that far in.

Unless there was a serious dip in his form or output Supercoach wise, he will always be in my side, and always be captain. Last year I played with the captaincy only once and my lesson was duly learned as Carrazzo tagged Pendlebury into oblivion. that week Pendles got  62, while GAJ piled on 182!

[dunnie]

Just a small point but once the season starts the magic number changes from 5350 to 5000. That means a player will have to score higher than their 2012 average to hold their price. This changes the calcs. e.g. rd 5 price for Ablett in example above should be $700 242.
But just remember, in this hypothetical Ablett just got you 653 points at an 130 ave. Who else could do this? If someone else can pick them and Ablett.

[Vicious Sandwhich Attack]

Just a small point but once the season starts the magic number changes from 5350 to 5000. That means a player will have to score higher than their 2012 average to hold their price. This changes the calcs. e.g. rd 5 price for Ablett in example above should be $700 242.
But just remember, in this hypothetical Ablett just got you 653 points at an 130 ave. Who else could do this? If someone else can pick them and Ablett.

I didn't know this.... thanks for that!

[mpollock]

I guess if you do start without the bald man you would want to use the money wisely or you would just drop to far behind overall .... lock for me.

[SydneyRox]

Dont overthink it - Just lock him into your team.

[Sabretooth Tigers]

740k for Ablett, fit and in form, priceless.  He's the best around so why not just measure the others by his price. Cheers.

[ubeaut]

Dont overthink it - Just lock him into your team.

THIS

Anyone who doesn't have GAJ will want him ASAP. Just start with him he's the best player, simple. Who gives a rats if he doesn't "hold his price" the name of the game is to score points which is what he does. And he usually takes the guess/luck work out of picking a captain each round.

Sure price is important but not as important as scoring points.

I hope heaps of people think he's too expensive ;)

[freddo81]

Dont overthink it - Just lock him into your team.

THIS

Anyone who doesn't have GAJ will want him ASAP. Just start with him he's the best player, simple. Who gives a rats if he doesn't "hold his price" the name of the game is to score points which is what he does. And he usually takes the guess/luck work out of picking a captain each round.

Sure price is important but not as important as scoring points.

I hope heaps of people think he's too expensive ;)

+1