What Makes a Mid-Pricer Worth It?

[Matty411]

Article to be posted up at dreamteamtalk.com shortly, but for those not onto it yet - here it is to start some discussion.

I’ve been thinking a fair bit lately about mid pricers (haven't we all) given the likely change of focus in AFL Dream Team for 2013. With the risk of subbage and the much lower number of rookies likely to start the season due to having no new footy franchise start-ups, 2013 should see the return of the true mid-price player. With coaches already talking up the inclusions of the likes of Ball, Embley and RiskyTelly in their midfields, I'd like to pose the question - as it does differ depending on your expectations: What makes a mid-pricer worth it?

The answer to this question lies (I think) around what you believe the yardstick is for a 'keeper'. For some, they can rest easy simply knowing that their mid-pricers have made them a bit of cash, scored slightly higher than a rookie with better job security and provided a better platform to upgrade to a premium.

Personally, my interpretation of a successful mid-pricer is one that will play all year and increase their average close to, or equal to that of a premium in their respective position. I've noted a few examples below of what I believe would've been great mid-price options worthy of selection in 2012 - then also a few that just didn't make the grade...

For the purposes of clarity, I’d like to point out my personal definitions for what I’d be happy to be classes as a ‘keeper’ in 2012:

Defender â€" 75 average minimum playing 20 games or higher
Midfielder â€" 95 average minimum playing 20 games or higher
Ruckman â€" 80 average minimum playing 20 games of higher
Forward â€" 80 average minimum playing 20 games of higher

Successful Picks for 2012

Brad Ebert
Club: Port Adelaide
Position: Midfielder
2011 avg: 62.2
2012 avg: 98.7
2012 GP: 22

Ebert came across from West Coast as a promising young player that was to be reunited with his brother and family in SA. He shone brightly in his first year at Port, after costing only $308k in February.

Ivan Maric
Club: Richmond
Position: Ruckman
2011 avg: 59
2012 avg: 97.8
2012 GP: 21

It seems there’s a pattern associated with good mid-price picks. Mature players going to new teams in search of new opportunities appear very likely to flourish (provided they have the talent and drive). This may speak volumes for those considering one Brent Moloney, who’s likely to end up at Port, Sydney or Melbourne in 2013.

Others in the mid-price category who would’ve been ‘keepers’ in 2012 â€" Callan Ward, Brendan Whitecross, Shaun Grigg, Harley Bennell and Clancee Pearce.

Picks that ‘didn’t quite get there’

Mitch Wallis
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfielder
2011 avg: 55
2012 avg: 83
2012 GP: 19

The young Bulldog had a great season by 2nd year standards, rising enough to make a bit of cash and improving on both his games played and average considerably. Unfortunately though, he fell well short of the mark for a midfield keeper. Another year should see him break into the 95-100 region in his all-important third year.

Andrew Gaff
Club: West Coast
Position: Midfielder
2011 avg: 65.3
2012 avg: 86.6
2012 GP: 22

After being held back by constant green/red vests in 2011, Gaff broke out from his ‘Kermit’ nickname to make some big improvements and be one of West Coast’s most consistent players. Whilst he didn’t prove to break out to premium status in his position, I’d expect (like Wallis) that he will do so in 2013. At that awkward a price though… it’s a fair risk.

Mitch Golby
Club: Brisbane
Position: Defender
2011 avg: 53.6
2012 avg: 73.7
2012 GP: 13

After starting out the year with labels such as ‘Trollby’, the young Lion had a change in fortunes and started living up to expectations. Notching up several hundreds mid-season suddenly made those who kept him geniuses as he settled into the Brisbane best-22. Ultimately, injury tainted his season and made his figures look lower than what he’s capable of. If he’s fit and has a great preseason, there’s no reason that he can’t go onto break into that 75-80 range in 2013.

Others that would’ve been a DT Fail in 2012 in my books are Ryan Hargrave, Jack Trengove, Matthew Kreuzer and Christian Howard.

Moving Forwards

Have you had past success with any mid-price picks? Or perhaps have some massive fails you’d like to share? Let us know in the comments so we can all learn from each other’s experiences.

Keep your eyes out over the preseason, as there will be plenty of action happening that will have an impact on our selections for 2013. Things like: how many decent rookie options pop up from the AFL Draft (and Rookie Draft) and (perhaps more importantly) what the results of Trade Week and the inaugural Free Agency are â€" these will shape the beginning of next season and will give us plenty to discuss over the formative months of Season 2013.

Hopefully this article has given you a bit to think about when choosing your mid-priced players for Season 2013. Before you go locking in all of the cheap fallen premiums or rising stars, stop and have a think about what your expectations are from them and whether they’re likely to get there. Otherwise, the risk in choosing them may not be worth it at all.

For further insight into how difficult it is to pick a cheap mid-pricer becoming a keeper, check out my Miracle Men article review from earlier this month.

Until later, hit me up @McRathDT on the Tweetvine.

[tbagrocks]

took risks on too many and Clancee paid off but Reece Conca with a tad over 70 didn't, but the big one was Ziebell, epic fail for Jack after he promised so much more :-\
     trying to pick the middy that "breaks out" like Ebert or Grimes is just far to risky, you'll destroy your season like I did this year, look at those who jumped on Yarren late ::) what were they thinking? only safe bet is a player like Dangerfield as a forward or Ebert who was going to play all year in Port's guts, maybe a Wallis could do an "Ebert" in 2013 but he will need to be up-graded later on.
     Only pick middys that you think will most likely "breakout" or step up and have ripper years for their club (which doesn't necessarily mean mean high scoring DT points either)
     Be very wary when choosing your mid pricers and don't have more than a few, you will lose your shot at top spot very quickly unless... like a good day on the punt they pull off but... really what are the odds on that?

[KoopKicka]

Very good article matt, I somehow had a masterstroke and started with Ebert this year, but a lot werent as lucky. :/

[Mr.Craig]

I don't go in thinking a mid-pricer will be a keeper because more often than not it ends in tears. It really depends on how good the rookies are in individual positions. I'm not sold on the forward rookies I've researched thus far and this means LeCras, Varcoe, Gray, Krakouer, Menzel etc. will be considered more highly. If they can provide decent scoring and put on 200k then I'd consider it a win.

[tbagrocks]

Very good article matt, I somehow had a masterstroke and started with Ebert this year, but a lot werent as lucky. :/

well I made a bobo in not going Ebert cos of the "Crows factor" and went with mackay :o never will I be going with a pick like this ::)
was a toss up between Ebert and Dmac ???
    only did it because after finishing my team with Coniglio, had extra 150k so decided to make Congs into a mid who could rapidly improve ???

[henry]

I started off last year with in hindsight was too many mid prices given the plethora of rookies available with gws. I started with Christian Howard who promptly was injured in his first game. I obviously didn't learn my lesson, trading him for Conca  :-[ after he backed up his huge 138 with a solid 85. He averaged around 65 and spent a lot of time on my bench before I finally upgraded him. I started with Christensen last year who was actually ok but not great, though due to my injuries and his relatively low price he stayed in my team until the end as 8th forward. My most successful was Shuey, who averaged 95 and was a great unique, though he missed too many games through suspension. I already have a few midpricers in mind, and we will all need to have some I think given there are no expansion team provided rookies. I will certainly have a closer eye on players who leave seeking better opportunities given the success of Ebert, Ward and Maric last year.

[Master Q]

Great write up mate  ;)

[DT87]

For the purposes of clarity, I’d like to point out my personal definitions for what I’d be happy to be classes as a ‘keeper’ in 2012:

Defender â€" 75 average minimum playing 20 games or higher
Midfielder â€" 95 average minimum playing 20 games or higher
Ruckman â€" 80 average minimum playing 20 games of higher
Forward â€" 80 average minimum playing 20 games of higher

That's a pretty good definition. My standards are slightly higher than most DTers though, so add five points on to each of those averages and that's what I'd expect from a first 22 keeper. If they average a little lower I'd consider them an option as a bench keeper.  :)

[Ziplock]

what about Tuck?

Mccarthy and Gaff were good if you offloaded them at the right time like I did. Ward was also solid. Danger, Sidey?

[Adamant]

what about Tuck?

Mccarthy and Gaff were good if you offloaded them at the right time like I did. Ward was also solid. Danger, Sidey?

Tuck was the pick of the year IMO.

[Holz]

IM asking mysefl this with mundy priced at 88 i can see him averaging 100 min and im hoping for 105. That would increase his price by 70k-100k and his points by 12-17. Not sure if its worth it though. Over a rookie

[Adamant]

IM asking mysefl this with mundy priced at 88 i can see him averaging 100 min and im hoping for 105. That would increase his price by 70k-100k and his points by 12-17. Not sure if its worth it though. Over a rookie

Definitely worth it, if he averages 100+

[tbagrocks]

if you have more than one (still to many) mid pricers in you midfield, start planning for 2014 ;D

with guys like Murph, Danger, Redden providing great value already and should go over 110, + all the rook superstars about to enter the scene, Tom Mitchell, O'meara and all the guns yet to be drafted, simply don't be a flower pot and put in injury prone under pricies in your midfield

even without Swan or Ablett (yes thats right) to start
Pendles, Danger, Murphy, Cotchen, Redden. even Delidio, Thompson, Watson are value
and the rooks
J O'Meara, B Crouch, N Hrovat, J Toumpas, O Wines, L Whitefield, T Mitchell, + if not kpp B Kennedy, S Colqahoun. +T Couch?

basically just don't fall for midpricers in you midfield, to much value at the top and bottom end!

[Ziplock]

out of those, only murphy and redden are value.

2 sub rule will destroy guns and rookies. Which will be good, because it just becomes pot luck.

[Matty411]

I'm pretty confident the 2 & 2 rule won't come in for 2013... If it does the following things will happen:

1. The AFL will lose a lot of supporters
2. Dream Team and SC will lose a lot of players (mostly casuals) due to the extra difficult added
3. Rookies/Young players' development will be stunted as they get far less playing time
4. People will live in constant fear (double what it was this year) of their players being subbed off - rookie performance and cash making will be lower than ever before.

All of this will see the AFL and DT lose a lot of fans... plus it'd be an abomination on the field - it's not bloody soccer FFS