EXV predictions thread.

[Justin Bieber]

I don't lie the unsubbed thing though. Cause there's a good chance they are subs etc.

[JBs-Hawks]

I don't lie the unsubbed thing though. Cause there's a good chance they are subs etc.

Well instead of criticizing everyone else predictions, make your own ;)

[Ricochet]

I don't lie the unsubbed thing though. Cause there's a good chance they are subs etc.

It's more for guys that get injured and subbed off at like quarter time. It's more accurate  to exclude that score in their average

[Ziplock]

How about a system based on last years averages (unsubbed) but the following:

Must have played 10+ games in 2012.
- Players who are going into their second year will keep that same average
- Players who are 20-21-22-23 who havent broken out yet, receive a 20 point increase on average
- Players who are 20-21-22-23-24-25-26 who have broken out receive a 5% increase
- Players who are 26-27-28-29 who haven't broken out for the 2nd time, receive a 10 point increase
- Players who are 26-27-28-29 who have broken out for the 2nd time, receive a 5% point increase
- Players who are 30 years old and above receive a 5% deduction from last years average
- Players that are over 21 and move clubs get their highest career average for a season.
- Players that are under 21 and move clubs get a 20 point increase on last years average.


Obviously there are always exceptions and players that don't follow the trend, butwhat do you think of that system?
and what do you think about criteria?

Going to try it on our squad. Obviously some are a bit out but majority look about right.

Unsubbed 2012 Scores    /    2013 predicted averages
Birchall 89.0 + 5% (No.3) = 93.5
Houli 78.9 + 5% (No.3) = 82.8
Stanley 92.4 + 5% (No.3) = 97.0
Reilly 79.1 - 5% (No.6) = 75.1
Murphy 105.7 + 5% (No.3) = 110.9
Fyfe 97.3 + 5% (No.3) = 102.1
A.Swallow 102.6 + 5% (No.3) = 107.7
Carrazzo 101.4 - 5% (No.6) = 96.3
J.Selwood 103.1 + 5% (No.3) = 108.2
Priddis 97.4 + 5% (No.5) = 102.2
McIntosh 90.8 + (No.7) = 90.8
D.Thomas 96.9 + 5% (No.3) = 101.7
Robinson 92.8 + 5% (No.3) = 97.4
Pavlich 94.9 - 5% (No.6) = 90.1
Cyril 89.41 + 5% (No.3) = 93.8

stanleys 5th year mate.

[Ricochet]

How about a system based on last years averages (unsubbed) but the following:

Must have played 10+ games in 2012.
- Players who are going into their second year will keep that same average
- Players who are 20-21-22-23 who havent broken out yet, receive a 20 point increase on average
- Players who are 20-21-22-23-24-25-26 who have broken out receive a 5% increase
- Players who are 26-27-28-29 who haven't broken out for the 2nd time, receive a 10 point increase
- Players who are 26-27-28-29 who have broken out for the 2nd time, receive a 5% point increase
- Players who are 30 years old and above receive a 5% deduction from last years average
- Players that are over 21 and move clubs get their highest career average for a season.
- Players that are under 21 and move clubs get a 20 point increase on last years average.


Obviously there are always exceptions and players that don't follow the trend, butwhat do you think of that system?
and what do you think about criteria?

Going to try it on our squad. Obviously some are a bit out but majority look about right.

Unsubbed 2012 Scores    /    2013 predicted averages
Birchall 89.0 + 5% (No.3) = 93.5
Houli 78.9 + 5% (No.3) = 82.8
Stanley 92.4 + 5% (No.3) = 97.0
Reilly 79.1 - 5% (No.6) = 75.1
Murphy 105.7 + 5% (No.3) = 110.9
Fyfe 97.3 + 5% (No.3) = 102.1
A.Swallow 102.6 + 5% (No.3) = 107.7
Carrazzo 101.4 - 5% (No.6) = 96.3
J.Selwood 103.1 + 5% (No.3) = 108.2
Priddis 97.4 + 5% (No.5) = 102.2
McIntosh 90.8 + (No.7) = 90.8
D.Thomas 96.9 + 5% (No.3) = 101.7
Robinson 92.8 + 5% (No.3) = 97.4
Pavlich 94.9 - 5% (No.6) = 90.1
Cyril 89.41 + 5% (No.3) = 93.8

stanleys 5th year mate.

are you referring to the "No.3" ?

[Ziplock]

ahhh, you're referring to the third dot point?

[Ziplock]

now that the 3rd period is over, and I'm back from holidays, I'm now going to review every team :P

[Ziplock]

FTR, I *think* I've sorted out the dinos team, for analysis... I could be wrong though, I didnt look into depth for it

B: Goodes, Johnson, Firrito, Gwilt
M: Palmer, Cassisi, Embley, I Smith
R: Vardy
F: Butcher, Daniher, Westhoff, Winderlich
U: Whitfield, Viney


with a bench of

B: Markcovic      Oshea   Dawson      Hooker   Buckley   Buntine   Plowman   Tanner Smith Hombsch
M: Taggert   M Newman   Ellard            Crouch   B Hill   Ed Curnow   Stringer
R: Sellar   Currie
F Redpath      J Hill   Banfield   Milne   Crozier   J Garlett   Garner   T Obrien   Murdoch


honestly though... I dont even...

*note* had to make an edit since the squads arent updated, there may be a couple of extra benchies in there

[Ziplock]

ok, so I haven't gotten around to a review yet, but I've compiled every teams full squad (which wasn't easy in some cases... seriously, update your lists people), and I've done a score estimate for each teams best 15... I found the results I bit surprising- Serbia are pumping wayyy harder than I predicted, while the bashers, despite their constant trade, ummm 'domination', aren't as high as I thought they would be.

Bison are, as people have said, underated. Atm though, without looking at depth, its looking to me like a 4 horse race, with sweden as a smokie

Rank   Name    Predicted Average
1   Serbia   1598
2   Russia   1554
3   Bashers   1530
4   Bison           1527
5   Sweden   1523
6   Valkyries   1486
7   Macedonia   1440
8   Trolls           1412
9   Iceland   1406
10   Scotland   1363
11   Spain           1351
12   England   1347
13   Greece   1255
14   Dinos           1195


I know FARK is going to dog until our eyes bleed as his penis slowly shrivels up in fear to resembled a small withered pea, but, with the exception of my team possibly being biased (entirely plausible), or, a possible transcription error, that's how I see the best 15 panning out atm... how it actually goes will depend on injuries, suspension, cover etc.  I'll deal with all that tomoz though :P

[Ricochet]

ahhh, you're referring to the third dot point?

yep thats it

Gonna look at Russia now
Unsubbed 2012 Scores    /    2013 predicted averages
Waters, 91.6 + 5% (No.5) = 96.1
Hurn, 76 + 5% (No.3) = 79.8
Yarran, 68.6 + 5% (No.3) = 72
Burguoyne 72 - 5% (No.6) = 68.4
Swan, 133.5 + 5% (No.5) = 140.1
Ablett, 124.8 + 5% (No.5) = 131
Griffen, 27.1 + 5% (No.5) = 101.9
ROK 96.7 - 5% (No.6) = 91.8
Moloney, 59.6 (No.7) = 88.4
Greene 96.2 + (No.1) = 96.2
Bellchambers 83.3 + 5% (No.3) = 87.4
Tippett 72.3 + (No.7) = 72.6
Chappy, 97.4 - 5% (No.6) = 92.5
J.Riewoldt, 90.1 + 5% (No.3) = 94.6
Varcoe   (No.9) = 75.1

TOTAL= 1387.9 + 140.1 (C) = 1528

[Holz]

How i wish your predictions are correct ric.

Swanny 140 would be nice.

[Ricochet]

How i wish your predictions are correct ric.

Swanny 140 would be nice.

yeh i know some are a bit questionable  :-\

[Ricochet]

Ok Holz's team, a few that could go either way in this one with Gibbs, Cloke and Goldy

Unsubbed 2012 Scores    /    2013 predicted averages
B.Gibbs, 91.5 + 5% (No.3) = 96
B.Goddard, 97.5 (No.7) = 113.4
H.Shaw, 82 + 5% (No.5) = 86.1
J.Adcock 81 + 5% (No.5) = 85
S.Pendlebury, 113.4 + 5% (No.5) = 119
M.Boyd,  115.2 (No.6) = 109.4
B.Deledio, 110.3 + 5% (No.3) = 115.8
M.Barlow 99.7 + 5% (No.3) = 104.6
T.Goldstein 81.5 + 5% (No.3) = 85.5 ** probably deserves to be higher with HMac gone.
T.Cloke, 76 + 5% (No.3) = 79.8
M.Lecras, Nil (No.9) = 86.2
B.Harvey, 87.7 - 5% (No.6) = 83.3
D.Petrie 81.4 - 5% (No.6) = 77.3
L.Athony 96.8 + 5% (No.3) = 101.6
A.Sandilands100.2 - 5% (No.6) = 95.1

TOTAL= 1438.1 + 119 (C) = 1557.1

[Justin Bieber]

Problem with your prediction Ric is that not all players are going to avoid the vest from time to time!! Haha. It is like guaranteed that Cyril get it at least once.

[Justin Bieber]

Liam Anthony 101... Hmmmm. If that's true then Torp would be spewing lol