Is Ablett really a lock?

[miffysp]

Call me crazy but I have a little concern about the little master.
People always go on about midfield premiums scores being effected by other players in the team breaking out and taking on more of a role within their respective teams. Is anyone concerned about all the potential improvement within the youngsters and how it could possibly bring down abletts scores???
I am one of his biggest fans don't get me wrong and I still have him in my squad.
Just interested to see what people have to say

[CrowsFan]

Well considering when he was at Geelong he still had 3 years of averaging over 129 in a row (including one year of 140), I doubt his teammates will effect his scoring much at all.

[miffysp]

Yeah good point. But back than there wasn't a limit to how many points were awarded per game. Now there is a limit of 3300 points. And with other players starting to get more of the pie it only makes sense doesn't it that ablett will receive less.
Quite often he would get twice more disposals than any other gc player. I can't see that happening too much this year unless he somehow gets 60+ disposals. He is the only player who could possibly do that come to think of it

[meow meow]

Plenty of points to go around. Take Collingwood for example;

Dane Swan - 124.62
Scott Pendlebury - 124.62
Dayne Beams - 122.25
Steele Sidebottom - 104.04
Heath Shaw - 99.71
Darren Jolly - 95.20
Dale Thomas - 94.55

GC have 5 players capable of averaging around 100. Not all 5 of them will, and the ones that do will be low 100's. Gazza is a special player and nothing will stop him, least of all his own team mates!

[GCSkiwi]

I think if you're serious about either league or overall you will struggle to do it without Gaz. Not impossible but he's a rocket. With that said, there are a number of top class mids and Gaz has a huge breakeven, even for his standards. Could be a great call to leave him out for someone cheaper at the beginning and then pick him up later on once his price has dropped. High risk, potentially high reward.

For me, I don't think the risk is worth it, I have no doubt he will drop in price but given first three rounds of Saints, Swans and Lions I don't know how quickly or significantly he will drop in price. By mid season maybe but at that point you're a way back in the race.

Still, it all depends on the team as a whole. Looking at the stats, Gaz in 2012 was 12PPG higher, and played 2 more games than Swan, the next highest average. For that you pay 65K more. could be that you pick Swan instead of Gaz and that 65K bumps up a player elsewhere, earning you more than 12ppg on average...

[CrowsFan]

Yeah good point. But back than there wasn't a limit to how many points were awarded per game. Now there is a limit of 3300 points. And with other players starting to get more of the pie it only makes sense doesn't it that ablett will receive less.

Sorry I'm about 95% sure that SC has always had a limit of 3300 points per game. Even back when Ablett was playing for Geelong...

[Grazz]

Yeah good point. But back than there wasn't a limit to how many points were awarded per game. Now there is a limit of 3300 points. And with other players starting to get more of the pie it only makes sense doesn't it that ablett will receive less.

Sorry I'm about 95% sure that SC has always had a limit of 3300 points per game. Even back when Ablett was playing for Geelong...

Think your right CF, ive been playing SC for atleast 5 years and as far as i know the 3300 cap has been in place over that time.
Could be wrong but i dont think i am.

[Sabretooth Tigers]

Doubt that there's any player worth the upgrade money gained from not having The Little Champ ( sorry Bobby Skilton ) that will guarantee more points than having him in. Plus on top of that does anybody truly believe that Gazza has reached his scoring cieling yet. Think SC will not be won by leaving Gazza out. Cheers.

[shorty3264]

He will still dominate, on the flipside the improvement from the Suns could see him get extra help and dominate just as much. He is a champion, don't think the question is his scoring more so his pricetag and where it fits in with the rest of your side.

[Bluesman]

YES!!

[Torress]

YES!!

with not a doubt my absolute 1st picked no questions. i love this debate every pre season!

[enzedder]

YES!!

with not a doubt my absolute 1st picked no questions. i love this debate every pre season!

Agree. Worth every cent and best to have him from Round 1. Don't have to worry about :missing out on his points, captain choice, when his value will drop to be able to afford him, finding money to afford him, double trade to afford him, etc.....

[JBs-Hawks]

Don't be cheap, lock him in.

[theta]

Remember its not 1 Ablett we're locking in, its 2 Abletts.  Last year that was worth at least an extra 24ppg. 

Unless you're confident you can do better with the 65k-140k extra it costs to get him (assuming his replacement would be worth 600k+), then he has to be a lock.

[cortez]

How old is he now 29? And can he average. Mid 130's with an interrupted preseason and players like Swallow, Bennell, Stanley and Broughton taking points plus the chance of him playing more in the forward line. Yes he is a gun and yes he will be in my team at some point in the year but I cant see him holding his price or scoring that much more than Watson, Cotchin, Pendlebury and Selwood to justify spending 80-100k extra on him.