My Brownlow betting Strategy

[kilbluff1985]

hi guys so have gone for a diff strategy which i hope works this being trifectas i have put 10 $5 trifectas on all different odds lowest is @51.00 will post them below i made a mistake and did the same trifecta twice pmsl on a side note they must be exact placings

Ablett/Cotchin/S.Thompson (Adel) @ 101.00

Ablett/Watson/Cotchin @ 81.00

Ablett/Cotchin/Watson @ 67.00

Cotchin/Watson/Dangerfield @ 81.00

Cotchin/Watson/Ablett @ 61.00

Cotchin/Watson/J.Kennedy(Syd) @ 201.00

Watson/Ablett/Cotchin @ 91.00

Ablett/Cotchin/Watson @ 67.00 - the one i did twice hope it gets up lol

Cotchin/Watson/S.Thompson (Adel) @ 67.00

Cotchin/Ablett/Watson @ 51.00

S.Thompson(Adel)/Swan @ 41.00 - Quinella

Dangerfield/Swan @ 51.00 - Quinella

Cotchin/Swan @ 26.00 – Quinella

S.Thompson (Adel)/Swan/Dangerfield @ 501.00

Swan/Dangerfield/Cotchin @ 401.00

so what to people think of my strategy theory is if i hit one  minimum amount won would be $255 one would think one of these will hit but dead heat rule applies so have to hope no ties but think that's very likely but oh well it's going to make the night very interesting

feel free to suggest any combos i should consider

posted this here cause i would like replies rather then just putting it in best money bets

oh yeah i did put $20 on Watson @7.00 mid season but not confident lol

[Justin Bieber]

I like it. You really hope random doesn't win then hahaha.

[Hawka]

Dane Swan will poll well as will Sammy M maybe could sneak them into some trifectas make some more moolah

[Ricochet]

yeh there is always one player that polls well and nobody sees it coming. it flowered my trifectas up last year
good luck though kilbluff, i hope it pays off
I think swan should be included as a third in some of your combos

[Windigo]

Agree with Rico, Swan should be included somewhere.

Judd won it and he missed 3 games.

[henry]

yeh there is always one player that polls well and nobody sees it coming. it flowered my trifectas up last year
good luck though kilbluff, i hope it pays off
I think swan should be included as a third in some of your combos

Sam Mitchell. As a hawks supporter he was great again this year and played 1 more game then last year. He's at ridiculous odds I think, I've got $20 at 15 to 1, so I'm looking forward to collecting my $300 smackeroonies.

[kilbluff1985]

yeh there is always one player that polls well and nobody sees it coming. it flowered my trifectas up last year
good luck though kilbluff, i hope it pays off
I think swan should be included as a third in some of your combos

Sam Mitchell. As a hawks supporter he was great again this year and played 1 more game then last year. He's at ridiculous odds I think, I've got $20 at 15 to 1, so I'm looking forward to collecting my $300 smackeroonies.

don't agree Mitchell might get 20-23 votes winner this year needs over 25 close to 30 maybe

[EZA100]

beams could get in maybe dangerfield too but good idea

[henry]

yeh there is always one player that polls well and nobody sees it coming. it flowered my trifectas up last year
good luck though kilbluff, i hope it pays off
I think swan should be included as a third in some of your combos

Sam Mitchell. As a hawks supporter he was great again this year and played 1 more game then last year. He's at ridiculous odds I think, I've got $20 at 15 to 1, so I'm looking forward to collecting my $300 smackeroonies.

don't agree Mitchell might get 20-23 votes winner this year needs over 25 close to 30 maybe

Hmm could be right there, I did a brownlow prediction last night and had Watson 34, Cotchin 31 Danger 30 but that could be a bit generous. There were a couple of outsiders who polled very well, Joel Selwood got 25 and Lenny Hayes 24. Danger is the main threat to you imo.

[Fireballz]

beams could get in maybe dangerfield too but good idea

Yeah I definitely think Beams will poll. Was BOG several times in the 2nd half of the year.

[DazBurg]

so Kil i joined up to sportsbet and done some trifecta's of my own
well got a couple of work mates to chip in too
so we went with my first thought of
Mitchell/Watson/Ablett $20 @ 401.00

one of the guys wanted this bet on
Cotchin/Watson/Dangerfield $10 @ 81.00

and then we decided to put some $1 ones that probably won't come in but had good odds

Cotchin/J.Kennedy(Syd)/J.Selwood $1 @ 1001.00
Watson/Swan/J.Selwood $1 @ 1001.00
Watson/J.Selwood/Mitchell $1 @ 1001.00
Mitchell/Swan/Watson $1 @ 751.00
Mitchell/Watson/Beams $1 @ 1001.00
Swan/Watson/Ablett $1 @ 301.00
Mitchell/J.Selwood/K.Jack $1 @ 5001.00
J.Selwood/Swan/Dangerfield $1 @ 2001.00
Watson/Mitchell/K.Jack $1 @ 1001.00

^^ these ones just purely fun ones don't expect them to come in but for 9 bucks who cares

[Windigo]

Cotchin, Watson & Ablett

Cotchin, Watson & Dangerfield

Watson, Cotchin, & Dangerfield/GAJ.

There my tips.  ;)

[BratPack]

I look more at the team leader catagory. Looking at TAB odds.

Adelaide
Thompson is fav @ $1.65 suprisingly. Danger @ $2.25 looks okay value here

Brisbane
Rocky fav @ $1.60....Redden @ $4.75 is tempting though

Carlton
Murphy fav @ $1.30....Judd maybe @ $3.50 considering the mancrush the umps have on him

Collingwood
Swan fav @ $1.50. Seems about right. Beams could be one for added value though

Essendon
So sure they are of Watson that he's not an option. Stanton is fav @ $1.01 and I can't see him losing given his start and no Watson

Freo
Pav @ $1.06. I say no more

GWS
Green SHOULD win @ $1.60. But Giles is a VAB (Value Added Bet) @ $3.25

Geelong
Selwood @ $1.05. Move along

GC
No Ablett in the market. Bennell @ $1.01. Once again Move Along

Hawthorn
Mitchell @ $1.07. No Value Here at all

Melbourne
Nathan Jones @ $1.06 is the fav. Can't really see him losing. Grimes @ $9.00 if you're really a gambler though

North Melbourne
One of the more open Swallow @ $1.70 or Boomer @ $2.05. I'd say Swallow. But Petrie @ $9.00 is also sneaky

Port Adelaide
Boak is the fav @ $2.10. I'd pass and head to Brad Ebert, he looks great value @ $2.75

Richmond
Cotchin is the fav and probably SHOULD win @ $1.07. But DeLids has got to be worth a fiver @ $6.00

St Kilda
Lenny Lenny Lenny @ $1.15 probably should hang on. But Nicky Dal @ $4.00 does have the VAB feel

Sydney
Josh Kennedy @ $1.15. I don't buy Jack at all. Let's just move on

West Coast
Scotty Selwood opens the fav @ $2.50. But this is a mine field. Cox, Priddis, Shuey. I'd probably avoid West Coast altogether...OR just toss a token couple of dollars at Nic Nat (In the "Players Not Quoted" line @ $13.00). If you put a gun to my head though...Priddis @ $3.00...but I wouldn't be happy with it.

Western Bulldogs
Boyd @ $1.10. I need say no more

[kilbluff1985]

yeah i just don't like those odds BratPack not really worth betting on

[Cicjose]

anyone know odds for Cotchin, JPK, watson trifecta?

or Cotchin, JPK, mitchell......