Why is everyone picking Cotchin over Watson?

[Mr.Craig]

Cotchin has a higher ceiling, Watson had more 120+ games. Cotchin has a younger body, Watson has an older head. Cotchin's average went up 19 points, Watson's went up 13. Cotchin has played 61 games in the last 3 years, Watson's played 59.

There's really not much separating them.

[Windigo]

I had Watson locked in for ages, but have found a bit extra $$$ and got in Beams.  :P

But I have neither as this stage.

[Football Factory]

I had Watson locked in for ages, but have found a bit extra $$$ and got in Beams.  :P

But I have neither as this stage.

lol   ;D

[theflyinghawk]

I don't understand it, am I missing something? Jobe shows sheer consistency and amazing talent and he will no doubt back up his 2012 average of 112.5

Cotchin is being hyped by the majority of FF users to average 118... I think this is definitely risky as he will be tagged more often in 2013 and I'm not certain he can break a tag like Watson can.

I just think Watson is a safer pick at the moment, what are your thoughts?

For what its worth I don't think there will be a lot seperating them but i think it's pretty clear why people are picking cotch. You can't give watson's sheer talent as an argument here, cotchin is a more talented player, not that that means a better player. The tagging thing confuses me also, cotchin got the number 1 tag every week and handled it very well, was remarkably consistent as was watson. if i remember correctly didn't jobe get tagged out of the game by daniel jackson when you played them?  ;D ;D
Nah but in all seriousness cotch can get better, doubt jobe can, cotch is younger and has a better bye round, I think he will just shade Jobe this year

[essendon2]

I don't understand it, am I missing something? Jobe shows sheer consistency and amazing talent and he will no doubt back up his 2012 average of 112.5

Cotchin is being hyped by the majority of FF users to average 118... I think this is definitely risky as he will be tagged more often in 2013 and I'm not certain he can break a tag like Watson can.

I just think Watson is a safer pick at the moment, what are your thoughts?

For what its worth I don't think there will be a lot seperating them but i think it's pretty clear why people are picking cotch. You can't give watson's sheer talent as an argument here, cotchin is a more talented player, not that that means a better player. The tagging thing confuses me also, cotchin got the number 1 tag every week and handled it very well, was remarkably consistent as was watson. if i remember correctly didn't jobe get tagged out of the game by daniel jackson when you played them?  ;D ;D
Nah but in all seriousness cotch can get better, doubt jobe can, cotch is younger and has a better bye round, I think he will just shade Jobe this year

fair point(s)

but Jobe also got 3 votes against Richmond in Round 8 ;)

[basil3134]

I think both these guys are guns and will average about the same. They even play similar I think. Both have shown they can handle the tag and go forward and kick goals.
I don't have either in DT at the moment but I have Jobe in SC.
I plan to have both ASAP.
I too have noticed most teams have Cotch and very few have Jobe, you should just be happy to have a pod.

It is assumed that the captaincy will sit easy with Cotchin and not impact on his scoring potential

[Toga]

I think both these guys are guns and will average about the same. They even play similar I think. Both have shown they can handle the tag and go forward and kick goals.
I don't have either in DT at the moment but I have Jobe in SC.
I plan to have both ASAP.
I too have noticed most teams have Cotch and very few have Jobe, you should just be happy to have a pod.

It is assumed that the captaincy will sit easy with Cotchin and not impact on his scoring potential

For the most part young blokes coming into the captaincy have improved there fantasy scoring (ward, Selwood) so I reckon well be right ;)

I think the Bombers and Richmond have alot of potential and both will be up there in the coming years

There's a bit of bias coming through there fella's Toga for Richmond and Essendon2 obviously for the dons.

Their both great players .. i am going to lean towards Cotchin over Watson in dreamteam but are both well worth putting into your team imo

Yeah I probably am a bit biased but it seems the general consensus that while both are gun footballers, and that they appear very even on paper, cotch seems to have more scope for improvement than jobe. In saying that, both will be good picks I am sure, but I will start with cotch and maybe upgrade someone to Watson.

[Capper]

I actually have both of them in my DT team at the moment along with GAJ. Cant see myself taking any of those 3 out of my starting lineup before the season starts

[Adamant]

At his young age, Cotchin should improve on his already elite 110 average... whereas Jobe had a career best season and most people think he will stay about the same. Both good options, but I have neither. :P

[tbagrocks]

At his young age, Cotchin should improve on his already elite 110 average... whereas Jobe had a career best season and most people think he will stay about the same. Both good options, but I have neither. :P

What bothers me about Cotch is, remember Rocky, Redden and improtantly Marc Murphy last year ???

Players don't always match their breakout year the following year, probably mainly due to increased attention and tags

[Adamant]

At his young age, Cotchin should improve on his already elite 110 average... whereas Jobe had a career best season and most people think he will stay about the same. Both good options, but I have neither. :P

What bothers me about Cotch is, remember Rocky, Redden and improtantly Marc Murphy last year ???

Players don't always match their breakout year the following year, probably mainly due to increased attention and tags

Yep, that's exactly why im not starting with Cotch.

I honestly think he will improve, but I was burnt by Rocky last year and would prefer to see how he goes first.

[tbagrocks]

That's what i'm starting to think Ads, even if his average stays at 110 early he will drop slightly in price anyway

[essendon2]

At his young age, Cotchin should improve on his already elite 110 average... whereas Jobe had a career best season and most people think he will stay about the same. Both good options, but I have neither. :P

What bothers me about Cotch is, remember Rocky, Redden and improtantly Marc Murphy last year ???

Players don't always match their breakout year the following year, probably mainly due to increased attention and tags

Yep, that's exactly why im not starting with Cotch.

I honestly think he will improve, but I was burnt by Rocky last year and would prefer to see how he goes first.

Yeah I think Beams > Watson > Pendles > Cotchin > Boyd

[Ziplock]

haha, mines nearly reversed.

I would go pendles> boyd>Watson>cotchin> beams

It's a really bad idea to pick a player post breakout.

for instance, midfield premiums (I'm taking an average of 108+ as a premium average, and once they surpass that they've 'broken out')

Swan 09- 119.1 age: 25
10- 123

Ablett: 08- 111.7 age: 24
09- 118

Boyd: 10- 115 age: 28
11-116

Pendlebury: 11- 117 age: 23
12- 110

Thompson: 11- 109 age: 28
12-105

Mitchell- 11-112 age: 29
12: 101

Murphy: 11- 111 age: 24
12-101

Chapman: 09- 113 age: 28
10- 114

Goddard: 10- 113 age: 25
11-96

Montagna:09- 116 age: 26
10-112

Bartel: 07- 114 age: 24
08- 113

Rockliff- 11-112 age: 21
12- 93

gibbs doesnt quite fit the critera, but kind of demonstrates my point anyway

anyway, we have 12 samples there of premiums (not including gibbs)

only 4 of which increased their average the next year (swan, ablett, boyd, chapman), by an average of 3 ppg

the remaining 8 had their average decrease by an average of 9.1 ppg

the average age for the players who increased their average the year after break out was 26.25

the average age of the players who decreased their average the year after break out was 25

the biggest issue with these stats is that it comes from such a small pool- but from it you can see that 75% of 'premium' mids, after their first break out year, suffer an average drop of 9.1 ppg, triple that of the 25% of premium mids who increase their average by only 3 ppg.

the average age of the players who drop in average (25) is more than a year younger than the average age of players who increase their average.

both cotchin and beams were 22 when they broke out this year... that definitely slides them into the younger category.

on top of that, bemas has the concern of ball coming back, affecting his scores, while cotchin, as can be seen in this post by CF

Every time he was tagged (according to monty), he scored sub-100.

Sorry Toga that's incorrect. The lock just shows he was tagged effectively. If you hover over the icons you will find he was tagged in these games...

Team - DT/SC
Brisbane - 115/147
Essendon - 114/120
GWS - 94/89
St Kilda - 68/73
Western Bulldogs - 85/108
Richmond - 113/160
Brisbane - 99/117
Gold Coast - 92/98
St Kilda - 76/78

Average - 95.1/110


So even in the games he was tagged he still average a very healthy 110 in SC!

only averages 95.1 in DT when tagged. I don't know about beams stats, honestly I think I've crunched enough already :P

oddly enough, I actually wrote my order

pendles> boyd>Watson>cotchin> beams

before I looked any of that up specifically :S but, it's still pretty much concurrent. Explanations for my ratings

1. Pendles: He's young, has proven to average 115+, and you can attribute a lot of his drop in scoring due to his leg fracture, making him underpriced, but still premium.
2. Boyd: Proven premium, also unique starter this year, only concern is his age... honestly, I think he should be fine though, hasn't really shown much evidence of sliding as of yet. The age is the only reason why he isn't no.1
3. Watson: Goddard may shift the tag occasionally, that being said, he's already the number one tag- and as the above stats showed, older players are *generally* more likely to increase their average post break out, and at 28 in 2012 (from memory), watson fits that build.
4. Cotchin- young enough that its a concern he'll drop his average, that being said, he doesn't have the same concerns as beams
5. Beams- also young enough to be a concern post break out, but on top of that, hasnt really dealt with much tagging yet, and has ball coming back.


*note* just realised I missed redden in my calculations: no big deal, he just drops the average age even more for average points decreased, although he drops the points decreased to like 8.8


my point is made eitherway- anything else anyone says is speculation and opinion, not stats ;) 

[essendon2]

haha, mines nearly reversed.

I would go pendles> boyd>Watson>cotchin> beams

It's a really bad idea to pick a player post breakout.

for instance, midfield premiums (I'm taking an average of 108+ as a premium average, and once they surpass that they've 'broken out')

Swan 09- 119.1 age: 25
10- 123

Ablett: 08- 111.7 age: 24
09- 118

Boyd: 10- 115 age: 28
11-116

Pendlebury: 11- 117 age: 23
12- 110

Thompson: 11- 109 age: 28
12-105

Mitchell- 11-112 age: 29
12: 101

Murphy: 11- 111 age: 24
12-101

Chapman: 09- 113 age: 28
10- 114

Goddard: 10- 113 age: 25
11-96

Montagna:09- 116 age: 26
10-112

Bartel: 07- 114 age: 24
08- 113

Rockliff- 11-112 age: 21
12- 93

gibbs doesnt quite fit the critera, but kind of demonstrates my point anyway

anyway, we have 12 samples there of premiums (not including gibbs)

only 4 of which increased their average the next year (swan, ablett, boyd, chapman), by an average of 3 ppg

the remaining 8 had their average decrease by an average of 9.1 ppg

the average age for the players who increased their average the year after break out was 26.25

the average age of the players who decreased their average the year after break out was 25

the biggest issue with these stats is that it comes from such a small pool- but from it you can see that 75% of 'premium' mids, after their first break out year, suffer an average drop of 9.1 ppg, triple that of the 25% of premium mids who increase their average by only 3 ppg.

the average age of the players who drop in average (25) is more than a year younger than the average age of players who increase their average.

both cotchin and beams were 22 when they broke out this year... that definitely slides them into the younger category.

on top of that, bemas has the concern of ball coming back, affecting his scores, while cotchin, as can be seen in this post by CF

Every time he was tagged (according to monty), he scored sub-100.

Sorry Toga that's incorrect. The lock just shows he was tagged effectively. If you hover over the icons you will find he was tagged in these games...

Team - DT/SC
Brisbane - 115/147
Essendon - 114/120
GWS - 94/89
St Kilda - 68/73
Western Bulldogs - 85/108
Richmond - 113/160
Brisbane - 99/117
Gold Coast - 92/98
St Kilda - 76/78

Average - 95.1/110


So even in the games he was tagged he still average a very healthy 110 in SC!

only averages 95.1 in DT when tagged. I don't know about beams stats, honestly I think I've crunched enough already :P

oddly enough, I actually wrote my order

pendles> boyd>Watson>cotchin> beams

before I looked any of that up specifically :S but, it's still pretty much concurrent. Explanations for my ratings

1. Pendles: He's young, has proven to average 115+, and you can attribute a lot of his drop in scoring due to his leg fracture, making him underpriced, but still premium.
2. Boyd: Proven premium, also unique starter this year, only concern is his age... honestly, I think he should be fine though, hasn't really shown much evidence of sliding as of yet. The age is the only reason why he isn't no.1
3. Watson: Goddard may shift the tag occasionally, that being said, he's already the number one tag- and as the above stats showed, older players are *generally* more likely to increase their average post break out, and at 28 in 2012 (from memory), watson fits that build.
4. Cotchin- young enough that its a concern he'll drop his average, that being said, he doesn't have the same concerns as beams
5. Beams- also young enough to be a concern post break out, but on top of that, hasnt really dealt with much tagging yet, and has ball coming back.


*note* just realised I missed redden in my calculations: no big deal, he just drops the average age even more for average points decreased, although he drops the points decreased to like 8.8


my point is made eitherway- anything else anyone says is speculation and opinion, not stats ;)

loved all of that!!

but just on Redden, pre Round 5, he averaged 82.. post Round 5 he averaged 109! He'll lift to average 115+ in 2013!