EXV predictions thread.

[JBs-Hawks]

Doing my predictions by giving each player a predicted average.

Serbia: 1550
Belgium: 1535
Sweden: 1535
Russia: 1514
Belarus 1495
Iceland:1440
England:1435
Norway: 1435
Vatican: 1420
Macedonia: 1415
Scotland: 1400
Spain: 1360
Greece: 1250
Dutch (No obvious starting 15 but we know where there finishing.)


These are done by very rough predictions and no research haha but lets see how it compares at the end of the year, it will be interesting

[Ricochet]

Let me know your thoughts guys :) Any advice on the scoring system would be muchly appreciated.

The only fail i see in the ranking system is the value of each point...
Say Zip has the best backline so he gets 14 points, but its the best backline by a country mile
We have the next best backline so we get 13 points
You have the next best backline but very close to ours, you get 12 points

ideally it should have been something like
Zip 15
Us 13
You 12.5

Not sure how you can do that though

[Holz]

I'm liking these predictions. If only I went after Albett.

[JBs-Hawks]

The only problem with your team Holz is your forwards are definately going to cost you games, you just need to hope that they dont cost you a final.

[Ziplock]

Let me know your thoughts guys :) Any advice on the scoring system would be muchly appreciated.

The only fail i see in the ranking system is the value of each point...
Say Zip has the best backline so he gets 14 points, but its the best backline by a country mile
We have the next best backline so we get 13 points
You have the next best backline but very close to ours, you get 12 points

ideally it should have been something like
Zip 15
Us 13
You 12.5

Not sure how you can do that though

fixed.

[Ricochet]

Let me know your thoughts guys :) Any advice on the scoring system would be muchly appreciated.

The only fail i see in the ranking system is the value of each point...
Say Zip has the best backline so he gets 14 points, but its the best backline by a country mile
We have the next best backline so we get 13 points
You have the next best backline but very close to ours, you get 12 points

ideally it should have been something like
Zip 15
Us 13
You 12.5

Not sure how you can do that though

fixed.

maybe in a few years

[Justin Bieber]

Doing my predictions by giving each player a predicted average.

Serbia: 1550
Belgium: 1535
Sweden: 1535
Russia: 1514
Belarus 1495
Iceland:1440
England:1435
Norway: 1435
Vatican: 1420
Macedonia: 1415
Scotland: 1400
Spain: 1360
Greece: 1250
Dutch (No obvious starting 15 but we know where there finishing.)


These are done by very rough predictions and no research haha but lets see how it compares at the end of the year, it will be interesting

Scrads has moved down on your predictions :o and you overrated your team heaps lol.

[Scrads]

Let me know your thoughts guys :) Any advice on the scoring system would be muchly appreciated.

The only fail i see in the ranking system is the value of each point...
Say Zip has the best backline so he gets 14 points, but its the best backline by a country mile
We have the next best backline so we get 13 points
You have the next best backline but very close to ours, you get 12 points

ideally it should have been something like
Zip 15
Us 13
You 12.5

Not sure how you can do that though

Completely understand but as you said, hard to work a system like that without simply giving each player an estimated average and tallying that up.

JB you were harsh on the Wolves I hope we don't finish that low I thought my team was stronger than that :(

[JBs-Hawks]

Let me know your thoughts guys :) Any advice on the scoring system would be muchly appreciated.

The only fail i see in the ranking system is the value of each point...
Say Zip has the best backline so he gets 14 points, but its the best backline by a country mile
We have the next best backline so we get 13 points
You have the next best backline but very close to ours, you get 12 points

ideally it should have been something like
Zip 15
Us 13
You 12.5

Not sure how you can do that though

Completely understand but as you said, hard to work a system like that without simply giving each player an estimated average and tallying that up.

JB you were harsh on the Wolves I hope we don't finish that low I thought my team was stronger than that :(

Dont really rate your mids that's your problem, and whitey injured.  But your mids could prove me wrong.

[Adamant]

Stants, Ebert, Shiels and Masten are very solid.

Stanton is inconsistent, but has a massive ceiling and will go 105-110.

Ebert will go 100+.

If Shiels is let loose, he will average 95+, if he's still tagging, then 70-85.

Masten will keep improving and will be around the 85-90 mark. Not bad.

[PowerBug]

I'll happily take 3 wins for the 2013 season, as long as i get to pick who we beat. :P

[Ricochet]

How about a system based on last years averages (unsubbed) but the following:

Must have played 10+ games in 2012.
1.- Players who are going into their second year will keep that same average
2.- Players who are 20-21-22-23 who havent broken out yet, receive a 10 point increase on average
3.- Players who are 20-21-22-23-24-25-26 who have broken out receive a 5% increase
4.- Players who are 27-28-29 who haven't broken out for the 2nd time, receive a 10 point increase
5.- Players who are 27-28-29 who have broken out for the 2nd time, receive a 5% point increase
6.- Players who are 30 years old and above receive a 5% deduction from last years average
7.- Players that are over 21 and move clubs get their highest career average for a season.
8.- Players that are under 21 and move clubs get a 20 point increase on last years average.
9.- Players who have played less than 5 games due to injury get their 2011 average

Obviously there are always exceptions and players that don't follow the trend, butwhat do you think of that system?
and what do you think about criteria?

[Ziplock]

I think everyone who should run their own evaluation system, then we should average them out and compare them  all :P

[Ricochet]

How about a system based on last years averages (unsubbed) but the following:

Must have played 10+ games in 2012.
No.1- Players who are going into their second year will keep that same average
No.2- Players who are 20-21-22-23 who havent broken out yet, receive a 20 point increase on average
No.3- Players who are 20-21-22-23-24-25-26 who have broken out receive a 5% increase
No.4- Players who are 26-27-28-29 who haven't broken out for the 2nd time, receive a 10 point increase
No.5- Players who are 26-27-28-29 who have broken out for the 2nd time, receive a 5% point increase
No.6- Players who are 30 years old and above receive a 5% deduction from last years average
No.7- Players that are over 21 and move clubs get their highest career average for a season.
No.8- Players that are under 21 and move clubs get a 20 point increase on last years average.
No.9- Players who have played less than 5 games due to injury get their 2011 average

Obviously there are always exceptions and players that don't follow the trend, butwhat do you think of that system?
and what do you think about criteria?

Going to try it on our squad. Obviously some are a bit out but majority look about right.

Unsubbed 2012 Scores    /    2013 predicted averages
Birchall 89.0 + 5% (No.3) = 93.5
Houli 78.9 + 5% (No.3) = 82.8
Stanley 92.4 + 5% (No.3) = 97.0
Reilly 79.1 - 5% (No.6) = 75.1
Murphy 105.7 + 5% (No.3) = 110.9
Fyfe 97.3 + 5% (No.3) = 102.1
A.Swallow 102.6 + 5% (No.3) = 107.7
Carrazzo 101.4 - 5% (No.6) = 96.3
J.Selwood 103.1 + 5% (No.3) = 108.2
Priddis 97.4 + 5% (No.5) = 102.2
McIntosh 90.8 + (No.7) = 90.8
D.Thomas 96.9 + 5% (No.3) = 101.7
Robinson 92.8 + 5% (No.3) = 97.4
Pavlich 94.9 - 5% (No.6) = 90.1
Cyril 89.41 + 5% (No.3) = 93.8

TOTAL= 1449.6 + 110.9 (C) = 1560.5

[Ricochet]

Gonna have a crack at Scrads team  :)

Unsubbed 2012 Scores    /    2013 predicted averages
G.Broughton 78.9 + (No.7) = 89.3
H.Hartlett 80.5 + 5% (No.3) = 84.5
B.Guerra  79.4 - 5% (No.6) = 75.4
C.Pederson 57.5 (No.7) = 71.3
B.Stanton 106.5 + 5% (No.5) = 111.8
Bra.Ebert  98.7 + 5% (No.3) = 103.6
L.Shiels 81.5 + 5% (No.3) = 85.5
C.Masten 85 + 5% (No.3) = 89.2
N.Foley 95.8 + 5% (No.5) = 100.5
N.Van Berlo 89 + 5% (No.5) = 93.8
M.Leuenberger  81.5 + (No.9) = 92.8
P.Ryder 90.2 + 5% (No.3) = 94.7
B.Whitecross 89.3 + 5% (No.3) = 93.7** obviously will miss most of the year
D.Martin 85 + 5% (No.3) = 89.2
L.Breust 75.6 + 5% (No.3) = 79.3

TOTAL= 1354.6 + 111.8 (C) = 1466.4