2013 MBR's Theory

[Matty411]

After looking at the way each team was allocated a R11, 12 or 13 bye round for 2012 - it got me thinking about 2013...

Looking at the left column below, I'm floating a possible theory that the AFL may go with in 2013 that we will all be very accustomed with come this time next year... I've attached a simple spreadsheet that shows that the following could arise in 2013...

Round 11 could see the following teams synced up: Collingwood, St Kilda, Carlton, Port, Bulldogs and GWS. This would see popular picks like Swan, Beams and Pendles missing the same week as Murphy, Gibbs, Hayes, Boyd and Ebert.

Round 12 could then see these teams sharing a week off: Hawks, Crows, Freo, North, Essendon and Brisbane. This would mean that Buddy, Danger, Thompson, Barlow, Pav, Watson and the RedRockBerger would all be out at the same time.

Finally, Round 13 would have these teams pooled together: Sydney, West Coast, Geelong, Richmond, Melbourne and Gold Coast - which means, JPK, LeCras, Stevie J, Chapman, Jelwood, Cotchin, Martin, Lids and Gablett would all miss the week together.

What do you think? Would this be preferrable to 2012's pools? Do you have any theories on how the AFL will choose the teams and byes?

Discuss.

[Ziplock]

cant remember the specific draw this year, but if I was them I would try to make it so that the following doesn't happen
-2 team states don't have the same bye (so GC/ Brisbane, Port/ Adelaide,  WCE/Freo, Syd/GWS dont share their byes)
-attempt to equally distribute the top 8 over the 3 rounds.

So that's pretty good, but round 12 has too many top 8 out... swap north with giants.

looks solid though, I presume you used roughly the same logic?

[Matty411]

Just used the same model in terms of placings that is: Positions 1, 2, 7, 8, 11 and 13 go to R12, 4, 9, 10, 14, 15 and 18 go to R11 and the rest on R13 - seems to work out okay.

The Same State rule thing is key and I think they should/will try to employ the same tactic. The fact that my theory actually works out perfectly in that regard is just an eerie coincidence. Maybe its a sign that this is actually how they'll work it out?

Tell you one thing though, it'd mean that those wanting to go with 2 x Pies Guns (Swan, Beams etc) plus Murphy would be harder. With this Logic I'd go with the following midfield:

Swan (11), Cotchin (13), Redden (12), Murphy (11) and S. Selwood/G. Ablett (13) then upgrade to Beams/Pendles in R12...

Seems a solid plan to me...

[mx187]

Awesome work Matty411

[Master Q]

Awesome work McRath! This going on DT Talk?

I don't see why they won't follow the same system in 2013!

[Matty411]

Cheers Q - yeah up on DTT now for a full article look at the theory

[Ziplock]

Awesome work McRath! This going on DT Talk?

I don't see why they won't follow the same system in 2013!

I really think they'll move one of the top 8 to round 11, or there won't be enough interest in round 12.

[Spite]

Collingwood and Melbourne will always share the same bye round. I can't remember why but I worked it out during the rnd 12 bye this year. Something to do with the Queens Birthday match I think :/