an FF members look at the Melbourne Cup

[tbagrocks]

                                                2012 Melbourne Cup

It's here the race that stops the nation, but where are all the locals :o The Europians have taken over but just who are the contenders, well I will attempt to dissect the field.

I am tbag and I was once an apprentice jockey to Mark Kavanagh down at Mt Gambier before his Melbourne raid, aslo rode for Adelaide's Len Smith and rode track work for his 1997 Melbourne Cup 3rd place getter Skybeau :o Yep! True! So I'm here to try get FF the winner and placings for the great race!

Also I sit top of the FF league and in the top 1000 in Star Stable ;D

A Horse or "H" is a Stallion 4yrs or older, a Gelding or "g" is any a male horse with no nuts! a Mare or "M" is a female horse 4yrs or older, a Colt is a male under 4 with balls, a filly is a female under 4yrs old. 34:10-9-7 is the starts:wins-seconds-thirds

Race 7, the Melbourne Cup 3200m Hcp Group 1
1. Dunaden 7yr H 34:10-9-7, Champion and last years winner still unbeaten in Oz, romped to win the Caulfield cup and though has a massive weight of 59kg, is still the one to beat!

2. American 8yr H 33:11-4-4, the 2010 winner raced here during the Aurumn and beaten by Manighar every race at WFA level, but he comes into the race as favorite and has less weight than last year, will finish in the top 5 I guarentee, has a big shot at winning.

3. Jakkalbury 7yr H 25:10-2-3, who? Ran in last years Caulfield Cup and flopped, has had many races since and won a few but not on my radar.

4. Red Cadeaux 7yr g 30:6-8-5, not the record of the top three but ran second last year! Looks very consistant but just doesn't win many races.

5. Winchester 8yr H 26:6-6-3, far striched as to how he even got a run ($$$ I'm asuming), well he has done nothing in Oz in four starts and this will continue.

6. Voila Ici 8yr H 32:8-6-5, looked promising when 2nd in the Underwood, flopped the Caulfield Cup and hasn't raced passed the 2400m, but Moody is a genius!

7. Cavalryman 7yr H 27:6-4-3, Who? In good form but never raced in Oz, average record and would be a suprise winner.

8. Mount Athos 6yr g 20:7-0-1, Has been a long time cup favorite and this showers me as he hasn't raced in Oz. Has won his last three easily and at the age of 6 looks the prime horse, not sure why trainers think they can land at Flemington on that tuesday and win but this is the horse to do it, at least have him in your multi bets.

9. Sangas 7yr g 15:7-1-0, German who came here with a great record but in four starts hasn't gotten better than a 6th, proof it is harder than the Europians think to beat our best!

10. Ethiopia 4yr g 7:1-1-2, won the Derby in Sydney and one of two Oz bread horses in the cup :-\ Is a fascinating galloper who ran fourth in the Cox Plate and may thribe at the distance, lets all hope he does Australia Proud, I expect a top 8 finish!

11. Fiorente 5yr H 9:2-3-0, First run in Oz but has Gai's eye on him, has beaten Red Cadeaux and has to be some chance, really hard to gauge any form here!

12. Galileo's Choice 7yr g 16:8-4-1, from Ireland with a great record, again how the fridge are the Australian punters supposed to dissect all these never raced in Oz forms to back a winner? :-\ Advantage the bookies. To many Europians and our Government has let us as a nation down badly here!

13. Glencadam Gold 5yr g 13:6-2-1, At least we have seen this international race! And race well, was the Caulfield Cup fav after he romped the Metro and that second place "Kelinni" just won nicely, the Metro form has never been great for the cup but he did win very, very easily, and big odds now!

14. Green Moon 6yr H 19:6-3-0, Ran 2nd last years Caulfield Cup and although flopped in the recent Cox Plate has been a major Cup contender for a while, nice odds and right in the race, with 53.5kg

15.Maluckyday 6yr g 17:5-3-2, Local and 2nd in 2010, racing well and with no Alcopop for some strange reason :-\ lets all cheer this guy on!

16. Mourayan 7yr H 32:4-8-5, going great guns in Sydney and had some great form last spring only to be scratched from this race, with his record at top level would have to be some sort of silly E/W chance.

17. My Quest For Peace 5yr H 12:5-1-2, 5th in the Caulfield and come to Oz with great winning form, light weight and can challange

18. Niwot 8yr g 32:9-4-1, ok when 8th last year and then won the Sydney cup 3200m, but in poor form atm

19. Tac De Boistron 6yr g 27:5-2-2, Frenchy and 6th in a slow paced Geelong cup, hard to judge but light weight and has won big in Europe

20. Lights Of Heaven 5yr M 18:6-3-3, Trained by Moody and won the big races in Queesland, 3rd in Caulfield Cup and has to be a chance
21. Precedence 7yr g 44:7-5-1, probably only gets a run with the "Bart" factor but no chance again

22. Unusual Suspect 9yr H 68:9-8-6, some owners don't know when to give up!

23. Zabeelionaire 4yr H 17:3-1-0, SA Derby winner really hasn't done much else

24. Kelinni 5yr g 18:8-3-3, made a statement in the Lexus Saturday and at 51kg has an outside chance

So there's the field, full of Internationals of some who have never been south of the equater, well here's my lowdown

1. Dunaden, can go back to back and is still unbeaten in Australia
2. American, consistant as any and a former winner
3. Red Cadeaux, 2nd last year and hasn't been unplaced since!
4. Ethiopia, looks a real star for the furure of Australian racing
5. Maluckyday, the best local left and should challange
6. Lights of Heaven, the star mare and Moody/Nolan combo, I think Peter has set her for this race!
the roughy
Kelinni, won nicely on Saturday, lightweight and has the Boss on him

So hope that helps my fellow ff members and good luck!

here's all the work I've done on the spring racing carnival so far
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,66639.0.html

[Jukes]

11, 4, 7 is my trifecta of random numbers.

[JBs-Hawks]

So who should I put my trifectas on tbag?

[c4v3m4n]

No love for Mt Athos tbag?

[Ziplock]

you must be very short tbag...

[tbagrocks]

you must be very short tbag...

I do ok, it's my attention span that's the shortest  :P couldn't resist eh Zippy ;D Well I've ridden more excitement than you will ever know inside your chemical walls :-X

[tbagrocks]

Yeah no love for Mount Athos, it's extreamly cocky to come here and win a Cup from one start, well I don't buy it and there are some terrific horses that have proven themselves down under

One thing that displeases me is Manighar not running, he dominated Americain in the Autumn, where did he go :-\

You will find Dunaden, Red Cadeaux and Americain will be the better horses come tuesday!

[Mailman the 2nd]

I always just pick the one with the funny name, so I'lll go Galileo's Choice

[Nige]

Every year since I was like 11, I've had a way of picking three horses. Kinda like a set of criteria.

1. Always pick 6 (day of birth)
2. Always pick at least on favourite
3. Pick the final one based on either name or colours.

Doesn't always work, but it's a bit of fun. And since I never have money, Mum pays... :P

This year I'm picking Voila Ici, Dunaden and My Quest For Peace.

[Windigo]

Just keep in mind that at Flemington on Saturday only two favorites won all day.

[Hawka]

Picked Dunaden for the Caulfield cup and it is a fantastic horse so thats where most of my money will be
I like Ethiopia and also Niwot so may put a few of them

[kilbluff1985]

i have money on Americain & Dunaden hope Dunaden wins $100 on him @7.50 and $100 on Americain @6.00 if neither win i'm never betting on horses again lol

[Hawka]

Any other good bets in the other races? tbag?
Theres a few that intrest me so far

Race 1 is gonna be so hard to call

[Tominator]

my money is on Dunaden or Americain

[Ringo]

In keeping with my once a year betting tradition will probably do as follows:
Red Cadeaux $5 win
Box Trifecta Red Cadeuax, Ethiopia, and Kelinni
and $5 each way on a longshot this year Cavalryman
Spend $21 (last of the big spenders I know but that is my budget)
Over the years have probably come out in front slightly with this strategy.