EXV predictions thread.

[Ziplock]

haha, no issue.

[The F.A.R.K.]

Wow Zip very nice writeup and they are all very fair predictions.
Have to agree with Lez on Broughton tho. Can see him going back to his earlier seasons when he played a lot of midfield at Freo and was around 90ish.

Agree broughton will be a beast at gc but remember this is gc he will ave 95 at best 60 at worst. Thats a huge gap and too much risk for my liking so wont be in my dt. Reckon to be fair hell ave 80-85. Gc have heaps of mids they recruited broughts to play hb/fwd

[Ziplock]

Thanks for the review Zip you did a great job :)

On the topic of my backs, I think it is deceiving a bit as although my backs aren't outstanding, it is an area that the rest of the comp also struggle in. I actually rated my backs to be the 4th best out of 14 teams and with the bonus of having the depth some other teams don't I am actually not really worried at all with them.

My mids you are right are too weak at the moment and unless there is some serious improvement (which isn't out of the question) then I will struggle to amass scores to contend.

Looking forward to your other reviews :)

yeah just did a quick look at the backs, and honestly, yours aren't actually too bad :P

you're behind serbia and bisons by my count, and valkyries as well :P

my point wasnt just on the scoring potential this year though, it was  more long  term- hartlett and broughts in danger of losing dpp, guerra retiring soon...

[Ziplock]

Team: Belarus Bison
Coach: LaHug
Predicted ranking and average score: 4th, 1527
Scoring breakdown including captain bonus

Back   Scotland   100
Back   Suckling   83
Back   Duffield   95
Back   Taylor   75
Mid   Mitchell   210
Mid   Kelly   97
Mid   Armitage   95
Mid   Ball   93
Ruck   Jacobs   94
Fwd   Zorko   93
Fwd   Rockliff   110
Fwd   Roughead   92
Fwd   Bolton   90
Util   Sylvia   95
Util   Mundy   105

Analysis:
The Bisons are a very strong, and underrated team- I've got them in 4th currently, but honestly they could easily push top 2. The greatest strength in their team is their forward line- Rockliff, Roughead, Bolton, Sylvia, Zorko, is an incredibly powerful combination. It's unfortunate for the Bisons and their coaches that Xavier Ellis lost defensive eligibility, or they could have been boasting a top 2 defensive line as well.

Backs: Scotland is a proven scoring machine- he's old, and won't be around for many more years, but I think high 90s is what we can still expect from him this year. Suckling unfortunately seems to be attracted to the green a little too much, but still easily falls into the premium euros range. Duffield is an absolute beast playing off HB without broughton, and hopefully for bison, as I've tipped, he can keep this up this year. Unfortunately, Belarus just don't seem to have the 4th defender to really add icing to the cake, Harry Taylor is more of a key defender, and we can't really expect more than a 75 average from him, and unfortunately a lot of the cover falls into this area as well.

Chaplin is a key defender as well, Jordan Russell might provide that 80 odd scoring for a year or two if he's lucky, although first he needs to break into the pies outfit. Luke Brown, is, from what I hear, a solid enough performer... but his scoring capabilities currently leave much to be desired, that being said, him along with bootsma hopefully should be able to provide replacements for scotland when he retires, and hopefully wright can show some skill too. Blake is clearly just temporary cover. Thornton wont be around for long either, and who really can tell his scoring ability.

It is however, almost a perfectly balanced structure, young and highly rated medium defenders coming through, in a team that has 2 reasonably aged premium defenders, and one old defender, with plenty of cover. However, a phrase I'm sure I'm going to be repeating a lot- it could do with one more premium back.

Mids: The bisons have a couple of major midfield issues. The first one is the lack of 100+ mids, with only mitchell, who barely qualifies as a captaincy option, and Mundy if he ever stays fit. The other major problem is the age- Ball is 29, Mitchell 31, Kelly 30, Mundy 28, hardly spring chickens. This wouldnt be too much of a concern, but the only young and potentially dt relevant midfielders belarus boasts currently are gysberts and armitage. Next draft that should probably be their first priority, the current best midfielders are running out of time extremely fast.

These issues are alright however, since Belarus balances them out extremely well with their next two lines

Rucks: Jacobs, Roughead. Great combination, and roughies dpp is definitely a bonus. The cover beyond that is a bit shaky, but it's no major deal- graham can score ok when given the opportunity, and should jacobs go down, he'll be right up there pushing for a gig.

Fwd: This is definitely where the bisons run away with it- imo, easily the best fwd line in the competition. Zorko could potentially boost his average further (although personally I doubt it), while Rockliff should be, fully fit and hopefully in the mids, a 110 player once again. Even a 'bad' season for him pulled out a 90 average. Roughead and Bolton, while getting on are more than serviceable, and Sylvia really just rounds it out as a utiliyu. Superb.

The cover is still pretty solid as well, Monfries, Stokes, Lynch are definitely serviceable, with younger players such as Jones, Cook, Membrey, Wood, Duffy also, hopefully, providing a decent future. Extremely well balanced line up.

Best part of the team: Phenomenal forward line, easily takes this out.
Greatest weakness:  this team is pretty well rounded, but I'm going to say the age and the kind of average midfield scoring is a bit of a concern. For the 2013 draft, unless a gem happens to raise its head, I'd be trying to grab a talented young midfielder in the national, and hopefully an undrafted talent in the rookie. They'll need a bit of luck though, considering bisons won't be having a top 10 pick by my estimates.
How to Win the flag: Bisons would need a little luck, but not much of it. Their cover is very solid, especially in the ruck and forward lines, what they could really do with would be Suckling just cutting out those vests, and Mitchell + Mundy hopefully reaching the 110 range that we know they can get. I think that, and rockliff  getting back to form, is what the bisons are really depending on.

[Holz]

another great read zip. I can see the bison causing some problems for me next year that forward line is soo good its essentially having 2 midfields.

[Ricochet]

If they Bison use Rocky as captain they jump us into 3rd :P

[CrowsFan]

Nice write up Zip, really appreciate it. I noticed that you mentioned Blake and Cook in our team, but we actually delisted them before the rookie draft and picked up Luke Russell and Josh Jenkins, not sure if you saw my updated team squad in our thread? I think Luke Russell could easily become our 4th back this year, take away his subbed games (I know it's always bad to do that) and he averaged 71.7, and I reckon he can push that up higher again. Then Jenkins will be used as cover for if Jacobs goes down, as you can see we have 3 Adelaide rucks so should be fine if there are injuries to one or 2 of them :)

My other question is you have Mitchell as captain scoring 210, so 105 before doubling it, but Rockliff 110, so why isn't he captain?

Great write up once again :)

[Ziplock]

yeah I didnt see the updated squad unfortunately, jenkins is really good for your ruckline as well- is he R/F?

I think that's because I see mitchells 105 as more likely than rockys 110, we'll see though :P

[Nails]

Looking good Zip

Can't wait for a Swedish Metal review :o

[Justin Bieber]

Can't wait to see my shower team get grilled lol.

[CrowsFan]

Yep Jenkins is ruck/fwd, but I don't think he will be seeing many games this season. Later down the track though should do alright :)

[Ricochet]

Can't wait to see my shower team get grilled lol.

can't wait for Zips hate of the Bashers

[PowerBug]

Sweden will come 4th last in 2013. Greece, Lez and the Bashers will finish below us. Bison will win the comp becuase CrowsFan is the smartest guy on the forum.

[CrowsFan]

Wow that's big praise PB! :o don't know what would make you think I'm the smartest though...

[Holz]

Sweden will come 4th last in 2013. Greece, Lez and the Bashers will finish below us. Bison will win the comp becuase CrowsFan is the smartest guy on the forum.

how about spoon winers to flag favourite?