My team ... with LOTS of my own reasoning and analysis ...

[mpollock]

My team:

B: Goddard, H.Shaw, Scotland, Gibbs, Birchall, B.Goodes (Colquhoun, Terlich)
M: Ablett, Swan, Cotchin, Mundy, Embly, K.Mitchell, O'Meara, Viney (Crouch, Hirovat)
R: Goldstein, Luenberger (Daw, McBean)
F: Franklin, Cox, A.Goodes, Martin, Lee, Growden (Membrey, Dwyer)

Kitty $3,301

Appreciate any feedback guys ... (Note: I am aware Scotland may or may not suspended)

Reasoning:

Backs: I have loaded my backs and gone all out here ... last year i was stuck with Ellis and Morris getting 50s all the time and had trouble upgrading them.  I am not sold on many of the other options averaging 100 and i think most people will start 3 rookies ... as i am only starting one here i think this gives me a 100 point potential advantage.  I will watch Scotland as he may or may not get suspended but he is easy to change out anyway.  H.Shaw tends to have some brain fades off the field he is ALWAYS in the top few defenders so he is a must have for me ... i also think he will be a unique as not many will roll the dice with him.

Midfield:  I went for a couple of guys who will destroy you if you don't have them ... Ablett and Swan.  I also went for the air apparent in T.Cotchin as this kid could even take his 116 average of last year to a new Ablett like level.  Then i looked for some real value to offset my big spend on the backs ... Mundy could easily raise his average back to over a 100 so he is a lock.  Embly is cheap as ... prior to getting injured last year he has consistently played around 20 games and averaged low 90s ... this seems like a great cash cow.  He has also been training the house down apparently.

Rucks:  Fairly standard here ... Goldstein provides good value (may consider McIntosh still however) and Luey is a lock for 99.99% of teams.

Forwards:  I have gone for Buddy as he can destroy you if you don't ... then D.Cox for many reasons.  He is so consistent and allows me to easily swap him in for Luey if he goes down injured.  I again looked for value and A.Goodes and D.Martin are both well under what they could achieve.  I am not overly keen on A.Goodes but at that price he fits my team structure and budgets well.

Rookies:  I have most of the popular ones at present ... will watch the NAB of course ... Dwyer is on the rookie list so will get swapped out if he doesn't get elevated.  I have tried to avoid wasting money on players like Staker and McCaffer who are not quite rookie prices as i don't like their chances of playing 22 games to be honest ...

Bye: 11 | 9 | 10 - Not perfect but i don't think it has to be ... i have a to many round 13 defenders but we have 30 trades this year ... i don't mind sideways trading to get around this if needed.  My top 18 for each of the bye rounds will still be really strong.  Looking at the rules you get your top 18 regardless of if they are selected as emg or not ... this makes the byes really fairly insignificant compared to last year.

DDP: I have gone for Cox and McBean here ... why?  Luey is not the most reliable guy in the world to not get injured ... not are any ruckman.  This gives me an easy replacement.  i also have 7 other players classed as midfielders playing in other positions ... i don't have DDP links in my mids however but i can at least trade them in if a gun defender comes along for example.

Conclusion:  I think i have invested in the expensive guys who will really hurt you if you don't have them ... Ablett, Swan, Cotchin and Franklin.  I have gone for some value with Mundy/Embly/Goodes.  I have gone for Martin to finally break out this year after staying away from him last year.  I have loaded my defence to try and gain an advantage over the other teams who will play more rookies here while trying not to hurt my other lines to much.

Please let me know what you think ...

[popedelio]

you pretty much critiqued your whole team by your own analysis hahaha. But yes keep an eye on scotland, with all his off filed shenanigans. I would also say pendles is undervalued, can be swapped with cotch. Mundy will improve, though i cannot see him reaching great levels of scoring. you could be better off trying to pick a young player who is going to improve there average. young players that i can see going premo can be like fyfe, shuey, sselwood etc.
Other then that not much more I can say :)

[GCSkiwi]

My team:

B: Goddard, H.Shaw, Scotland, Gibbs, Birchall, B.Goodes (Colquhoun, Terlich)
M: Ablett, Swan, Cotchin, Mundy, Embly, K.Mitchell, O'Meara, Viney (Crouch, Hirovat)
R: Goldstein, Luenberger (Daw, McBean)
F: Franklin, Cox, A.Goodes, Martin, Lee, Growden (Membrey, Dwyer)

Kitty $3,301

Appreciate any feedback guys ... (Note: I am aware Scotland may or may not suspended)

Reasoning:

Backs: I have loaded my backs and gone all out here ... last year i was stuck with Ellis and Morris getting 50s all the time and had trouble upgrading them.  I am not sold on many of the other options averaging 100 and i think most people will start 3 rookies ... as i am only starting one here i think this gives me a 100 point potential advantage.  I will watch Scotland as he may or may not get suspended but he is easy to change out anyway.  H.Shaw tends to have some brain fades off the field he is ALWAYS in the top few defenders so he is a must have for me ... i also think he will be a unique as not many will roll the dice with him.

a 100 point potential advantage over another team's defence, but at the expense of other positions in the team as a whole... I don't really understand why some here analyse line by line, as it's the team scoring potential which matters.

Midfield:  I went for a couple of guys who will destroy you if you don't have them ... Ablett and Swan.  I also went for the air apparent in T.Cotchin as this kid could even take his 116 average of last year to a new Ablett like level.  Then i looked for some real value to offset my big spend on the backs ... Mundy could easily raise his average back to over a 100 so he is a lock.  Embly is cheap as ... prior to getting injured last year he has consistently played around 20 games and averaged low 90s ... this seems like a great cash cow.  He has also been training the house down apparently.

Ablett, Swan, Cotchin all nice, Mundy definite value, Embley could smash it. But only absolute bankable ones are those first three, if you cut someone out of your defense you could turn embley or mundy to another real prem. This is where your 100 point "advantage" in defense shows. Also given the quality of players in the midfield I think it's a bit rich to say anyone will destroy you if you don't have them. There's plenty of good choices, again it comes back to the team as a whole. I agree you need quality players, and personally I think Ablett is a must, but any of Swan, pendles, beams, watson really are pretty similar.

Forwards:  I have gone for Buddy as he can destroy you if you don't ... then D.Cox for many reasons.  He is so consistent and allows me to easily swap him in for Luey if he goes down injured.  I again looked for value and A.Goodes and D.Martin are both well under what they could achieve.  I am not overly keen on A.Goodes but at that price he fits my team structure and budgets well.


Conclusion:  I think i have invested in the expensive guys who will really hurt you if you don't have them ... Ablett, Swan, Cotchin and Franklin.  I have gone for some value with Mundy/Embly/Goodes.  I have gone for Martin to finally break out this year after staying away from him last year.  I have loaded my defence to try and gain an advantage over the other teams who will play more rookies here while trying not to hurt my other lines to much

I think you have hurt your other lines with your defensive overload... Buddy is in my team but I'm not 100% sold on him yet, not sure he's really worth the price. Not the most consistent bloke even if he can smash massive scores. Goodes and Martin risky, Goodes is a legend but I think age is finally starting to catch him after last season. Martin has burned me but I agree could be good, I'm not risking him again.

My overall thought is that I see the strategy you're going for, I just question it's usefullness. Backs are usually the lowest scoring line, sure all those blokes will be fairly consistent around 90-110 but it will be rare that one of them goes much higher. spending that cash elsewhere you will get someone who should match the 90-110 average but a greater chance of 130+ (Like Pavlich in the fwd line or any number of options in the mids...)

[mpollock]

Fyfe is a definate option instead of Mundy ... i will be watching him in the pre-season to see how his recovery is going.  Shuey and S.Selwood are in another price bracket so not an option unless i restructure my team.

I am happy to overspend in Defence as this is my whole strategy.  I could easily cut some money out of my backline and put another couple of premier mids in to make my team more pleasing to the eye ... but i think from a maths and future trading perspective it doesn't make sense.

If you take for example Birchall out and replace with a rookie ... then you would go from a guy who i expect to average 90-110 somewhere to a back rookie who generally in recent seasons only seems to average around 50ish.  They also tend to be more in and out of the team then midfield rookies with the exception of mature ago guys in lower teams like a B.Goodes this year perhaps.  So this is a points different of around 50 ... or 100 if i did the same with a Gibbs/Scotland or someone ...

With the money i save from Birchell i could upgrade lets say someone like Viney (or any gun mid rookie) for lets say a 500k midfielder like maybe Rockcliff or Gaff .. if i want someone better like a J.Selwood or even a Shuey then i would also need to trade somewhere else as well ... further weakening my other lines.  I would expect a Gaff for example to average perhaps 100-110 at best ... maybe 10 better then a Birchall.  But i expect a mid rookie like Viney to average more like 70-80 as opposed to a back rookie like Colquhoun for example who will be more around 50ish.  i also expect him to have better job security.  Hence i get a small advantage of around 10 points ... (the 50/100 i mentioned was just comparing a Birchall to another back rookie on that line).

The other key factor is that it is easy to jump on the breakout midfielders and midfield rookie as there are lots of them ... fixing your backline is hard ... there just are never that many options!!

When i refer to players who can hurt you i am talking about those guys who can pull out monster scores ... Ablett, Swan and Franklin are the best at doing this ... Usually when a Pendles or Watson for example do this it hurts you but doesn't absolutely destroy you like a 200 score can ... but yes, there are plenty of options out there and other players who can really hurt you as well ...

My basic approach:

- Pick the weekest line and stack it
- Pick the line with all the gun rookies and play 3 as starters with two good reserves
- Have DPP link in rucks as from experience they tend to go down ... Sandlilands, Mumford, Luey for example
- Look for value for money ... Mundy/Embly/Goodes/Martin
- Get the few guys who can destroy it ... thiis allows you to not get blown away from the field when Ablett, Swan and Franklin all pull out 150+ scores in the same week
- Don't jump on to many guys that have already broken out ... Cotchin, Dangerfield, Shuey ... still playing with this as there is more upside to Shuey then Cotchin ... may end up going with S.Thomson for example as a safe option with an easy early draw
- Don't stress to much about the byes ... you just need 18 playing who are fairly solid and you will trade between now and then given injury and the fact we have extra trades this year ...

Thanks for the feedback guys ... :)

[GCSkiwi]

Yeah I see what you're saying, I guess I just don't agree with the idea in principle, not that it wont work. It will work as you say but I just think from the get go you're going to slip back as your aced up backline is not going to make up the difference you lose in the fwds and mids. It COULD but on average I would back a stronger mid/fwd line to beat the difference you gain in defence. But if that's your strategy go for it, could be genius and I might eat my words ;)

[mpollock]

I take your point and i had considered that i may slip behind early.
My strategy is pretty dependent on Mundy/Embly starting the year well.

I am still looking at 4 players to see if i can improve my side without changing my strategy:

- Cotchin and Mundy
- A.Goodes and Martin
- Birchall

There is a fair bit of money invested in these guys so i may be able to save some ...
If Bock is fit i will probably swap him in for Birchall as i don't see this weakening my back line to much.
Broughton is an option but he burnt me in the past and really don't want to go back there ...

There are a lot of cheapish forwards i am going to watch as well: Vickery, Le Cras, Menzel, Varcoe, Byrnes to name a few ...

[mpollock]

A few updates:

B: Goddard (m), H.Shaw, Gibbs, Birchall, L.Osborne, B.Goodes (m), (Colquhoun (m), Terlich (m))

M: Ablett, Swan, Kennedy, Cotchin, Embley, O'Meara, Crouch, Hirovat, (Viney, Jones)

R: Cox (r), Leuenberger, (Daw, McBean(f))

F: Franklin, Naitanui (r), Ryder (r), Martin (m), Mayes (m), Lee, (Growden, Dwyer (m))

Will be watching the fitness of Nic Nac leading up the season ...
Will also watch to see if B.Goodes and Dwyer get promoted ...

[Ringo]

Solid team now:
Only commenting on Prem players as Rookies will change based on form, promotion and being named,
DEF: Solid just 3 prems with Round 13 bye tgo consider but we are all struggling with this.
MID: Solid - Consider Pendles over Swan if he spends more time forward this year. Watch in NAB Cup.  Just my opinion but believe Swan more suited to DT than SC.  Risk with Embley which may pay off.
RUCK: Very solid with DPP - If Nat does not come up consider moving Cox forward and replace with Sandi, Maric or Jacobs. (Sandi looking great in training from reports).  With DPP you have the flexibility of replacing with forward.
FWDS: Solid but would consider replaing one of the Rookies with Staker who will play every game.

With Goodes he comes home with a wet sail in SC so would look at getting him after byes if he follows his past seasons form.

[mpollock]

Thanks Ringo.

Yeah, i swapped A.Goodes out for that exact reason.

I also evened out my side a little with only 4 premiums in my defense and made my forwards a big stronger with 4 really good prospects now as well.

Really torn on what to do about the bye ... with 30 trades i am considering just doing some sideways trading ...

I would prefer Scotland over Birchall to be honest but it makes my bye structure even worse (and he may end up suspended anyway).