Why is everyone picking Cotchin over Watson?

[Toga]

Good numbers zip, that's essentially the order I would have I think!

Only thing is, those numbers from CF were about Murphy not Cotchin ;)

[tbagrocks]

Therefore, don't pick Watson or Cotchin, pick Dangerman instead! He hasn't broken out yet :P So this will be his year 8)

[Ziplock]

and gibbs post round 13 2011 averaged 115.5
and rocky in 2011 post round 13 averaged 121

to iterate more specifically, unless a player is carrying a pre-season injury (such as sylvia, grimes etc.), that clearly hindered their scoring ability, I don't really subscribe to the 'strong finish to a year means they'll explode next year'- there's more than 7 months between the last round and first round... all you need is a player to not work as hard (not necessarily being lazy, but just not going at 100% ) during pre-season, and that 'form' means nothing.

basically,  you're not going to retain form for 7 months :P

people will be able to give me specific examples of when they have (for example beams last year, from memory), but that being said, there would be equally as many cases when this didn't succeed (people just dont pay as much attention to them, since us dantasy footballers are always desperate for trends etc.)

Good numbers zip, that's essentially the order I would have I think!

Only thing is, those numbers from CF were about Murphy not Cotchin ;)

damn! I assumed since it was in the richmond thread, it was about cotchin.

I'll quickly do a write up on cotchin being tagged

Round/Team/ Score
3/MELB/110
4/GEEL/105
5/ WCE/ 110 (to be fair, wasnt  tagged Q1 when he scored 37 points)
6/PORT/61
7/SYD/96
8/ESS/ 143
12/ GWS/87
14/ADEL/111
15/MELB/ 106
18/CARL/108
19/BRIS/103
20/WBD/152
22/ESS/145
23/PORT/121

=111.3 ppg

he basically destroys carlton, essendon, GC, geelong but doesnt fare as well against collingwood, brisbane, adelaide, north, stk or gws (low sample size though)

considering he plays essendon, carlton, freo, wbd all twice, and last year he averaged 144 against essendon, 119 against carlton, 107 against freo and 152 vs WBD, I still maintain he's a better option than beams :P

[Toga]

Haha fair enough, We were talkin about murph cos tbag asked what makes cotch different to murph/rocky after breaking out ;)

Again, great numbers! Really seems as though while there isnt a lot between Watson and cotch, IMO cotch has more upside and is at less risk of 'breakout blues' than Murphy and rocky have had in the past, barring injury!

[kilbluff1985]

only reason Rocky dropped off is because Voss put him forward nothing to do with his ability, Hardwick wont do the same

[Toga]

only reason Rocky dropped off is because Voss put him forward nothing to do with his ability, Hardwick wont do the same

Yep that was my reasoning on the other thread. Rockliff was dropped forward due to team structure reasons, and murph suffered from injury+struggle with tags, both resulting in dropped fantasy output. I don't think Cotch will do the same!

[essendon2]

only reason Rocky dropped off is because Voss put him forward nothing to do with his ability, Hardwick wont do the same

Yep that was my reasoning on the other thread. Rockliff was dropped forward due to team structure reasons, and murph suffered from injury+struggle with tags, both resulting in dropped fantasy output. I don't think Cotch will do the same!

I think Pendles is a better option than Cotchin though

[Toga]

only reason Rocky dropped off is because Voss put him forward nothing to do with his ability, Hardwick wont do the same

Yep that was my reasoning on the other thread. Rockliff was dropped forward due to team structure reasons, and murph suffered from injury+struggle with tags, both resulting in dropped fantasy output. I don't think Cotch will do the same!

I think Pendles is a better option than Cotchin though

Same ;) pendles swan and gaj are locked, M4 will be cotch, Murphy or redden I think!

[Adamant]

only reason Rocky dropped off is because Voss put him forward nothing to do with his ability, Hardwick wont do the same

Yep that was my reasoning on the other thread. Rockliff was dropped forward due to team structure reasons, and murph suffered from injury+struggle with tags, both resulting in dropped fantasy output. I don't think Cotch will do the same!

I think Pendles is a better option than Cotchin though

I think Pendles should be a lock in every serious coaches midfield.

[essendon2]

only reason Rocky dropped off is because Voss put him forward nothing to do with his ability, Hardwick wont do the same

Yep that was my reasoning on the other thread. Rockliff was dropped forward due to team structure reasons, and murph suffered from injury+struggle with tags, both resulting in dropped fantasy output. I don't think Cotch will do the same!

I think Pendles is a better option than Cotchin though

Same ;) pendles swan and gaj are locked, M4 will be cotch, Murphy or redden I think!

Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Redden, Wines, Mayes, Hrovat, O'Meara (Viney, Colquhoun (DPP))

[kilbluff1985]

only reason Rocky dropped off is because Voss put him forward nothing to do with his ability, Hardwick wont do the same

Yep that was my reasoning on the other thread. Rockliff was dropped forward due to team structure reasons, and murph suffered from injury+struggle with tags, both resulting in dropped fantasy output. I don't think Cotch will do the same!

I think Pendles is a better option than Cotchin though

Same ;) pendles swan and gaj are locked, M4 will be cotch, Murphy or redden I think!

good luck in round 13 with Swan, GAJ, Pendles & Murphy :o

[Toga]

only reason Rocky dropped off is because Voss put him forward nothing to do with his ability, Hardwick wont do the same

Yep that was my reasoning on the other thread. Rockliff was dropped forward due to team structure reasons, and murph suffered from injury+struggle with tags, both resulting in dropped fantasy output. I don't think Cotch will do the same!

I think Pendles is a better option than Cotchin though

Same ;) pendles swan and gaj are locked, M4 will be cotch, Murphy or redden I think!

good luck in round 13 with Swan, GAJ, Pendles & Murphy :o

More likely to be cotch or redden because of this ;)

[Torress]

haha, mines nearly reversed.

I would go pendles> boyd>Watson>cotchin> beams

It's a really bad idea to pick a player post breakout.

for instance, midfield premiums (I'm taking an average of 108+ as a premium average, and once they surpass that they've 'broken out')

Swan 09- 119.1 age: 25
10- 123

Ablett: 08- 111.7 age: 24
09- 118

Boyd: 10- 115 age: 28
11-116

Pendlebury: 11- 117 age: 23
12- 110

Thompson: 11- 109 age: 28
12-105

Mitchell- 11-112 age: 29
12: 101

Murphy: 11- 111 age: 24
12-101

Chapman: 09- 113 age: 28
10- 114

Goddard: 10- 113 age: 25
11-96

Montagna:09- 116 age: 26
10-112

Bartel: 07- 114 age: 24
08- 113

Rockliff- 11-112 age: 21
12- 93

gibbs doesnt quite fit the critera, but kind of demonstrates my point anyway

anyway, we have 12 samples there of premiums (not including gibbs)

only 4 of which increased their average the next year (swan, ablett, boyd, chapman), by an average of 3 ppg

the remaining 8 had their average decrease by an average of 9.1 ppg

the average age for the players who increased their average the year after break out was 26.25

the average age of the players who decreased their average the year after break out was 25

the biggest issue with these stats is that it comes from such a small pool- but from it you can see that 75% of 'premium' mids, after their first break out year, suffer an average drop of 9.1 ppg, triple that of the 25% of premium mids who increase their average by only 3 ppg.

the average age of the players who drop in average (25) is more than a year younger than the average age of players who increase their average.

both cotchin and beams were 22 when they broke out this year... that definitely slides them into the younger category.

on top of that, bemas has the concern of ball coming back, affecting his scores, while cotchin, as can be seen in this post by CF

Every time he was tagged (according to monty), he scored sub-100.

Sorry Toga that's incorrect. The lock just shows he was tagged effectively. If you hover over the icons you will find he was tagged in these games...

Team - DT/SC
Brisbane - 115/147
Essendon - 114/120
GWS - 94/89
St Kilda - 68/73
Western Bulldogs - 85/108
Richmond - 113/160
Brisbane - 99/117
Gold Coast - 92/98
St Kilda - 76/78

Average - 95.1/110


So even in the games he was tagged he still average a very healthy 110 in SC!

only averages 95.1 in DT when tagged. I don't know about beams stats, honestly I think I've crunched enough already :P

oddly enough, I actually wrote my order

pendles> boyd>Watson>cotchin> beams

before I looked any of that up specifically :S but, it's still pretty much concurrent. Explanations for my ratings

1. Pendles: He's young, has proven to average 115+, and you can attribute a lot of his drop in scoring due to his leg fracture, making him underpriced, but still premium.
2. Boyd: Proven premium, also unique starter this year, only concern is his age... honestly, I think he should be fine though, hasn't really shown much evidence of sliding as of yet. The age is the only reason why he isn't no.1
3. Watson: Goddard may shift the tag occasionally, that being said, he's already the number one tag- and as the above stats showed, older players are *generally* more likely to increase their average post break out, and at 28 in 2012 (from memory), watson fits that build.
4. Cotchin- young enough that its a concern he'll drop his average, that being said, he doesn't have the same concerns as beams
5. Beams- also young enough to be a concern post break out, but on top of that, hasnt really dealt with much tagging yet, and has ball coming back.


*note* just realised I missed redden in my calculations: no big deal, he just drops the average age even more for average points decreased, although he drops the points decreased to like 8.8


my point is made eitherway- anything else anyone says is speculation and opinion, not stats ;)

mate, best post i've read for quite some time. thankyou for the effort love the 1%'s!

i haven't made a DT in years - infact i've only ever done it once about 4 -5 years ago and hated the game. only do a SC but its still horse for courses - i think cotch and watson are better SC picks than DT picks mostly due to the inside work they both do - jobe is better inside player imo and with GOD rotating, watson should just rest forward more and he proved to be a very hard match up when resting forward due to his size and marking ability. but both will be solid as DT picks don;t get me wrong

i think cotch could get more numbers - we know he is a gun inside player, we also know he has had limited pre seasons, except for the last 2. 2012 he started getting more outside ball - i think due to increase fitness. throw in another preseason; surely more outside ball due to increase fitness? his inside stuff will keep him amoungst it.

these guys are both solid starting picks.

cotch is the class runner but jobe is the war horse. both have their days.

and zip - again solid as post and sensational reading mate - and i agree the old finished off the season so he'll smash it next year is overated. too many variables late in the season to really get a feel for whats going on at a start of a season to pick starting players!

[Windigo]

I just look at Beams' numbers last year and that is all the evidence I need.  :)

[Torress]

I just look at Beams' numbers last year and that is all the evidence I need.  :)

yep he was awsome wasn't he... thought he would of come home stronger in the brownlow as well.