Is Ablett really a lock?

[Ringo]

I am in 2 minds whether to start with Ablett with one of the reasons being his back injury.  He has missed games with it last year and will it flare again this year.  Another player to add to the mix given his improvement last year is Dion Prestia,  With more Players on the increase at the Suns will GAJ's share of the SC points decrease slightly.

The other interesting fact to take into consideration is that last year was his 2nd highest average for the 6 years SC has been going.  Previous 2 years has been 129 and 127. This equates to about a $675k price in SC approx 70k less.

Last year those that got him in after the Bye reaped the benefit as his price fell to $600k and he scored exceedingly well in the next 9 matches.

Interesting dilemna do we start with GAJ or do we bring him in later hoping with high B/e's his price will fall allowing upgrade.

[Presto]

Is Ablett a lock?
Is the Pope Catholic?
Is Dame Edna a man?

This has to be the fifth year in a raw that this question has been asked. And every year the great man answered the same way:

2008    18 games     132.2 ave
2009    19            140.1
2010    21            129.9
2011    20            127.1
2012    20            138.4

And still there are coaches that doubt his ability to reproduce his form.
Even if this were his worst year at an ave of 125, it would still be a lock.

[kilbluff1985]

mate he is getting older so people have every right to question him

any decent coach should have concerns about every player

[Footyrulz]

no one is ever a lock, especially premiums. i reckon its just completely in your discretion as to whether u get ablett or not. i dont think his scoing will be much affeced, but theres no chance that he'll get his breakeveen of 145-150 (not 100 % sure what though i know its more than hes priced at).

if u have a plan of how and when (an absolute must!) of getting ablett then thats absolutely fine, especially if ure only going for league because then u dont desperately need the points as much early.

[Ace]

Think that the problem rising is that IF you don't have him & do want him & even if his price does come down it will still take a good 2 or more trades + cash to get him in. Just my thoughts tho.

As stated would also be the same with all the other premiums

[jimmytigs]

darn good topic,although it seems it comes up every year,with dt & sc i might split policies on gaj,hes going to be in your side no matter what & there is no doubt about his scoring,the way my sc team is right now he is in it & ive still got 500k in bank,i have 6 premium mids including goddard & rockliff for dpp.Wasting a trade to drag gaj in later is not an issue this year with 30 trades,something i dont think anyone has touched on yet.So its definately worth considering 5/5 without gazza & dragging him in for round 4 when his price may be in the 600s(saints caned him last season,swans are best in comp & surely the hometown rival lions wont let him run too rampant)& 1 of your rookies has risen to say 200k.

Worth considering but i still favour starting with him,but in dt,which i consider secondary,i might go the other way.

[kilbluff1985]

my 5 premos with GAJ and Ball as my 6th will own you most weeks :)

MID: G. Ablett jnr, S. Pendlebury, T. Cotchin, K. Jack, N. Fyfe, L. Ball, O. Wines, B. Crouch (J. O'Meara, J. Viney)

[Adamant]

Like every year, Ablett is definitely a lock for me.

He is just a player that you can't overthink - the man has averaged 127+ 5 years in a row. Just lock him in and enjoy the monster scores.

[jimmytigs]

my 5 premos with GAJ and Ball as my 6th will own you most weeks :)

MID: G. Ablett jnr, S. Pendlebury, T. Cotchin, K. Jack, N. Fyfe, L. Ball, O. Wines, B. Crouch (J. O'Meara, J. Viney)

ablett pendlebury murphy cotchin goddard rockliff crouch omeara(morabito m.jones)
i will take you on,but we are on pretty similar lines,if k.aylett of suns looks the goods i will switch goddard back & bring in boyd,keep eye on cowan & viney as well but im steering clear of ball who spuds it up often & im going strictly top shelf,dont think jack is there quite yet,fyfe is your dpp i guess,will be interesting he vs rockliff & i dont see a need for early draft picks & the 60/70k extra for them(o.wines)

[kilbluff1985]

my 5 premos with GAJ and Ball as my 6th will own you most weeks :)

MID: G. Ablett jnr, S. Pendlebury, T. Cotchin, K. Jack, N. Fyfe, L. Ball, O. Wines, B. Crouch (J. O'Meara, J. Viney)

ablett pendlebury murphy cotchin goddard rockliff crouch omeara(morabito m.jones)
i will take you on,but we are on pretty similar lines,if k.aylett of suns looks the goods i will switch goddard back & bring in boyd,keep eye on cowan & viney as well but im steering clear of ball who spuds it up often & im going strictly top shelf,dont think jack is there quite yet,fyfe is your dpp i guess,will be interesting he vs rockliff & i dont see a need for early draft picks & the 60/70k extra for them(o.wines)

dude my post was about you saying you were thinking about having 5 premos without GAJ so how can you then post a midfield with GAJ?

Ball will be my bench cover when i complete my team

[GCSkiwi]

Realistically even those talking about getting Gaz as an upgrade later in the season, you'll have to swap a good player for him or wait a long way into the season. For example, let's say after the first three rounds he has a bad run (110 ish?), his price might drop by 100k. If you're lucky. Round three, $640,000, you'll still have to swap a pretty big name player for him. You wont have rookies that cashed up. If you wait for your rookies to cash up to get him, let's say at around $650,000, for a straight upgrade/downgrade you'll still be waiting until mid season to do that. If it's really worth the risk of missing his points for half a season, go nuts. But he's proven himself as a great scorer, and for me at least it's not worth that risk. Not to mention the risk that he actually smashes it and his price doesn't drop very much at all.

With 30 trades I think the issue is more time than trades, you'll have the trade power to do it but how long are you willing to have him not in your team? Unless you think you can go the whole season without him, get him now is my opinion.

[Grazz]

Its the same story we see every year. Coaches seeing Gaz's price having a heart attack then trying to justify to themselves that he is to expensive at that price ie "His price will drop considerably"  "His role will change in the team"  "The GCS midfield has improved to the point he wont get as much ball" even though at the Cats he was playing in one of the best midfields we'd seen for awhile. All the same stuff that continues to be wrong year in year out and 3 games into the season we will start seeing "bloody hell should of started with Gaz" or "Why didnt i start with Gaz when i had the chance he's killing me every week in oppositions sides".

People who continue to throw up well we have 30 trades to get him in, i say you'll need the extra six trades to get him as you'll burn 3 of them atleast to secure him while i'll still have those 3 trades. Ask yourselves how many times in the past have i eventually realised not starting Gaz was a blue, then ask yourselves how many times starting Gaz was a blue, theres your answer right there.

[jimmytigs]

my 5 premos with GAJ and Ball as my 6th will own you most weeks :)

MID: G. Ablett jnr, S. Pendlebury, T. Cotchin, K. Jack, N. Fyfe, L. Ball, O. Wines, B. Crouch (J. O'Meara, J. Viney)

ablett pendlebury murphy cotchin goddard rockliff crouch omeara(morabito m.jones)
i will take you on,but we are on pretty similar lines,if k.aylett of suns looks the goods i will switch goddard back & bring in boyd,keep eye on cowan & viney as well but im steering clear of ball who spuds it up often & im going strictly top shelf,dont think jack is there quite yet,fyfe is your dpp i guess,will be interesting he vs rockliff & i dont see a need for early draft picks & the 60/70k extra for them(o.wines)

dude my post was about you saying you were thinking about having 5 premos without GAJ so how can you then post a midfield with GAJ?

Ball will be my bench cover when i complete my team

ok cool,i did clarify that i was sticking with him in my post,but yeah agreed minus gaj id be smashed,but im figuring he would be in for round 4 anyway,so hed miss 1 league game only,iits worth thinking about but overall better to just have him in

[SydneyRox]

Simple answer - Yes.

[Grazz]

Not sure youd of generated enough cash by round 4 to get him, you'll need to burn 2 trades in round 4 and then another 2 in rnd 5 to get him that early unless your leaving alot of cash in the bank from the start. 4 trades to get one man removes alot of your extra 6 trade advantage this year while those who start with him will still have them and need less to ugrade their M5-M8's. That will also only be possible if there are other rookies worth purchasing in rnd 4 and 5 as you could be stuck with duds by going this route.