EXV predictions thread.

[Holz]

Liam Anthony 101... Hmmmm. If that's true then Torp would be spewing lol

athony has the capibilities to beat that score. If everything goes right i can see him going 105.

Its the chance he is dropped or an injury occurs again that is the problem, he can score no doubtr about that. He is basically like sandi (except sandi has 100% JS)

[Ricochet]

Yeh i know its not perfect, but its the closest i can think to getting decent averages.
Happy for suggestions on changes?

[Nails]

Bit underrated by Zip there I feel

McLean should be good for a 105 average, Jobe Watson, Shane Tuck and Scott Thompson... our midfield is up there with everyone else....

And then our fwd line is JET.

Zip underrated us. I feel we're a top 2-3 team.

[Ricochet]

Bit underrated by Zip there I feel

McLean should be good for a 105 average, Jobe Watson, Shane Tuck and Scott Thompson... our midfield is up there with everyone else....

And then our fwd line is JET.

Zip underrated us. I feel we're a top 2-3 team.

1.- Players who are going into their second year will keep that same average
2.- Players who are 20-21-22-23 who havent broken out yet, receive a 10 point increase on average
3.- Players who are 20-21-22-23-24-25-26 who have broken out receive a 5% increase
4.- Players who are 27-28-29 who haven't broken out for the 2nd time, receive a 10 point increase
5.- Players who are 27-28-29 who have broken out for the 2nd time, receive a 5% point increase
6.- Players who are 30 years old and above receive a 5% deduction from last years average
7.- Players that are over 21 and move clubs get their highest career average for a season.
8.- Players that are under 21 and move clubs get a 20 point increase on last years average.
9.- Players who have played less than 5 games due to injury get their 2011 average

Unsubbed 2012 Scores    /    2013 predicted averages
Enright 80.7 - 5% (No.6) = 76.6
Newman 71 - 5% (No.6) = 67.4 ** Would expect Grimes or Batchelor to step in here
Lake 76.2 (No.7) = 99.7 ** Its a big ask but has done it before
Dempster 75.4 + 5% (No.5) = 79.1
Watson 112.4 - 5% (No.5) = 118
Thompson 104.8 - 5% (No.6) = 99.5
Tuck 107.5 - 5% (No.6) = 102.1
Montagna 96.6 - 5% (No.6) = 91.7
Hayes 97.3 - 5% (No.6) = 92.4
Mclean 103 + 5% (No.3) = 108.1
Cox 99.6 - 5% (No.6) = 94.6
Brown 79.5 - 5% (No.6) = 75.5
Stevie J 102.2 - 5% (No.6) = 97.0
Bartel 96.7 - 5% (No.6) = 91.8
NRoo 88.5 - 5% (No.6) = 84.0

TOTAL= 1377.5 + 118 (C) = 1495.5

How much the boys over 30 will decline is you biggest issue Nails. 5% might be a bit too harsh, especially for guys like Thommo and Hayes

[Ziplock]

Bit underrated by Zip there I feel

McLean should be good for a 105 average, Jobe Watson, Shane Tuck and Scott Thompson... our midfield is up there with everyone else....

And then our fwd line is JET.

Zip underrated us. I feel we're a top 2-3 team.

the biggest issue is your backline, as you can see, rics formulated estimates about agree with mine.

[Justin Bieber]

WOw Watson averaging 118. He won't trump his brownlow year... Props if he does and get keen then lol.

[Ricochet]

WOw Watson averaging 118. He won't trump his brownlow year... Props if he does and get keen then lol.

He did go 116 up until RD 11 and then Essendon went to shower so i wouldn't say its not achievable.
The Swan prediction of 140 is way out there, but then again who would have thought he would increased his average by 13pts this year.

[Ziplock]

Team: Macedonia
Coach: Scrads
Predicted rank and average score: 7th, 1440
Scoring breakdown (Including captain bonus)

Back   Broughton   100
Back   Hartlett   95
Back   Guerra   75
Back   Pederson   80
Mid   Stanton   210
Mid   Ebert   100
Mid   Shiels   80
Mid   Masten   90
Ruck   Leuenberger   90
For   Ryder   90
For   Whitecross   80
For   Martin   95
For   Breust   80
Util   Foley   90
Util   Van Berlo   85


Analysis: Macedonias starting 15 is solid, without being spectacular, each line spearheaded by one or two fantasy greats, but with average support backing them up. The biggest inherent weakness in this team is the lack of average players, such as shiels, masten, who at this point hold the team back (although both have room for improvement), and the lack of a genuine captaincy option, being forced to rely on stanton. Considering the euros season only runs for just over half the AFL season, if stanton fires in the wrong part of the year, it'll spell disaster for the wolves.

Backs: Broughton is, as always, a gamble. If used defensively as a back, he'll be scoring 70s-80s. If used as a midfielder, he'll go 100+ and be an A grade back. That being said, at that point he'll lose his defence eligibility, potentially harmful to the teams long term. Hartlett has a similar conundrum, although in his case it's more of a question of fitness. Pedersons estimate has been quite generous, but the wolves are really in lack for a solid 4th backman, relying on an aged guerra... clearly the future hopes are being pinned on Howard, since with Jaensch's questionable JS, the relative unknown quantity that is stevenson, and the poor scoring potential of the remaining backs, there's not much left.

At the very least though, Macedonia has a backline which has supremely good cover- unless absolutely devastated by injury, it's nearly inconceivable that Scrads will be forced to play someone as defence cover OOP.

Mids: I've already spoken about stantons inconsistency as an issue- on the positive note, the addition of Goddard to the bombers midfield could shift the tag from him... that being said, I would not want to depend on him as my teams first captaincy option. Ebert and Masten both demonstrated this year exactly why they were first round draft picks, and with any luck, should continue to improve. Every Euros coach knows of Shiels scoring potential- one that was tempting enough to force the currently infamous trade of Joel Selwood for Liam Shiels straight swap, which was hotly contested and debated in the 2012 pre-season. If he's used as a tagger, it's unlikely shiels will ever crack the 90 mark. If  allowed to go free however, he has the potential to mix it with the best, and, in my opinion would be the number one captaincy choice at the wolves.

As a whole, including foley and vanberlo, both solid scorers in their own right, the fielded mids are definitely serviceable, with substantial potential, however currently are probably a bit sub par to really push for a top 4 side.

The midfield cover is pretty impressive for this team- you have vince, whilst being 28 this year and coming off an average season, has shown that he can average 100+ before, Mackay a 25 year old mid, who from a fantasy perspective is coming into his boom or bust year. Savage is a highly rated young midfielder, averaging nearly 70 unsubbed this year, his biggest issue is that he hasn't as of yet managed to cement himself in the Hawks best 21, and he's been used a bit as the super sub this year, if he can shake that off with a bit of pre-season improvement I wouldn't be surprised if he began to take the field in the best 15 for Macedonia. Hrovat is a high draft pick and talented player, while Anderson is a GWS zone player, both solid for the future as  well.

Basically, in order for scrads to really challenge this year, he needs his midfield to step up- that being said, he's managed to get the players that makes that seem very likely, it's extremely well structured.

Rucks: You could argue one of the strongest in the league, with Ryder and Leuenberger, both 90+ at their best, with rateed youngsters like cordy and daw on the bench. Ryder being played up forward out of necessity detracts from this line a bit, but in essence, if the Wolves number one ruck goes down, it can be covered by an 80+ forward who takes ryders spot. Definitely one of the teams strong points.

Forwards: Another impressive line, Whitecross, as you'll notice, has his average a little bit low- I've decreased it on the assumption that, despite whitecross being an 85-90+ player, he's going to have to be covered by a subpar player for half the season while he recovers from his ACL injury. Breust averaging 76 in his second year bodes very well for Scrads, and Dustin Martin is a beast- the only concern with him is that he may eventually move into a full time midfield role.

The cover on the forward line is nothing to sniff at either- Kennedy is a solid player, 75-80+ key forward, Jetta is a machine as well, the only issue with him is that his run and carry is so impressive, he cops a lot of attention and doesnt get very many cheap possessions. Frank, Lamb, Paine, Wilkes all show varying potential, and at the very least should provide decent cover in a few years, while sculz and callinans JS will be invaluable if injury strikes. Walters fits well in this team- he's surroundede by players of good JS, and by youth, to the point where a gamble like him is worth taking in this team. The biggest problem with this forward line, is that as of yet, it doesn't really have any premiums- I'm tipping Martin for a huge year, and ryders already a quasi premium, but as of now, Scrads is relying on improvement from talented players.

Best part of the team: The Ruck Line is phenomenal. The forwards are very impressive as well, although one more 90+ player is probably needed at this stage.

Greatest weakness: the backline, at this point, the 4th back for the wolves is very sketchy, and even pederson has a few doubts surrounding him, the other issue is the lack of quality youth that could break out and really cover these deficiencies, from my point of view, there's just howard.

How to win the flag: Unfortunately, this year it's probably just out of Scrads reach- I have him at well over 100 points deficit of Serbi. That being said, all four of his starting mids are definitely capable of going 100+, and that's pretty much the improvement he needs. However, although that *probably* wouldn't quite get him there, it would definitely put the wolves in the mix. It is also completely plausible that Howard could break out to 80+, if both of these things happen, I definitely wouldn't be writing Scrads off.

Most importantly, both of those things probably will happen in the next 2 years... the only concern is whether broughton and hartlett will still be maintaining their defence eligibility by then.

Although this is only my first review, at this stage, considering Scrads best 15 and his cover, I'd be extremely surprised if he didn't make the top 8. Next year he should probably consider going hard for a premium defender though.

[Holz]

Exceptional work zip can't wait to see the bashers and eagles get reviewed.

[CrowsFan]

Nice analysis zip :)
Looking forward to the one on the dark horses, or should I say dark Bison? ;)

[Justin Bieber]

Good work Zip :) But Broughton will struggle to hit 90! I'm a GC supporter and he won't excel...

[Ziplock]

Good work Zip :) But Broughton will struggle to hit 90! I'm a GC supporter and he won't excel...

if he's played mids, he will, he always has... he's a beast dter in the midfield.

off hb, he'll be alright.

in a lockdown role though... :/

[Ricochet]

Wow Zip very nice writeup and they are all very fair predictions.
Have to agree with Lez on Broughton tho. Can see him going back to his earlier seasons when he played a lot of midfield at Freo and was around 90ish.

[Justin Bieber]

Good Coast ae in DT shower. Gary is half the ave. with Swallow, Bennell, Prestia, Riska and other all increase their average, how is Broughton going to dominate by so much?

[Scrads]

Thanks for the review Zip you did a great job :)

On the topic of my backs, I think it is deceiving a bit as although my backs aren't outstanding, it is an area that the rest of the comp also struggle in. I actually rated my backs to be the 4th best out of 14 teams and with the bonus of having the depth some other teams don't I am actually not really worried at all with them.

My mids you are right are too weak at the moment and unless there is some serious improvement (which isn't out of the question) then I will struggle to amass scores to contend.

Looking forward to your other reviews :)