MY BROWNLOW PREDICTIONS/BETS

[upthemaidens]

 Ok lads, ive just placed my bets on for the Brownlow (theres a few)  :) , so ive decided to share them here and you guys can make what you want of them.
  Firstly though ,here is my 2012 Brownlow count...
    Ablett    27
    Watson  26
    Swan     25 
    Beams    24
    Danger   23
    Deledio   23
    Cotchin   20
    Selwood 20
    Mitchell   20
   Thompson 19
   Kennedy   19
   Boyd        19

Now my Cotching/Deledio count is a grey area  since there were lots of close calls between those two, in alot of situations they could get none,1 or even 2..
Aswell the Swan/Beams count is a similar problem  ,, gettiing into the mind of an umpire :P for a sec. ,Will they be less likely to give votes for last years winner, I can see Beams being handed votes they may have gone Swans way  i.e. Beams gets the 3, Swan the 2  ...  so they are the grey areas for me
  All my bets to come...

   

[upthemaidens]

  OK here are all my bets for this years Brownlow,  some are purely chasing value and others are locks.

Deledio(leader after rd 10)   $3@67 =$201
Stanton(leader after rd 10)  $10@8 =$80

Ablett (winner)     $50@4.75 =$237.5
Ablett (winner)     $10@9     =$90
Swan  (winner)     $10@13   =$130
Thompson(winner)$2@51    =$102
Deledio(winner)    $2@126   =$252
Rockliff(winner)    $1@201   = $201
selwood(winner)  $2@52    =$102

Riewoldt(most team votes) $5@26 =$130
Ward(most team votes)   $10@5.5 =$55
Grimes(most team votes)  $10@17 =$170
Redden(most team votes) $80@3  =$240
Deledio(most team votes) $10@8  =$80
Cox(most team votes)     $8@7.25=$58

Ablett/Swan(quinella)  $20@21 =$420
Ablett/Watson(quin)   $25@7   =$175
Ablett/Beams(quin)    $5@41   =$205
Watson/Swan           $6@29   =$174
Watson/Beams          $4@51   =$204

Shuey(win group vs Redden,Fyfe,Hill,Greene,Adams) $300@2.75 =$825
Redden(win same group as above, a cover bet)        $125@4     =$500

Duffield(win group vs Birch,Scotland,Tayler,Malceski,Lake) $15@26 =$390
Sandilands(win group vs Cox,Nitnac,maric,Jacobs,Goldy)    $10@7  =$70
Thomas D(win group vs Rioli,Bennell,Jetta,Milne,Betts)     $10@11 =$110

Mundy(H2H vs Fyfe)  $200@1.7  =$340
Rockliff(H2H vs Black) $250@1.67=$417.50

  So thats the run down,, now its in the hands of the gambling Gods,, good luck to me..

[Spinking]

Nice one UTM!

Pretty similar to mine except I'm predicting Thompson to finish substantially higher on around 25 votes.

Good luck with the bets anyway!

[upthemaidens]

Nice one UTM!

Pretty similar to mine except I'm predicting Thompson to finish substantially higher on around 25 votes.

Good luck with the bets anyway!

cheers,   What did you have Dangerfield on?

[Spinking]

Nice one UTM!

Pretty similar to mine except I'm predicting Thompson to finish substantially higher on around 25 votes.

Good luck with the bets anyway!

cheers,   What did you have Dangerfield on?

23. Hoping that it plays out like that too. Got a multi with Thomo to be highest scorer at the crows  ;)

[upthemaidens]

Nice one UTM!

Pretty similar to mine except I'm predicting Thompson to finish substantially higher on around 25 votes.

Good luck with the bets anyway!

cheers,   What did you have Dangerfield on?

23. Hoping that it plays out like that too. Got a multi with Thomo to be highest scorer at the crows  ;)

oh well good luck with that..
To be honest its fairly easy to be 5 votes off either way, so try to allow for that.
I dont think i gave Thompson to many BOGs, so that maybe the reason hes alittle low.
  can i ask, what was your cotchin/deledio count?  also Franklin and Sewell? if you have them

[Spinking]

Hawks - I have Mitchell 22, Franklin 14, Sewell 11

Tiges - I have Cotchin 24, Deledio 19, Tuck 15

As you say though, could be off by a bit  ;)

[kilbluff1985]

damn upthemaidens i thought i had heaps of bets on with my 17 bets lol mind you mine only equal $100 spent lol

[stew42]

That Grimes for most team votes bet looks reeeeally good!

[upthemaidens]

damn upthemaidens i thought i had heaps of bets on with my 17 bets lol mind you mine only equal $100 spent lol

Haha  funny thing is i dont have much cash atm, normally i would be betting 4k or so. 

[upthemaidens]

That Grimes for most team votes bet looks reeeeally good!

Yeah  its going to be very low scoring across the board for Demons, So if Grimes can jag 5-6 votes that may be enough to atleast dead heat with Jones. Jones being the likely highest scorer.
  The other bet i love the value off is the Duffield (to win group  Birchell,Scotland,Tayler,Malceski,Lake) at $26 its got to be worth alittle splash.  I dont see Birch or Scot(those 2 being the highest scorers) getting many more than 6-7 in maybe 3-4 games,, So Duffman just needs to jag a few(he does have a possible BOG)

[stew42]

Hmmm, true. I reckon you'll make a profit. Good luck man!

[kilbluff1985]

sent you a PM upthemaidens

[upthemaidens]

sent you a PM upthemaidens

Yep i saw those bets,, umm you would hate Swan to come third  :) . Im not sure about Cotchin, i would also look at some trifectas with beams(they should be quite big odds).  The problem with trifectas(and to a lesser extent quinellas) is if there is a dead heat in any position, the payout gets cut up.

[kilbluff1985]

sent you a PM upthemaidens

Yep i saw those bets,, umm you would hate Swan to come third  :) . Im not sure about Cotchin, i would also look at some trifectas with beams(they should be quite big odds).  The problem with trifectas(and to a lesser extent quinellas) is if there is a dead heat in any position, the payout gets cut up.

lol yeah guess i have to hope if it's a 3rd spot tie for example i have both players in a trifecta so i get both bets to make up for it if that makes sense i dunno betting makes the night a lot more interesting lol otherwise it's kinda boring