Guide to DT Prices 2013

Started by DT Gun, September 05, 2012, 01:27:38 AM

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DT Gun

Based on this years statistics and Magic Number I have calculated a rough scale for you to price players that your considering for next year..

Obviously we are guessing but this is the prices based on last years numbers. If your keen to get a head start i would be using my guide to help calculate for 2013.

Keep in mind the Salary cap was 8.78 Million.

Favourites
Dane Swan - 660,785
Gary Ablett Jnr - 616,766
Trent Cotchin - 547,522
Scott Pendlebury - 546,038
Buddy Franklin - 505,535

Underpriced Players
Brent Moloney - 297,254
Nathan Fyfe - 440,194
Matthew Leuenberger - 196,307
Mark LeCras - 213,200
Luke Ball - 256,203


or on a scale
Average of 60 = 296,760
Average of 70 = 346,220
Average of 80 = 395,680
Average of 90 = 445,140
Average of 100 = 494,600
Average of 110 = 544,060
Average of 120 = 593,520

Discount
0 Games = 50%
1 Game = The previous years average with a 40%
2-3 Games = 30%
4-5 Games = 20%
6-7 Games = 10%

Ricochet

very nice mate, Lecca and Leuy will probably be in most teams at that price

Holz

I dont think you can afford to start with swan or ablett according to this. No way will i pay 200k more for swan than say a murphy.

I feel VS will bump up the prices of lecras, ball and burger but they should all be looked at (especially lecras + burger)

Toga

Quote from: Holzman on September 05, 2012, 03:06:24 AM
I dont think you can afford to start with swan or ablett according to this. No way will i pay 200k more for swan than say a murphy.

I feel VS will bump up the prices of lecras, ball and burger but they should all be looked at (especially lecras + burger)

Yeah idk if I could justify paying that much for two of my mids... An eighth of the salary cap just for two players!

But they're kind of must haves... ::)

POK252

Quote from: DT Gun on September 05, 2012, 01:27:38 AM
Based on this years statistics and Magic Number I have calculated a rough scale for you to price players that your considering for next year..

Obviously we are guessing but this is the prices based on last years numbers. If your keen to get a head start i would be using my guide to help calculate for 2013.

Keep in mind the Salary cap was 8.78 Million.

Favourites
Dane Swan - 660,785
Gary Ablett Jnr - 616,766
Trent Cotchin - 547,522
Scott Pendlebury - 546,038
Buddy Franklin - 505,535

Underpriced Players
Brent Moloney - 297,254
Nathan Fyfe - 440,194
Matthew Leuenberger - 196,307
Mark LeCras - 213,200
Luke Ball - 256,203


or on a scale
Average of 60 = 296,760
Average of 70 = 346,220
Average of 80 = 395,680
Average of 90 = 445,140
Average of 100 = 494,600
Average of 110 = 544,060
Average of 120 = 593,520

Discount
0 Games = 50%
1-3 Games = 30%
4-5 Games = 20%
6-7 Games = 10%


I've done the same sort of thing mate. I worked out the magic number to be about 4.947, would be pretty close to yours.
Not sure how the discounts are calculated. I gave 40% for no gamers, 30% for 1-3 (same as you) 20% for 4-6 and 10% for 7-9. You're probably right with the discounts but maybe just maybe Fyfe will get a discount for only playing 9 games.

Just seeing those prices might have changed my mind about Swanny again. At first I thought I wouldnt pick him but this post then changed my mind - http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,67575.0.html. But now seeing him being over 100k more than Pendles or Cotchin will make it very hard for me to start him

Windigo

Berger won't be that cheap I don't think.

I think they take a few special cases into account such as Hayes last year. But I could be wrong.



MLS

Quote from: Windigo on September 05, 2012, 10:57:15 AM
Berger won't be that cheap I don't think.

I think they take a few special cases into account such as Hayes last year. But I could be wrong.

Did the same with Porps last year, basically making up their own price. Burger at under 200k seems too good to be true

Jukes

Good research DTG, the only guy with a worse cheer/boo ratio then me :P

I'll probably go with Fyfe and LeCras as cheap forwards 4 and 5 or 5 and 6, maybe Berger depends on his nab cup form.

clucktacular

I wonder how much Jarryd Blair will be nxt year, he'll be my smokey stay off him.

DT-SC

Swan , Pendles, Cotchin, Redden/Murphy     looks likely

henry

Thanks for your work here mate, I'm sure it'll end up being pretty accurate. I agree that after looking at those prices it is hard to justify having both swan and Gaj given that you save 100k yet still pick up guns in Pendles and Cotchin. I will still start with Swan then upgrade to GAJ when he falls in price.

Master Q

What number is the magic number? I forgot...

Hagebear

Yeh will be tough to leave out Swan. Didn't start with him last year and was waiting for his price fall but never got cheap enough to upgrade to and it obviously cost me GF week. Pendles will be a great price and Luke Ball could be a very handy pick up if he's righ to go by round 1.

DT Gun


Ziplock

^ that was it last season anyway

ohhh 8.5mil salary cap, I thought it was 10 mil

made a mock team and was like- what the flower, that looks wayyy too Opd :P