Is Ablett really a lock?

[hannebery2rohan]

The problem with not having him from the start is that it's really hard to get him in later on.

30 trades says otherwise i reckon.

Sure but you still need a plan tom get him, Ball upgrade, Fyfe/Mundy augrade? Waht's the thinking behind not starting him

I dunno, i think the people that don't start with him aren't thinking in the first place :P Will take 3 trades to get him in though most likely, which the 30 trades would allow people to do. I guess the extra money is an attractive option, but people only hurt themselves when they don't have him when he pumps out a 180 as captain. He should be everybodies first pick and build  a team around him. Don't get me wrong, it could work out without him, but it would take a shrewd and SC genius to be able to do it and rank highly at the end of the year.

[Millhouse]

Depends what the rest of your side looks like in terms of risk. He's a great set and forget player especially with the captaincy, despite the price

[tor01doc]

Worth every last cent.

Why risk missing out on his 160 (x2) for the sake of picking up a lesser player to save money so you can get a 'better' mid or a 'better' rookie.

He is solid gold.

[locknload]

Agree. Worth every cent. Look I understand you want to save cash.. and Ablett does take up a big chunk of your salary cap but.. you really can't be cheap on this one.
Pay up and get him in your team.

[colmullet]

I hear the kid who lives in the little shack at the bottom of the street who talks to himself and spends his days trying to catch birds with a butterfly net isn't picking Ablett......he's the only one i know of though

[quinny88]

I hear the kid who lives in the little shack at the bottom of the street who talks to himself and spends his days trying to catch birds with a butterfly net isn't picking Ablett......he's the only one i know of though

Nah even he ended up getting him  ::)

[redfield]

I can tell you from personal experience that starting without Ablett will all but consign you to a finish outside the top 2,000 and even that would require a very good year with regard to all other decisions. I can't remember which years it was exactly but, for three straight years (08-10 IIRC), I stubbornly refused to select Ablett in my initial team, believing that I could spend the money better elsewhere and gain an advantage on those who started with him. It didn't work. I'll quickly go through some of the reasons why.

1. Because Ablett is almost always a lock for the captaincy, you need to remember that you're giving away twice the difference between Ablett's score and the score of the alternative player in your M1 slot.

2. Even if you do not select Ablett as captain, given his scoring potency, you will have to assume that you're starting behind the 8-ball on a weekly basis and you are betting on the best SC pick of the last 6 years to do poorly. This is the equivalent of betting against the house. Sometimes you will end up ahead but, over the journey, you're almost guaranteed to end up behind. This leads me to my next point.

3. If you do not start with Ablett then you will almost certainly find yourself wanting to trade him in but in all likelihood, the cost in terms of trades (definitely) and $$$ (probably, unless he fails to make his BE score in a few consecutive weeks) will put you even further behind when compared to any conceivable gains you might make by not initially selecting him. This means that if you do not start with him you will likely have to commit to not bringing him in at all.

I guess, despite all this, it is logically possible to do very well, and maybe even win, without selecting Ablett in your starting team but realistically speaking, it is a bad bet and there are much more calculated risks that you could take which offer a better chance of reward and lower risk.

[hannebery2rohan]

Redfield hit the nail on the head!

[ubeaut]

It's the CAPTAINCY that makes GAJ such a lock/must have. If another player could be ur perma captain with as much success and u spent he money getting points elsewhere then yes it COULD work. BUT who wants the stress of choosing the right captain every single week? NOT ME!

[Free Kick]

Let past years be a lesson to all that don't have Ablett from the start..

YOU WILL REGRET IT !! :-[

[mark621]

i had a shocker last year ill admit, only getting in the top 15k, mainly due to an awesome run of 15 or 16 injuries that burned a good portion of trades.. lets not talk about last year i was just the injury king

the year before though i hit in the top 700
no ablett till round 16

its like buying a house. you want the biggest baddest house in the best subburb, its 1 million to get
you buy that, and i buy 4 x 250k properties, i RESEARCH and pick right hopefully. i found 2 places that ill keep cause they are keepers, cash in 200k on an increase of another for a 250k place, and upgrade my last that is now worth 400 to ablett cause hes droped so much cash

he started near 800k last season, i grabbed him for 600, which doing research and picked up JPK, scooter, and a host of others at dirt cheap
if not for a bucket load of injuries i would have hoped to be up higher.

lets face it

gaz is great, no doubts.. i remember when judd and swan were called the perma captains, now look at gaz, next look at ????
they dont stay perma captains till retirement people
gaz is 28 this year, then look at the midfield around him all entering 3rd years afl and 4th year senior playing due to the year before afl debut playing at state level

i will swim in the swan river if gaz averages 145 or above cause it wont happen

you may lose maybe 1k points in the first half of the year till you get him, but you gain 2k points on selecting the right players that go wild that the people who spent the money on ablett couldnt afford

[Grazz]

Gaz started at 689k and finished at 701k in 2012 mate. From memory the most he dropped was about 48k-60k not sure.

[S_Coach99]

what are you going to use the extra money for...

Varcoe to Kennedy
Kennedy to Cloke
Newman to Heppell

Big deal...

Just get the bald master in and there's you perma cap

[mark621]

Gaz started at 689k and finished at 701k in 2012 mate. From memory the most he dropped was about 40k.

dropped more that 40, i know cause off memory i grabbed him for about 600

[hannebery2rohan]

Gaz started at 689k and finished at 701k in 2012 mate. From memory the most he dropped was about 40k.

dropped more that 40, i know cause off memory i grabbed him for about 600

Whilst that may be true. The people that started with him enjoyed his captaincy scores of 188, 182, 155, 150, 143, 139 etc up until then. People might be waiting all year for him to drop in price, by then it's too late. The people that started with him will already be well ahead.