EXV predictions thread.

[Ziplock]

team: bashers
coach: sum n00bs
team lizt: hoo c@re5
analysis: yo suck n00bl0rd.


I'll do you guys when I get around to you :P

[elephants]

But... But your opinion means so much to our success this season!! :P

Nah, seriously though these are good reads :)

[Ziplock]

its late, but I'm a bit bored... so I'll do two write ups tonight from the remaining non-top 8 teams... it should be easy enough.

[Ziplock]

Team: Dutch Dinos
Coach: Hawka
Predicted Ranking and Average Score: 14th, 1190

Scoring Breakdown including captain bonus:
Back   Goodes   60
Back   M Johnson   75
Back   Firrito   60
Back   Gwilt   70
Mid   Palmer   180
Mid   Cassisi   75
Mid   Embley   90
Mid   I Smith   80
Ruck   Vardy   60
Fwd   Butcher   60
Fwd   Daniher   60
Fwd   Westhoff   70
Fwd   Winderlich   90
Util   Whitfield   80
Util   Viney   80

Analysis:
Firstly, I'm going to apologise now for any inaccuracy in the Dinos team list, or if I happen to name players on other teams list- from memory, their list was neither ordered positionally, nor up to date (still having leuenberger etc. on the team, despite him being traded). I've done it to the best of my ability though.

This team is definitely a eyebrow raiser. Hawka has been kind enough to post his trade history, so you can actually track the progress of this teams reformation. In my opinion, he did quite a good job... with the exception of two moves- Barlow for Nat 1 was a very unorthodox move- he'd dropped a 100+ player for an untried rookie, although, justifiable. The only true error Hawka made, in my opinion, was the severe undervaluing of rookie picks- for instance, trading the second rookie pick (golby, parker, jetta, any number of extremely talented young players) for national 9 + 38 (viney + murdoch) was a pretty poor calculation from my view- someone like parker has shown more potential than viney, but is substantially more developed as well.

You see this undervaluing again when Hawka trades rookie 27 + 44 (Bird, Elliot, Kennedy etc. and Milera, Stringer, Lucas, Green) for national 34 and 36, which ended up being currie + corr. A couple of seriously wasted opportunities there. Nonetheless, here's a break down of the current squad.

Back: I've been pretty kind to Goodes, assuming that he's reaching a 60 average. Lets face it- in that starting 4 there's neither good scorers, nor the potential for good scorers... gwilt at 70 is also being generous, johnson at 75 might be a little harsh, but he's 29 and has only averaged over 75 once. Firrito at 60 is about right. Those are all ollllld backs, and not good ones, even in their prime.

Unfortunately, the cover doesn't really help. The 3 of the young and talented players, plowman, smith, hombsch are KPB... as possible dreamteam options, there's only really buntine. Hooker and Dawson are both KPB as well, while Oshea, Markcovic and Buckley are nothing to write home about. Over all, with little future, and no immediate scoring ability, this would have to be the worst line in the league.
Mids:
Are a little bit better. I've been generous to palmer at a 90 average and embley at 95. Smith should be ok for a while, he's pretty young, and whitfield, viney, stringer, crouch will all be future guns- anderson could very well be up there too. It'd probably be the midfield with one of the biggest potentials. Atm though, they dont have even close to a 100+ player- it's definitely a project line.

Rucks:
Terrible. Vardy does not have good JS- competing with west for R2 at geelong, and with injury concerns, and Sellar/ Currie hardly inspire confidence.

Fwds:
The starting 4 are scraping the barrel- two young key forwards, one old key forward, and one old and injury prone forward/ mid. The bench isnt much better, there's only a handful of players with good JS (Garlett, Milne), and almost no potential youth (J Hill? Crozier?).

Strengths:
The midfield. Whitfield, Viney, Stringer, Crouch is amazing.
Weaknesses:
Every other line. The forwards and especially the backs are the immediate concerns though. These issues arent just addressable in one draft though, it's going to be a few years before the dinos are looking competitive at all.

How to win the flag:

It wont happen. Like, it's close to impossible. I'll seriously consider quitting fantasy football altogether if this team wins the premiership.

What would they  need though? All of their defenders to go 90+ (not happening, they're most KPB). Huge break outs from their midfielders, vardy to go at least 80+ and every forward to go 90-100.

seriously, I'd probably just give up on fantasy footy completely if that happened.

[Ziplock]

Team: Iceland Polar Bears
Coach: Hellopplz
Predicted Ranking and Average Score:
9th, 1406

Scoring Breakdown including captain bonus:
Best 15      
Back   Harbrow   80
   Mackie   80
   Dempsey   75
   Watts   90
Mid   S Selwood   200
   Mcveigh   91
   Judd   90
   Bennell   90
Ruck   Mumford   90
For   Lewis   90
   Gray   90
   Adams   85
   Mayne   85
Util   Griffin   80
   Wells   90

Analysis:
This is probably the best and most consistently rounded team in the competition. Unfortunately, that's come at a price- all the players are very solid, and I wouldn't be surprised to see iceland crack the 8... but they're lacking any superstars in any position.

Back:
Harbrown, Mackie are both getting on in years, but they should still put up 80+ scores this year. Dempsey I don't see exploding this year, but I suppose he could go to that 80 zone soon. Watts I'm predicting for a huge year, 90+ is completely viable.

Unfortunately, the cover isn't amazing, there doesn't really seem to be many young HBs there... most of HPs bench is taken up by  KPB like grundy, carlisle, rance, thompson, talia. Forster and osborne are both untried, and have dodgy, at best, job security.

Mids:
Once again, good, without being amazing. Selwood really came of age this year, and I'm expecting him to back it up with 100+. Mcveigh, Judd are reaching the end of their careers, and wells wouldn't be far behind, but they'll all be decent scorers for a few more years. Bennell is really solid, he'll be great in a couple of years.

the bench is nearly as impressive, absolutely littered with talent- duncan, tyson, wingard, polec, sumner. Then you have Ray, Hocking for JS, and barry as a more speculative pick. Really well structured- only really missing maybe one 110+ player.

Rucks:
Once again, impressive. Mumford for scoring, Griffin for immediate future, Warnock for JS and Gorringe for long term prospects. Good job HP.

Fwds:
Lewis, Adams are proven beasts. Gray should be able to scrape 90 fully fit, and Mayne I'm tipping to improve again.

Dawes I'm also tipping for an improvement- he could really surprise some people and become a genuine premium at melbourne.
Unfortunately, past stanley, it becomes a little thinner- jaksch and stewart are both long term prospects... and with patton/ cameron up front, if they fit at all, they'll be developed as key backs. The remaining players aren't exactly much to talk about either, all showing some signs of maybe being ok... but not really cracking into their respective sides regularly.

Strengths: I'm starting to sound like a broken record for this. The mids. Solid cover for the moment, a good 5 or so youngsters who'll be premium players eventually.. it's quite decent.

Weaknesses:
Once again- broken record. Defenders. I'm starting to feel like it's the make or break euro line. The starting line up is ok atm, but imo HP really needs to try and nail some talented youngsters as soon as possible- he just doesn't have the cover for harbrow/ mackies retirements currently.

How to win the flag:
It's plausible- more so for iceland than several teams above him. HP basically needs his older players to get back to their best, and for a couple of youngsters to really step up. A genuine captain option would put him in the running as well. It's not probable this year, but next year? definitely a name to remember.

[Ziplock]

that leaves just three teams left, the ones you've all been eager for, the biggest hitters in the league- the eagles, bashers (and valkyries :P )

[DazBurg]

nice write up in iceland zippy
yeah HP done a great job with the mids good for the future

[Holz]

11 quality reads but im really looking forward to the next 3. having a read of these discussions I worked out a few wekanesses in my team.

I had a look to see what my 2015 squad will look like assuming anyone over 30 is retired and I have done zero trades and got no draft picks (im likely getting late picks anyway). Guys in bold will be old and only inclusing guys  i rate.

should be a good way to work out my long term weaknesses.


Goddard, Shaw, Adcock, Gibbs  (Siposs, R,Lester, T.Clurey, C.Dixon, M.Weller)
S.Pendlebury, B.Deledio, M.Barlow, L.Athony (Nobody)
T.Goldstien (Z.Clarke)
M.Lecras, T.Cloke, J.Hogan, K.Harper (A.Walker, R.Tarrant)
D.Swallow, R.Douglas

What this tells me is i need to draft mids badly, quality will still be there but i need some young guys. Ruck line is set for a long long time. backs will still be good in 2015 but 3 of my starters will be old so I need the bench to step up, I have high hopes for siposs.

forwards I actually think are alright long term, I drafted hogan for this reason and harper is getting groomed for Boomers role.

[Scrads]

Just curious Zip, you rated my backline as my biggest weakness but after reviewing most if the other teams what do you think of my top 5 being Broughton, Hartlett, Pederson, Guerra, Howard now ? :)

[elephants]

Great reads there Zip. The reaction if the Dino's win would be hilarious ;D

Ummm just one thing. In the Iceland one you said HP needs some youth to cover the retirements of Mackie and Harbrow. You know Harbrow is just 24, right?

[Justin Bieber]

Harbrow to retire? Dafuq?

Maybe when you do your team with PearceHanley, he must only have 2 years left on him.

I would like say that Palmer will not average 90!! He's known as spud Palmer.

[Ziplock]

Harbrow to retire? Dafuq?

Maybe when you do your team with PearceHanley, he must only have 2 years left on him.

I would like say that Palmer will not average 90!! He's known as spud Palmer.

hahaha! yeah I failed really bad then. I hadn't slept yet, and it was like 7am... I think I was getting harbrow mixed up with campbell brown in my head.

and scrads- yeah, it isnt as bad as I initially said.

as for palmers.. I was feeling sorry for them... :P

[Ziplock]

bashers vs eagles coming up :P

[Ziplock]

Team: Belgium Bashers
Coach: Elephants
Predicted Ranking and Average Score: 3rd, 1530

Scoring Breakdown including captain bonus:
Back   Birchall   88
Back   Stanley   90
Back   Houli   80
Back   Reilly   75
Mid   Murphy   220
Mid   Selwood   107
Mid   Swallow   107
Mid   Fyfe   105
Ruck   Mcintosh   85
Fwd   Thomas   95
Fwd   Robinson   110
Fwd   Rioli   90
Fwd   Pavlich   90
Util   Priddis   95
Util   Carrazzo   93


Analysis:
The Bashers- the most frustrating team in the competition, three hyper-active coaches means a constant bombardment of various trade offers, and several trade rules favoured them very heavily this year. All those offers, combined with the fact that the bashers rarely traded unless the head coach, and assistants ric and FARK, were all in favour of the trade meant that Belgium on several occasions had trades in which, in my opinions, they won unfairly in... trades that would have been blocked if the rest of the competition wasn't so complacent, and, I suspect, if the Bashers weren't colluding with teams like Scotland.

with that out of the way, since it's all done and dusted, and the fyfe trade, dangerfield trade etc. can't be reversed, lets look into the squad they've managed to assemble

Back:
Easily the bashers weakest line, like many other teams. That being said, it's still quite strong. Stanley is a 90 average defender, personally I was surprised to see him improve his average off 2011, but I'd be quite shocked if he managed to increase once again- I think 90 is about his area, especially since he'll be vying for various positions with new players such as broughton, probably rotating through hb and a lockdown role.... that being said, it's definitely a worthwhile score. Unfortunately, I can't see Birchall increasing much on his score either- natural progression at his age should see a slight improvement, but I think lake is going to receiving the ball occasionally in his place, which'll keep him down to where he is at the moment. Reilly is old and average at best. The Bashers rate houli, but really he's a bit average as a scorer- I think the beard weighs him down, 80 is around his mark.

The cover doesn't really do the starting defenders justice. Nicholson is solid and shows some potential, and having both him and Terlich is definitely a good pair- one of them will probably always be playing. Terlich however is untried, and his potential a bit hard to guage, while Nicholson without a cemented spot could become everything- an 80 average back would be great, but if he moves into the mids, he loses all his value in subsequent seasons. The rest of the cover isn't much to talk about- Shaw is reaching the end of his career. Guthrie, Jonas are average scorers, Prudden is untried, and a little light weight atm. Bews has average job security, and is a poor DTer in VFL anyway, while allens JS is pretty poor.

Overall, luckily the starting three for the bashers are all reasonable aged and decent scorers, however they have almost no cover to really step up and support them as another premium... all hopes would be banked on nicholson at this stage.
Mids:
The Bashers midfield is really quite impressive. Murphy, Selwood, Swallow, Fyfe are some of the best youngsters going around- although there are concerns on all of them... Fyfe with injuries, Selwood with concussions and difficulties being the number 1 tag, Swallows low possession count, relying on tackles to really boost his scoring, and murphys inability to handle a tag. (For the record, I'll give the bashers a piece of free advice here- when carlton play the saints, not only don't captain murphy, don't even field him. He's a lead weight.). Older and more average players in Carrazzo, Priddis fill the utility line, but are more than serviceable.

On the bench, Gibson looks like a solid scorer, as is Rosa. Horsley could be decent, but he's a bit average atm... good cover though. Stark is tiny, and I doubt he can crack the Dees line up, Jones and Llyod are clearly mature aged punts, attempting to score another gibson/ horsely... I have my doubts about both though.
Rucks:
Not the best of rucklines. Hmac is a solid scorer when fit. Which isn't often. He's 29 next year and has scraped a 90 average twice. His average last year was greatly boosted by 2/3 of his tons coming from gws/ gold coast. He only averaged 80 without those two games. Naturally geelong plays both teams this year, but assuming he plays a full season (not guaranteed), with a larger pool size of sample scores, his average wont be as distorted as it was last year, having only played 7 games.

Lobbe and Renouf are a reasonable combination- I mean, both suck as players, but ports dodgy ruck stocks mean that one of them should play every game... so when hmac goes down, at least a ruck can take the field. Hannath is a long term prospect... that being said, atm as a ruck he's far down the pecking order, I mean, sandilands, griffin, Clarke, Bradley, Moller all in front of him for a rucking spot.

Fwds:
Belgium excel here. Thomas might be a bit underrated, although I've taken into account the fact he's had almost no pre-season. At the same time, I'm surprised I've rated robinson so highly... actually, really surprised. Anyway, I can see him breaking 100 this year. Rioli is injury prone, and he never plays extended midfield time, since his hammies just snap instantly- 90 is about right. Personally in pavlich's case, I'm seeing a slight drop off this year, since he's had surgery in 3 places, I see him starting a bit slowly, and probably being rested against weaker teams to conserve him a bit.

The cover's alright, without being fantastic. Jpod will probably retire at the end of this year, Bird could one day be a reasonable scorer, he's probably a major part of the forward future, providing he retains eligibility- which isn't guarenteed for him, robinson or thomas. Knights is pretty average, lynch even more so. Crisp is young enough that I'll withhold judgement, he hardly looks like a superstar atm though. Sinclair is in the some boat, as is Horlin-Smith and Cripps. Basically, I would expect only one premium at maxium, from that talent pool.

Strengths: The midfield and forward line are pretty full of heavy hitters, especially impressive given the youth of the midfield, if it comes together it could be quite scary for quite some time.

Weaknesses:
Basically, cover. Immediate cover is alright, JS for several players in each line will be enough to field a full team each week, but the scoring potential is a bit thin for every line. On top of that (thankfully, considering the bashers aren't exactly an old team), there's not a lot of quality youth... with the exception of nicholson, there's probably nobody on the bench that has the potential to become a premium at this stage. The ruckline is probably the most immediate concern, followed by the defence.
How to win the flag:
Completely plausible, although the bashers will need some luck. They don't have the depth of teams like russia, or the scoring potential of serbia. Basically, they need an injury free season, and/or nicholson to go 85+ and one of swallow/ fyfe/selwood to go 115+. All of that's viable, but as I said... luck is definitely a major component.

[Ricochet]

Lol pretty much what I expected ::)
Get over the trades mate. They were passed when they went to vote which means others thought they weren't that bad

On the predictions, they're pretty fair. Obviously we rate some guys a little higher but yours are reasonable