Essendon Bombers Player Profiles For 2013 SC/XV

[AFEV]

SC/XV Profiles 2013

Here I will profile every Essendon player for SC and XVs. Unfortunately my opinion on DT really isn't worth hearing so I won't be putting that here, however if somebody with more knowledge of the game wants to that would be great.

Please refrain from posting until each post has been reserved.

Credit to tabs for the idea.

Jason Ashby
Mark Baguley
Tom Bellchambers
Alex Browne
Jake Carlisle
Travis Colyer
Stewart Crameri
Joe Daniher
Alwyn Davey
Luke Davis
Cory Dell'Olio
Courtenay Dempsey
Dustin Fletcher
Martin Gleeson
Brendon Goddard
Sean Gregory
Scott Gumbleton
Kyle Hardingham
Dyson Heppell
Michael Hibberd
David Hille
Heath Hocking
Cale Hooker
Ben Howlett
Michael Hurley
Leroy Jetta
Elliot Kavanagh
Nick Kommer
Nathan Lovett-Murray
Jake Melksham
Jackson Merrett
David Myers
Nicholas O'Brien
Tayte Pears
Patrick Ryder
Brent Stanton
Dylan Van Unen
Jobe Watson
Jason Winderlich
David Zaharakis
Lachlan Dalgeish
Hal Hunter

[AFEV]

#14 Jason Ashby

Statistical Overview

DOB: 16/04/94
Height: 185cm
Weight: 77kg

Recruited from Oakleigh Chargers
Recruited at: ND #34

Role: Small/running defender
Likelihood of game time: Below average-average
Estimated 2013 games: 5-7
Scoring potential: 50-60 PPG

Fanplanner price: 94,200



Summary

Unfortunately for Jason he plays a role that a lot of more mature players at the club also play and his opportunities in 2013 may be limited. While Heppell and (potentially) Dempsey moving up the ground does open up some spots for running defenders, Ashby will have a lot of competition for a spot in the best 22.

Not only are there established players like Hardingham, Browne and Hibberd but Dylan Van Unen was taken as a mature age recruit at ND #51 and will likely be ahead of Ashby in development for 2013.

Of course Hibberd and Dempsey (if he doesn't move up) are both very injury prone, and Browne and Hardingham are both 'droppable' so I think he will debut this year, but he probably won't play enough games to warrant selection unless his pre-season is outstanding.



Verdict

I wouldn't unless he does something out of the ordinary during the NAB. I'd be wary as a downgrade target as well, JS will be horrible.

[AFEV]

#46 Mark Baguley

	2012	Career
Average:	65.43	65.43
Games:	7	7
Centuries:	0	0
Century %:	0	0
High Score:	83	83
Low Score:	48	48
Standard Dev:	12.84	12.84
Starting Price:	94,700	N/A
High Price:	255,700	N/A
Low Price:	94,700	N/A
Fanplanner:	312,600	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Bombers		Def/Mid		Rookie listed		180cm		83kg		25

Baguley showed a lot in 2013 and managed to get himself promoted onto the senior list. His elite disposal of the ball makes him a perfect candidate for SuperCoach selection...only things getting in his way are that he doesn't get a whole lot of the ball and his JS is shaky.

While he established himself as a B22 contender in 2012 there are still a lot of people that will be pushing for his spot in 2013 and I definitely wouldn't be surprised if some of them forced their way in at different points in the season.

If he can get a bit more of the ball he could become a fringe-premium defender. In the one game he got over 20 disposals he pumped out 86. I can't see him doing this consistently though and while he's a serviceable player on the field at 311k he represents very little value in the fantasy world.

For XVs he might be worth a look if you get the opportunity to pick him up cheaply. At 25 he will be able to provide some great D depth for a few years, if you're light down back as a lot of teams are he could definitely be worth picking up.

I'm definitely not ballsy enough to pick him, I can see him averaging 80 but his JS is kind of shaky and 80 wouldn't really make the punt worth it anyway...

Prediction: +13 78

[AFEV]

#2 Bellchambers, Tom

	2012	Career
Average:	85.81	62.47
Games:	16	43
Centuries:	6	7
Century %:	37.5%	16.3%
High Score:	130	130
Low Score:	31	3
Standard Dev:	29.0	35.1
Starting Price:	387,400	N/A
High Price:	447,900	N/A
Low Price:	369,700	N/A
Fanplanner:	455,700	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Bombers		Ruck		#8 PSD '07		202cm		106kg		23

Tom Bellchambers stepped his game up to a new level in 2012 and is ready to finally take on the #1 ruck role at Essendon in 2013. At 23 he is still extremely young for a ruckman and I think he is primed to join the group of elite ruckmen in the AFL and it's fantasy realms. I'm backing him to be the most improved ruckman in 2013, whether this translates to an SC average increase is up for debate, however I can definitely see Tom averaging 105 in 2013.

With 2 of the best ruck options in Naitanui and Cox being announced as forward MPPs, players like Bellchambers are suddenly coming into (my) calculations. I wouldn't have thought to take the risk on Big B had Naitanui been available, with plans to take the regulation NicNat/Leuenberger combination. Now there are decisions to make.

When I look at the alternatives I can't help but think they're better options, but I'm still drawn to Belly. Maric, Sandilands, Jolly, McEvoy, Jacobs, Giles, Roughead. Post-breakout, injuries, old, shower team, actually a good option, not sure about his role, injuries. They're great players, but I feel like Bellchambers could equal their scoring for a smaller price while providing a nice POD as well.

I suspect I'll be one of few that are considering this move, and the reactions will probably be similar to the Jenkins profile, but there is something about Belly. 

Maybe...maybeeeeeee....He's definitely going under the microscope come NAB time and I'll be keeping tabs on him between now and then.

Prediction: 20 105

[AFEV]

#24 Alex Browne

	2012	Career
Average:	56.7	46.5
Games:	6	8
Centuries:	0	0
Century %:	0%	0%
High Score:	79	79
Low Score:	6	6
Standard Dev:	27.0	29.6
Starting Price:	113,200	N/A
High Price:	250,300	N/A
Low Price:	113,200	N/A
Fanplanner:	301,200	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Bombers		Defence		#48 ND '10		187cm		85kg		20

Alex is definitely coming, but he hasn't arrived quite yet. I rate Alex Browne very very highly and think he will become an important part of the Bombers defence and a viable fantasy selection...In a few years.

I definitely wouldn't suggest picking Browne in 2013 though. He will always be battling for selection. The Bombers have drafted 3 more players that can play his role this year, adding to what was already a fairly crowded position on the Essendon team.

Eventually I think Browne will break out, he is a good user of the ball and likes to use run and pace to get the ball out of the backline. A perfect recipe for SuperCoach. I could see him becoming a similar player to Atley in the coming seasons, before developing into something more. Don't be surprised if he averages 100 one day.

There isn't any doubt about his talent but with so many small defenders at the club now I'm wondering if he'll get the opportunities he needs to continue development or if the extra competition will inspire him to take his game to a whole new level. I'll definitely be keeping a very close eye on him.

No. Not yet. You'd be mad to pick him this season I think. He's still a ways off.

Prediction: +9 65

[AFEV]

#22 Jake Carlisle

	2012	Career
Average:	63.28	63.44
Games:	18	27
Centuries:	1	1
Century %:	5.6%	3.7%
High Score:	104	104
Low Score:	23	23
Standard Dev:	19.64	18.99
Starting Price:	353,700	N/A
High Price:	353,700	N/A
Low Price:	305,000	N/A
Fanplanner:	336,200	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Bombers		Defence		#24 ND '09		198cm		92kg		21

I love Jake Carlisle as much as any other fan but I wouldn't advise any person with plans to do well in SuperCoach for 2013 to pick him up. It might be viable in XVs, defenders are hard to come by and Jake is young and has really good JS, but not SC.

As he continues to develop he will be taking the #1 forward more and more often and was we all know shut down defenders tend not to be the greatest scorers. There are always some exceptions but I don't think that Jake is going to be one of them in this scenario.

If you're still not convinced, Jake has had a slightly interrupted pre-season with an ankle injury preventing him from training with the main group for the beginning of the Summer. I really can't see a reason to pick him, despite his set of hands being great he isn't the kind of defender that will ever rack up the ball so will never be a great fantasy player. There are so many better options in his price range I'm not even going to bother listing them all!

Absolutely not. I can't see any real reason to.

Prediction: +2 65

[AFEV]

#32 Travis Colyer

	2012	Career
Average:	49.33	56.31
Games:	6	27
Centuries:	0	1
Century %:	0%	3.7%
High Score:	77	113
Low Score:	6	6
Standard Dev:	29.02	24.91
Starting Price:	254,800	N/A
High Price:	266,500	N/A
Low Price:	213,700	N/A
Fanplanner:	261,900	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Football Club		Midfield		#26 ND '09		174cm		72kg		21

After a very promising debut season Travis Colyer has fallen off badly. After he showed so much early on, the pocket rocket has battled injuries and unfortunately forgotten how to kick and run at the same time effectively making his pace useless.

Travis still has a large scope for improvement, lots of players in the league have improved their kicking out of sight while at an AFL club (namely his captain) and if he can just fix that he still has the potential to be elite. He has a lot of work to do though, and I doubt it will be an overnight fix so I wouldn't be jumping on for SC 2013.

He would be a decent target for XVs, but I'd be careful. At the moment taking him would be very risky as his career could still very much go either way.

I think the target for Colyer this year might be to play 22 games with maybe a dozen in the seniors. Hopefully in this situation it's a case of one step backwards one step forward.

Honestly even if VS gave us a dozen midfield picks I doubt I'd take a serious look at him this year.

Prediction: +11 60

[AFEV]

#12 Stewart Crameri

                                                                                                                                                                                       ^{Crameri on the right.}

	2012	Career
Average:	78.39	78.78
Games:	18	41
Centuries:	6	13
Century %:	33.3%	31.7%
High Score:	131	131
Low Score:	31	31
Standard Dev:	29.71	27.27
Starting Price:	449,700	N/A
High Price:	508,700	N/A
Low Price:	293,100	N/A
Fanplanner:	417,000	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Bombers		Forward		Rookie listed		186cm		96kg		24

Usually an SD of 29.71 and a sub 80 average is enough for me to shut the door on a player, but I don't think Crameri is quite as open and close as that in 2013.

He averaged close to 90 in the first 9 rounds, including a 46 against Collingwood where he was double teamed all day and was physically spent after a gruelling contest just 4 days earlier.

After this injuries and a team form slump meant Crameri couldn't keep this impressive scoring rate going for the entire season and ended the season with 6 sub 70 scores.

The bottom line is, when Essendon is up and about - So is Crameri. So picking Crameri is more like betting on Essendon than it is Stewart in 2013. Of course not many people have faith in the Bombers looking forward, so Crameri will likely go well under the radar. If you do pick him up he could prove a valuable POD and average anywhere from 90-100 in my opinion.

Durability is somewhat of a worry, his style of game does result in a lot of injuries and with the Bombers injury curse I doubt that Crameri will be playing the full 22 any time soon.

For XVs he would be a top notch long term forward to have. At 24 he is still young so having a guy capable of averaging 90 around for the next 5-6 (maybe more) seasons is obviously going to bolster the forward line significantly.

I really like the look of Crameri in 2013 and think he is worth considering. That being said the bottom line is he is inconsistent with some injury history and relies on an equally inconsistent team to score well.

Probably not for me. But I value consistency above an extra say 5 PPG.

Prediction: +12 90

[AFEV]

#6 Joe Daniher

Statistical Overview

DOB: 04/03/94
Height: 201cm
Weight: 90kg

Recruited from Calder Cannons
Recruited at: ND #10

Role: Tall forward/part time ruckman
Likelihood of game time: Well above average
Estimated 2013 games: 15-17
Scoring potential: 65-75 PPG

Fanplanner price: 139,200



Summary

Joe Daniher is looking like he will be one of the most picked players in 2013 at the moment. With the arrival of Daniher there are talks or releasing Hurley down back and with the ever-injured Gumbleton his main competition, Joe could get quite a bit of seniors game time in 2013.

The loss of R/F DPP is a massive blow, everyone was expecting him to get the MPP which pretty much had him locked in to make the link with NicNat or one of the other 14 R/F DPPs that will appear in SC for 2013. I still think that he's one of the surest forward rookies for 2013, and will appear in most real sides. There isn't really a big question mark over his head at this point, unless being at Essendon brings back the injury woes he had a few years ago - but that's really grabbing at straws.



Verdict

Unless something major changes he will be in my team and he should be in yours.

[AFEV]

#29 Alwyn Davey

	2012	Career
Average:	62.6	66.3
Games:	17	101
Centuries:	0	5
Century %:	0%	4.95%
High Score:	96	110
Low Score:	7	7
Standard Dev:	24.6	24.2
Starting Price:	305,700	N/A
High Price:	344,900	N/A
Low Price:	267,000	N/A
Fanplanner:	332,500	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Bombers		Forward		#36 ND '06		173cm		72kg		28

If you're thinking about picking up a 28 y.o fringe forward with a poor scoring history for 300k I think it's about time you gave up the game. This is one of the easiest decisions I'll be making this off-season - NO. There was a time when Davey was a half decent player but those days are gone and as he continues to age expect him to get locked into the poor scoring small forward role more and more.

I don't think he really has that much to offer for you XVs blokes either, you'd probably be better off with some kid that might turn into something bigger. He does provide some depth but what use is depth when the scores are so bad you would probably be better playing a midfielder OOP or something.

I do quite like Froggy as a player and he will continue to play while we search for a younger small forward. We haven't elevated Dell'Olio so I doubt he's our succession plan and O'Brien will likely develop into a midfielder so the spot still needs to be filled and Davey will be the man for now.

Haha. No.

Prediction: -12 50

[AFEV]

#27 Luke Davis

	2012	Career
Average:	N/A	N/A
Games:	0	0
Centuries:	N/A	N/A
Century %:	N/A	N/A
High Score:	N/A	N/A
Low Score:	N/A	N/A
Standard Dev:	N/A	N/A
Starting Price:	100,200	N/A
High Price:	100,200	N/A
Low Price:	100,200	N/A
Fanplanner:	100,200	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Bombers		Def/Mid		#64 ND '10		190cm		92kg		19 (20 @ R1)

I'm just realising this probably should have been a rookie profile given he is yet to debut. Oh well. Luke Davis had a good pre-season in 2011-12 and was being groomed to start playing some tagging roles in the seniors before being struck down by an ankle injury which kept him out of the action for most of the year.

In 2013 he is somewhat of an unknown quantity. At his basement price and having maintained his D positioning he could represent some value if he can get himself into the R1 team. Whether he can do this I must be honest I don't know. If he can continue to develop as a tagger and keep his body right there is definitely a spot for him in the team. Hocking is naturally an attacking player and using him in a defensive role hurts his game and the team. Releasing him (if he plays) will have to be a priority for the Bombers and Davis is the best man for the job as things stand.

If he gets his body right he could definitely get on the park a few times this season, but his JS will be shaky and I'd definitely be wary.

Any basement price player that gets named round 1 will be considered.

Prediction: +55 55

[AFEV]

#47 Cory Dell'Olio

	2012	Career
Average:	38.88	38.88
Games:	8	8
Centuries:	0	0
Century %:	0%	0%
High Score:	68	68
Low Score:	24	24
Standard Dev:	15.18	15.18
Starting Price:	94,700	N/A
High Price:	197,600	N/A
Low Price:	94,700	N/A
Fanplanner:	206,600	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Bombers		Forward		#29 RD '11		175cm		81kg		23

After being elevated onto the senior list in 2012 to cover LTIs, Corey Dell'Olio proceeded to prove why crumbing forwards don't make for good fantasy players. Additionally, Essendon elected not to elevate him onto the senior list permanently this off-season so it is likely that his game time will be limited if he does in fact get any at all.

Essendon is in dire need of a genuine crumbing forward, and although Corey did show some signs in 2012 the fact that he was not promoted is somewhat worrying. For XVs I would be very wary of brining Corey into the team. While he is young his role will never allow him to become a great fantasy player and I really can't see him as the type of player that will change position and start racking up the points.
He doesn't have great job security either and I wonder if his spot on the list is under threat let alone his spot in the team.

You would probably be better off with Froggy. Absolutely not.

No prediction...Not sure he'll even play. :-\

[AFEV]

#15 Courtenay Dempsey

	2012	Career
Average:	78.2	73.7
Games:	20	74
Centuries:	4	10
Century %:	20.00%	14.08%
High Score:	139	139
Low Score:	6	6
Standard Dev:	28.5	28.2
Starting Price:	273,800	N/A
High Price:	423,200	NA
Low Price:	273,800	N/A
Fanplanner:	415,400	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Bombers		Defence		#19 ND '05		185cm		80kg		25

There is no doubt that Courtenay Dempsey has immense talent as a footballer, but so far the stars just haven't lined up for him and he has failed to become a legitimate fantasy options. Each year I see a few brave souls that pick him up in hope that he can finally break the shackles and become the player he has promised he would for so long...And each year I see him cost them a few trades and a lot of points.

His durability is a serious concern, he has never played more than 20 games in a season and since his debut has played 5 games or less in 50% of seasons. He also has consistency issues and is susceptible to tagging. On top of all this Essendon has introduced a rather large group of young small defenders to the club. Whether this ends up being a positive for Dempsey is yet to be seen. For a long time I have been wanting Dempsey to push up the ground and have felt releasing him on a wing would finally coax that breakout out of him - But there was never anyone to replace him down back.
Now there is. Now there are LOTS of people to replace him down back.

I have a sneaking suspicion that he'll finally get pushed up the ground this year, and if he does it will surely increase his output in 2013. Of course that does make him a somewhat risky pick for XVs, he has durability issues and is at risk of becoming a midfielder. Of course I could be way off thinking he will move up, and even if he does he remains a good chance to retain his D positioning.

Overall I think that while Dempsey could finally be ready to become a viable pick, his history of breakout teases is going to keep me (and probably several other coaches) away from him in 2013.

I will keep my eye on him though, I think he's a very interesting player.

I just...can't bring myself to.

Prediction: +12 90

[AFEV]

#31 Dustin Fletcher

	2012	Career
Average:	82.0	93.2
Games:	18	365
Centuries:	4	55
Century %:	22.2%	36.9%
High Score:	110	181
Low Score:	16	9
Standard Dev:	22.3	30.0
Starting Price:	427,400	N/A
High Price:	442,400	N/A
Low Price:	370,900	N/A
Fanplanner:	435,600	N/A

Club		Position		Drafted		Height		Weight		Age
Essendon Bombers		Defence		#3 Pre-Draft '92		198cm		92kg		37

While Dustin Fletcher remains the most important part of Essendon's backline and one of my favourite players, I'm quite certain his days as a fantasy player are over.
While he is still playing brilliant football, he was down in every key fantasy stat in 2011/12 and at his age the likelihood of a breakout is...low.

Due to his immense influence on games he will still remain a decent scorer for this season, and would prove a nice stop gap D3/4 in SOME XVs.

His durability is a concern for those with him in XVs though, in his 20 seasons he has played 20 games or more just 5 times, I suspect it would be even less should you not count finals matches as well. He will remain one of my favourite players until he retires and probably long after, but as much as I love him I can't deny he is no longer a viable fantasy option. There isn't really another way to put that.

Not for me in 2013.

Prediction: +0 82

[AFEV]

#35 Martin Gleeson

Statistical Overview

DOB: 25/08/94
Height: 186cm
Weight: 69kg

Recruited from North Ballarat
Recruited at: ND #53

Role: Rebounding defender/Wingman
Likelihood of game time: Well below average
Estimated 2013 games: 0-3
Scoring potential: 40-50 PPG

Fanplanner price: 94,200



Summary

69kg. That is all you need to know when looking into Gleeson for 2013. He is just a baby and he won't be ready for AFL footy for quite some time. I'd be extremely surprised to see him play senior footy in 2013. Even if injuries strike Essendon has plenty of depth for HBFers. Jason Ashby plays a similar role to him and is far more AFL ready with an extra 8 or 9 kilos on Gleeson.

In a few more seasons he could still well be basement price and at that stage I'd say he might be a viable rookie option. But for 2013 he is definitely a no go and will burn anybody who picks him up from round 1.



Verdict

I really wouldn't. There are a lot of players that will get more opportunities this year.