Tominator's Top 22 - NAB AFL Draft First Round Predictions

[Tominator]

Here is the Top 23 given the draft order now (the thread says 22 but there are 23 picks in the first round), I'll do as best I can given I know some players a lot more than others...

Anyway, here goes. Hope you get something out of this!


Pick 1 - Greater Western Sydney - Lachie Whitfield (VIC Country) - midfielder, 184cm, 77kg



Gun midfielder who racked up the possessions at the U18s, he is a gut-running goal-kicking ball magnet. The best junior in the country and a certainty to move into Breakfast Point, given GWS now have the Top 3 picks. Honours include MVP for VIC Country at the U18s, the Larke Medal for best Div 1 player at the U18s, and dual All-Australian honours. Still needs a bit more muscle but his endurance is at elite status (his PB in the beep test is 16.4).

Plays like: Scott Pendlebury




Pick 2 - Greater Western Sydney - Jimmy Toumpas (SA) - midfielder/defender, 182cm, 78kg



SA State Captain and had played the U18s with hip issues. Had hip surgery so was not at the NAB Draft Combine, but is a damaging midfielder who can play off half-back too. The late mail is that O'Rourke will go at Pick 2, but if it was on talent alone then Toumpas deserves to be the 2nd pick in the draft. A St Michael's College graduate, he plays for WWT Eagles in the SANFL and produced a game-changing performance in last year's SANFL Grand Final. Ready-made AFL player and most people know that - whether Stephen Silvagni and his GWS recruiting team see him that way remains to be seen.

Plays like: Brett Deledio, Bryce Gibbs




Pick 3 - Greater Western Sydney - Lachie Plowman (VIC Metro) - defender, 192cm, 85kg



Running defender who is big enough to take a KPP but also can give some drive off half-back. Was injured during the U18 Champs with a dislocated elbow so I haven't seen much of him, but he reads the play well and is happy to be the general of the backline, much like Sam Fisher and Andrew Mackie. GWS picked up plenty of budding young forwards and midfielders,  but defence is an area of weakness so Plowman will fill that void very well. But I'm still flabbergasted Brodie Grundy is unlikely to go Top 3.

Plays like: Andrew Mackie




Pick 4 - Melbourne - Ollie Wines (VIC Country) - midfielder, 188cm, 90kg



The complete midfielder. A Dustin Martin-type who is a strong marker and pushes forward to kick goals. He has an elite endurance base, is hard at it around the stoppages, a ferocious tackler and is already physically developed to the point where he will be capable of playing plenty of senior footy in his first year in the AFL. He won All Australian honours after averaging 24 possessions in four games for Vic Country - very good at DT might I add - and was named in the Pioneers' best players in nine of his 10 games in the TAC Cup this year. Best mates with Jack Viney and the two will play Round 1 next year for sure.

Plays like: Dustin Martin, Colin Sylvia




Pick 5 - Western Bulldogs - Jonathon O'Rourke (VIC Metro) - midfielder, 184cm, 73kg



An endurance jet, he is the ideal wingman who can play off half-back and half-forward too. Is good enough to be Top 3 but doesn't fit GWS' or Melbourne's need as he is an outside midfielder. Instrumental for VIC Metro in this years U18s but will need a bit more muscle to his frame before he is ready for AFL. Number of clubs are very interested after some good performances at the U18 Champs and also the draft Combine, but the Dogs need some class so if Plowman goes at Pick 3 then the Dogs will take this guy at 5 or 6.

Plays like: Andrew Gaff




Pick 6 - Western Bulldogs - Troy Menzel (SA) - forward, 187cm, 78kg



Brother of Geelong's Daniel and dominated the opening two games of the U18s (kicked bags of 9 and 6). Has already had the LARS knee reconstruction but that was in a collision, although this may worry clubs as they do not want a potentially injury prone player, and some people have drawn comparisons between the two Menzels. If he can stay fit, he will be one of the best mid-sized forwards in years to come. May very well go at Pick 3, especially given that his knee has been given the all clear by renowned sports physios at the recent Draft Combine (despite not doing any testing due to a PCL injury). If Plowman goes at 3, then Menzel could go at 6 and Grundy at 7, which might leave Mayes at 9, but we won't know til Draft Day.

Plays like: Steve Johnson




Pick 7 - Port Adelaide - Brodie Grundy (SA) - ruckman, 202cm, 100kg



Rightfully touted as the best young ruckman in the country, he is already playing in the SANFL at my club Sturt and dominated the hitouts at the U18 games. Recently played in the SANFL U18 Grand Final and was the most influential player on the ground. GWS need another ruckman, and with Brogan gone and Giles' departure imminent, Grundy should be a Giant in more ways than one next year. But that now appears unlikely. Until recently it appeared certain he was the third pick for the Giants, but with increased recent interest in Jonathon O'Rourke, Troy Menzel and especially Lachie Plowman, he could find himself at Port Adelaide at Pick 7. GWS could really regret passing him up, but its growing more and more likely by the day that they will. DT-wise he is the next Zac Smith and Jon Giles; R3 lock which ever club he lands at.

Plays like: Dean Cox




Pick 8 - Brisbane Lions - Kristian Jaksch (VIC Metro) - forward, 194cm, 83kg



Jaksch is the domino of this draft. If the Bulldogs take him at 6 or the Lions take him at 8, it will change the draft order massively. It has already changed this phantom draft, as it has whacked several players out of order. If he does not go at 6 or 8 then he could slip to the Dogs again at Pick 21 (where I had him originally), although Carlton will most likely take him at 11 if still available.

Very promising key forward/defender who is widely tipped to go early second round or late first round. Formed a strong combination with Thomas Boyd at the U18s, and in the last game against WA, Joe Daniher. These three were pivotal in VIC Metro's title win. One of five Carey Grammar students likely to go in the Top 30, Jaksch can take a strong mark, even though his action is somewhat-awkward. Took 28 marks in the 5 games, and kicked 6 goals against Tasmania. Had him at Pick 22 initially but Brisbane are now extremely keen to get their hands on him so they'll take him at Pick 8 if available.

Plays like: Michael Hurley




Pick 9 - Richmond - Nick Vlastuin (VIC Metro) - midfielder/defender, 187cm, 86kg



Strong-bodied midfielder/defended who has soared up the draft order. Played very well at the back end of the Champs and was captain of the winning team VIC Metro. Not the quickest guy out there but loves a contest, brings strong leadership, is courageous and fearless and has good disposal by hand and foot. Will be a good fit at North Melbourne as he personifies the Shinboner Spirit, and adds a hard edge to their backline, but he has soared up draft calculations and could land at Richmond at Pick 9. Earned All-Australian selection at the U18s.

Plays like: Steve Morris; Corey Enright




Pick 10 - Essendon - Joe Daniher (VIC Metro) - Father-Son Selection - forward/ruckman, 201cm, 89kg



Already snaffled up by Essendon as a Father-Son player, this guy is a key forward who at 201cm is more than handy in the ruck. Will be the next Daniher to dominate the AFL and may get DPP status as a RUC/FWD. Does need to work on his kicking, which is a bit wayward at times (he kicked 4.6 against WA) but can tear a game apart and is extremely agile for his size. Lock wherever he is positioned.

Plays like: Kurt Tippett




Pick 11 - Carlton - Sam Mayes (SA) - midfielder/forward, 187cm, 78kg



A unique player in that he is a tall midfielder but a skinny key forward at the same time. An ideal half-forward flank player, he played consistently well for North Adelaide in the SANFL and earned All Australian honours as an underage player in the U18s last year. Form dropped off this year at the U18s but is still a jet. Port or Brisbane may pounce prior, as both are very interested, but if they don't then Richmond are likely to take Vlastuin, which would leave Carlton with a gem.

Plays like: Ryan Griffen, Dale Thomas




Pick 12 - Greater Western Sydney - Jackson Macrae (VIC Metro) - midfielder, 189cm, 76kg



Macrae is a running machine who plays on the wing and was a vital link man for VIC Metro during the Champs. Reads the play better than most players I have ever seen, and he is a very classy user of the ball. Recently racked up 44 possessions in an APS game for Carey Grammar, and kicked the golden point for Oakleigh Chargers which crowned them TAC Cup premiers. Also got BOG in that game. Needs more muscle but his endurance is elite and is definitely good enough for Top 10, but a lot depends on GWS' third pick and when Jaksch gets taken.

Plays like: Nick Dal Santo




Pick 13 - Gold Coast Suns - Tom Clurey (VIC Country) - defender, 193cm, 85kg



The ideal modern-day key defender, like Plowman, Clurey sets up attacks off half-back but can also play a shutdown role on the main forward, as he did on numerous occasions at both the NAB U18 Championships and in the TAC Cup. A real blue-collar footballer, he has leadership qualities - which clubs love - and he excelled at the Draft Combine, scoring 15.1 in the Beep Test (highest score) and kicked 4.1 in the Brad Johnson kicking test. Hawthorn and St Kilda are two clubs that would love to get their hands on him, but Gold Coast need to shore up their defence - which was exposed after Nathan Bock's broken leg - so they'll be hoping Clurey slips to Pick 13. But the unpredictability of this draft means that Kennedy or Stringer are possible selections here too, or Garlett if they are willing to take a risk.

Plays like: Sam Fisher




Pick 14 - Greater Western Sydney - Ben Kennedy (SA) - midfielder/forward, 174cm, 74kg



Small midfielder-forward who must be very good at tongue-kissing the ladies, as he always has his tongue out when he gets the ball... Played SANFL with Glenelg; another star of the future. Product of the prestigious Sacred Heart College, he may be small but he can tear a game apart, especially with his booming left foot kick. Put on a clinic against VIC Country and was prominent against WA too. Fingers crossed he gets homesick and wants to come back to the Crows!!!

Plays like: Luke Dahlhaus




Pick 15 - North Melbourne - Nathan Hrovat (VIC Metro) - midfielder, 175cm, 79kg



I like this kid a lot. Originally I didn't have him in my Top 20 but he has really made a name for himself this season so he could be a bolter. Been a huge year for the Northern Knights captain. He won the VIC Metro MVP as well as All-Australian honours and is a tough strong-bodied midfielder who wins a lot of contested ball, and his draft stocks have risen a heck of a lot this year. Came third in the Morrish Medal for best TAC Cup player, and equal third in the clean hands marking test at the recent combine. Another Carey Grammar boy, he is a clearance specialist who is a very popular, well-liked player amongst his teammates. Has worked with Brent Harvey a lot this year so if Vlastuin goes to the Tigers or Blues then Hrovat will be a Roo.

Plays like: Toby Greene, Sam Mitchell




Pick 16 - Geelong Cats - Jake Stringer (VIC Country) - forward, 191cm, 94kg



One of the best forwards in the country, Stringer had a great performance at the Combine which is sure to boost his stocks. Got top of the class in the clean hands marking test, and also got a perfect score in the goalkicking test. Kicked bags of 9 and 10 in the TAC Cup for Bendigo and will play AFL very early next year. Many recruiters are worried by a horrific broken leg he suffered last year, and he has never returned to his great heights of before the injury. I initially had him at Pick 5 but many people are very worried about how he has recovered from his leg injury after his performance at the Draft Combine, with Geelong apparently being one of the only clubs prepared to take a punt on him. Time will tell how good a player he will become, but the general consensus is he'll get picked after 10 and before 20.

Plays like: Matthew Pavlich




Pick 17 - Fremantle - Mason Shaw (WA) - forward, 198cm, 92kg



One of the best key forwards in the country, Shaw's draft stocks have also risen this season after a strong showing at the U18 Champs. Big bad and bustling, he can take a strong pack mark and is widely tipped to go late first round. Kicked 35 goals in 9 games for South Fremantle, and senior WAFL experience has so far helped his development. Given Freo missed out on Cloke, Gumbleton and Dawes, this guy is not a bad consolation prize, and could be their hope for life after Pavlich.

Plays like: Travis Cloke




Pick 18 - Collingwood - Dayle Garlett (WA) - midfielder, 180cm, 75kg



WA's best draft-eligible player of the carnival by a country mile. With blistering pace and great poise, he dominated the U18s in a relatively-ordinary side and got All Australian honours deservedly. Was kicked out of the AIS-AFL Academy early this year, so clubs will wanna watch his off-field antics, but has plenty of upside. A real confidence player, he played with Swan Districts in the WAFL, but his off-field antics have seen him slide down the draft order, with many clubs worried about picking him. But with Collingwood having three consecutive first-round picks, he may be worth the punt.

Plays like: Harley Bennell




Pick 19 - Collingwood - Tim Membrey (VIC Country) - forward, 189cm, 88kg



Big key forward who was the captain of the Gippsland Power and kicked 4 goals in the TAC Cup Grand Final. Some clubs may see him as a higher value than Pick 19, but such is the strength of this draft, he could go anywhere from Pick 10 to Pick 25. Hard one to call, but has the size and strength ready to play AFL next year. Has a big tattoo on his arm so that might appeal to Collingwood  ;D

Plays like: Jack Darling




Pick 20 - Collingwood - Josh Simpson (WA) - midfielder/forward, 184cm, 73kg



This guy is the second coming of Lewis Jetta. A hard-running, pacy wingman, who loves to go forward and kick a goal, he played for SA at the U16s in 2010, and the U18s in 2011, before leaving his scholarship at Rostrevor College in Adelaide and returning to WA to be back with his family. Capable of a big mark, he can add plenty of outside pace and will be an excitement machine in the years to come. GWS may take him at Pick 12 or 14, but may opt for Garlett instead, as both are very similar players. Wouldn't surprise me if North or Geelong get him at Picks 15 or 16, but if not then Freo need a KPP (and they'll take Mason Shaw) so that will leave Collingwood to pounce. Wouldn't mind if the Crows got him at Pick 20 though

Plays like: Lewis Jetta




Pick 21 - Western Bulldogs - Taylor Garner (VIC Country) - midfielder/forward, 187cm, 78kg



Nat Fyfe-type forward/midfielder who can run all day, and has a ferocious attack on the footy. Can tear a game apart with both his attacking and defensive pressure, and has been a draft bolter of late. Dogs will love it if he is available at Pick 21, but there is a chance that GWS, Gold Coast or Collingwood may swoop prior. Had his shoulder dislocated four times in four matches for VIC Country, but still managed to crack the All Australian team. If he can keep his shoulder out of harm's way, he will become a very good player.

Plays like: Nat Fyfe




Pick 22 - Sydney - Nick Graham (VIC Country) - midfielder, 183cm, 79kg



This Gippsland Power product is a strong-bodied player who won the Morrish Medal for best player in the TAC Cup by one vote. Unheralded as yet, he could be a draft bolter after his massive year where he won the Morrish Medal and represented VIC Country. Averaged 25 possessions and 6 tackles per game across the whole season. Took the Gippsland Power to the Grand Final, where they lost by 1 point thanks to Jackson Macrae, and was unlucky not to get the Best on Ground Medal. Named in the TAC Cup Team of the Year on a half-forward flank.

Plays like: Jude Bolton, Luke Parker






So that's the first round, but here is one more player who I reckon is worthwhile writing up about


Pick 26 - Melbourne - Jack Viney (VIC Metro) - Father-Son Selection - midfielder, 178cm, 82kg



Like Daniher, he has already been taken by Melbourne as an F/S pick. Tough and hard, he loves the contested footy and attacks it like a bull at a gate. Not afraid to make his opinions known, saying "if I wasn't physical, I'd be playing soccer or something". Got the MVP player at the U16 Carnival for SA and continued this good form for VIC Metro in the U18s, earning All-Australian honours. Also played a few games for Casey Scorpions in the VFL, one of which he suffered a broken jaw in thanks to David Wojcinski. Been taken at Pick 26 so will be very cheap and will be very tempting to jump on, given he will play senior footy straight away.

And what school does he go to? You guessed it... Carey Grammar

Plays like: Josh Caddy, Scott Thompson




Others to watch:

Jesse Longergan (TAS)
Jackson Thurlow (TAS)
Tim Broomhead (SA)
Tim O'Brien (SA)
Sam Colquhoun (SA)
Tanner Smith (VIC Country)
Mason Wood (VIC Country)
Dean Towers (VIC Country)
Andrew Boston (QLD)
Jordan Bourke (QLD)
Matthew Haynes (VIC Metro)
Jason Pongracic (VIC Metro)
Aidan Corr (VIC Metro)

[Torpedo10]

Lots of choices.  :o

[Tominator]

Thanks must also go to Mr Craig, whose rookie thread helped me out with some of the heights and weights and stuff!


Feel free to comment on anything you want, or any predictions of your own!!

[T Dog]

Pick 17 - Collingwood - Tim Membrey (VIC Country) - forward, 189cm, 88kg
Big key forward who was the captain of the Gippsland Power and kicked 4 goals in the TAC Cup Grand Final. Some clubs may see him as a higher value than Pick 16, but such is the strength of this draft, he could go anywhere from Pick 10 to Pick 25. Hard one to call, but has the size and strength ready to play AFL next year. Has a big tattoo on his arm so that might appeal to Collingwood 

..Lol Big Tom..hope it works out for that reason.. ;D

[BB67th]

Great write up Tom, quality information in there and a really good preview of the first draft round.

[Justin Bieber]

Surely Gartlett will go earlier than that.

Also lol that Josh Caddy is compared to Scott Thompson.

[henry]

Great post mate, really informative. Hawthorn gave pick 21 to the bullies though.

[Tominator]

Surely Gartlett will go earlier than that.

Also lol that Josh Caddy is compared to Scott Thompson.

Haha well I compared Viney to both of them, not Caddy to Thompson  ;)

Caddy and Thompson are similar but have their differences, and Viney is showing flashes of both of them IMO

Not sure about Garlett, I had him in the top 10 but his debacle with the AIS made me reconsider, think he'll be a good fit at GWS though, where did you rate him?

[Cicjose]

Im expecting Fremantle to get Meburey over Shaw

[Mr.Craig]

Good work Tom, thanks for the shout out. :)

I have a differing opinion on the position of a few of those players, Dean Towers is one that has definitely come into top 20 consideration given his results at the Combine. Overall, great job. Once the order is confirmed I'll probably have a crack at doing one of these myself.

[Justin Bieber]

Hey I got a quick question.

Why didn't Melbourne trade pick 4 to the GWS instead of pick 3? And also why didn't they have to use pick 20 or pick 4 to get Viney? But were almost forced with pick 26?

[CrowsFan]

Because they were concession picks lez so they didn't have to.

[kilbluff1985]

Hope Daniher plays better then Tippett. ::)

[Scrads]

Good read Tom, always enjoy these :)

Will be interesting how close you were as the action pans out. There is always at least one bolter and one slider nobody sees coming ;)

[Tominator]

Im expecting Fremantle to get Meburey over Shaw

I had Membrey in there before Shaw but thought Freo would be more likely to take Shaw so they don't have to worry about homesickness or anything... Both are very good players though so could go either way