AXVs: Official Discussion Thread

[Football Factory]

let's make sure we don't get personal :)

This is XVs. The XV literally stands for 15. The traditional team format is the last thing that the should change.

Shock horror, princess disagrees.

So the admin literally says "don't get personal" and the first thing you do is get personal? Settle down big man. I'm gonna assume you're probably double my age, so show some class and maturity and don't act half of it.

#1 - Should we increase the number of players on field?

- A - No, stay at 15

- This option was a clear winner. A couple of coaches were in favour of increasing numbers, but most happy to stay at 15.

Huh, looks like the majority agrees with princess. Who would have thought?! :o

We also voted for 15 princess.   I posted it just to get you to comment, yes it's that easy.

Oh okay, so now you're being purposely inflammatory? Would be awful to lose more coaches/teams because of this kind of toxicity. Teetering on borderline reportable behaviour if you ask me. And mods don't take kindly to people being inflammatory either. Just ask the likes of tbag and Trindacut, oh wait...

That's half of your posts.

[Nige]

Alright, here goes. There's a lot of parts to this post, so I'm gonna break it down quite a bit. Should hopefully make the point clear as well. Didn't have the time to do it before the original vote, but maybe if people can see what I mean, the admins might consider putting nas' idea to vote against the winning option from vote 3.



I think it's important to start with the ladder as it's an important part of this whole thing. Below is the ladder at the end of the home and away season, with W-L and points for. You'll see why this matters shortly.

1: Tibet | 14-5 | 35769
2: Sri Lanka | 14-5 | 34996
3: Bangkok | 14-5 | 36403
4: KL | 13-6 | 35858
5: PNG | 12-7 | 34208
6: Bangladesh | 11-8 | 33997
7: Taiwan | 11-8 | 33736
8: Manila | 11-8 | 33296
---
9: Laos | 11-8 | 32043
10: Turkey | 10-9 | 32976
11: UAE | 8-11 | 32012
12: Vietnam | 6-13 | 30499
13: Kathmandu | 6-13 | 31378
14: Australia | 6-13 | 29530
15: Hong Kong | 3-16| 29187
16: Mongolia | 2-17 | 28437

Added up all the points for totals, the average ended up being 32,770

Now consider this, the 5 teams currently in limbo are: Tibet, KL, Taiwan, Turkey and Hong Kong.

Ladder without those teams:

2: Sri Lanka | 14-5 | 34996
3: Bangkok | 14-5 | 36403
5: PNG | 12-7 | 34208
6: Bangladesh | 11-8 | 33997
8: Manila | 11-8 | 33296
---
9: Laos | 11-8 | 32043
11: UAE | 8-11 | 32012
12: Vietnam | 6-13 | 30499
13: Kathmandu | 6-13 | 31378
14: Australia | 6-13 | 29530
16: Mongolia | 2-17 | 28437

So 3 top 8 teams teams and 2 bottom 8 teams gone.

And our magic number? 32770

I'm sure you've noticed that the top 8 teams are fairly comfortably above it. "Oh, but Nige, what about the fact Laos also finished 11-8?" Well, here's the thing, that was luck. We were lucky to do that well if you look at my weekly scores, there was pretty serious fluctuation. Consider that the points for difference between Manila and Laos was 1253, that's significant enough in my book.



The next thing I wanna look at is the lists. Lists of both teams groups here, the lists of those in limbo and the lists of those still in the comp. The former will be our player pool for the draft minus one team at this stage, assuming a coach is found. The emphasis is gonna be on XVs here.

I'll start with the 'best XV' of each of the teams without a coach at present, I guess this might help the incoming coach decide on the team they want, but it is what it is. I'm using averages according to UF, taking into account players already delisted/retired and likely/assumed positional changes. Also common sense, and the likelihood of a player being best 22. Player average in brackets.

Hong Kong
Houston (95), Byrne-Jones (94), Bowes (85), Hardwick (84)
Dunkley (126), Conca (98), LTaylor (96), Hewett (84)
SMartin (120)
Robinson (117), CCurnow (104), McKernan (103), LRyan (82)
Rayner (79), Gardiner (78)

KL
Shaw (116), BSmith (98), Hibberd (88), Broad (61)
Beams (138), Ablett (136), Sidebottom (133), Pendlebury (131)
Grundy (144)
Franklin (135), Menegola (132), Darling (111), JThomas (100)
JSelwood (131), TKelly (116)

Taiwan
BHill (107), ZWilliams (103*) Maynard (98), Houli (95),
Coniglio (147), Lyons (126), Steele (124), Heeney (122)
Kreuzer (99)
TMcDonald (128), JCripps (113), Cutler (113), Caddy (112)
Fiorini (122), Ebert (118)

^{In the case of Williams who is definitely best 22 but was injured for 2018, 2017 avg was used}

Tibet
Laird (135), Blakely (117), BWilliams (106), Scharenberg (93)
Macrae (157), ABrayshaw (138), MCrouch (131), Neale (126)
Gawn (132)
Mundy (119), Boak (116), Wingard (110), TTLynch (106)
Viney (118), JPKennedy (116)

Turkey
Hurley (108), Salem (105), BEllis (95), TLangdon (95)
TMitchell (166), Dangerfield (140), Duncan (132), JAnderson (100)
OOP Ruck (45)
JCameron (114), BBrown (100), Dixon (96), Patton (93)
Sheed (97), Aish (93)

^{Turkey don't have a best 22 ruck on their list, so I've just assumed a rough OOP score}

So what conclusions can we make from this? Well, whatever way you look at it, the draft pool is going to be absolutely stacked. That's just 60 players (when one of those teams is taken), not including some of the depth players which are good enough to make the XVs of most teams. I'd take a majority of the 75 players mentioned above on my list and put them in my XV in a heartbeat. For the sake of the argument, I'm assume Tibet will be chosen by the new coach. So if you put the 60 remaining players in a draft pool, and there are 12 teams drafting, that's 5 rounds. A linear draft has been voted in, so keep that in mind.

I'm going off averages here, not positions, even though that's a likely factor when people will pick, or presumably anyway.

1: TMitchell (166)
2: Macrae (157)
3: Coniglio (147)
4: Grundy (144)
5: Dangerfield (140)
6: ABrayshaw (138), Beams (138)
7: Ablett (136)
8: Franklin (135), Laird (135)
9: Sidebottom (133)
10: Gawn (132), Menegola (132), Duncan (132)
11: Pendlebury (131), JSelwood (131), MCrouch (131)
12: TMcDonald (128)

Top 12 averages displayed there, with players who shared the same average ranked together to account for the choices that could be made. All up, that's 18 players. However, I crossed out the 5 players in the Tibet team under the assumption they're taken. With the exception of Macrae, they all share an average meaning the order barely changes. Dunkely and Lyons  (126) are the next two for what it's worth.

Now we move on.



I'm taking the top 3 teams from the ladder without the 5 teams above. I'm also taking the bottom 3 teams as well. Also naming some players of note from the top teams not getting a gig that might at other teams, just to highlight what I feel is a bit of an issue.

2: Sri Lanka | 14-5 | 34996
3: Bangkok | 14-5 | 36403
5: PNG | 12-7 | 34208

Sri Lanka
Simpson (124), Suckling 114), McVeigh (101), Johannisen (99)
ECurnow (131), Ward (124), Bontempelli (124), Sloane (118)
Sinclair (116)
Westhoff (136), Walters (109), KLangford (108), Deledio (103)
DThomas (111), Acres (104)

Not named: Miles (106), Sheppard (98), Lycett (97), SJacobs (96), Hoskin-Elliott (95)

Bangkok
Witherden (115), Harbrow (103), MacMillan (95), AKennedy (92) 
DSmith (145), Yeo (144), Treloar (140), Zorko (134)
Nankervis (112)
Ziebell (116), Stringer (97), Impey (94), Motlop (89)
ZMerrett (131), O'Meara (129)

Not named: TAdams (124), Swallow (111), Cotchin (104), Berry (102), Naitanui (98), Parish (96), KKolodjashnij (89)

PNG
Seedsman (105), TStewart (104), Crozier (97), LMcDonald (91)
Oliver (140), Hunter (135), Heppell (133), TPhillips (124)
Witts (111)
Billings (111), Neal-Bullen (107), Parfitt (101), Gresham (101)
Rockliff (110), Atkins (106)

Not named: Stanley (99), Cunningham (99), RClarke (90)

Summary: It's probably a bit unfair to drag PNG into this because they had 2 less wins and 778 less points that the next best (Sri Lanka) in that top 3, not to mention they barely have the depth. However, if you look at the other two, there are some good names and averages missing out there. According to the list I made above, players 11 and 12 are Pendlebury and JSelwood. Obviously Sri Lanka or Bangkok could take a different position to recruit for a need, but it's still pretty crazy to think they could be getting a 130 avg player when one is already struggling to fit a 124 avg mid in. Obviously they could trade to fix the issue, but still, kinda scary to think. In both cases, the depth covers each line too.

---

13: Kathmandu | 6-13 | 31378
14: Australia | 6-13 | 29530
16: Mongolia | 2-17 | 28437

Kathmandu
Austin (103), Milera (98), Doedee (93), LHenderson (88)
Gaff (144), Polec (122), ISmith (119), Hannebery (76)
Ryder (91)
Breust (121), Fantasia (111), de Boer (103), Stephenson (93)
JTrengove (92), SGray (91)

Australia
Crisp (113), Hodge (101), Lewis (101), Hooker (92)
Steven (125), Shuey (114), Masten (102), Armitage (101)
Sandilands (88)
Hogan (124), Gunston (122), JMartin (115), Greene (94)
Newnes (90), Lobb (86)

Mongolia
Sicily (126), Hartlett (113), Morrison (88), MAdams (81)
Shiels (130), MMurphy (126), Dunstan (108), Grigg (98)
Roughead (87)
TJLynch (97), CCameron (93), DRioli (90), Gowers (84)
Horlin-Smith (85), Guelfi (83)

Summary: I think there are some pretty glaring issues with all of these sides. Kathmandu scored a lot better thanks to having a solid captain like Gaff but depth on every line is dire and trails off before the starters even finish. Australia has a fair few older fellas and the depth isn't that great either, they also suffered from the coach naming players OOP for whatever the reason was and his general activity levels and attitude mean that I don't think there'll be an abundance of work done outside the draft. Mongolia got caught between a rock and hard place. Depth an obvious issue and missing key personnel for extended periods basically shows how they ended up 2-17.



I'm happy we've made way in moving on, but I've done my best to illustrate the conecern with facts and figures to hopefully shed some light as to why I've been so vocal, because apparently that's been upsetting a few people. All I've done is try to be realistic and help fix this comp the best way I can. Ultimately, my hands are tied because despite wanting the best for the comp, I'm still at the mercy of both admin and coach discretion.

TL;DR - Figure this is necessary, but hopefully people have actually read the post before getting to this. I encourage people to read the post and then give some thought to the situation and nas' idea. Maybe a bit of thought and consideration may result in a revote or else this was all for nothing, and if it is, so be it. At least I can say I tried, and you can't begrudge someone for that.

Additionally, I'm a little upset that I'm being attacked for just trying to generate discussion, I thought people would be above that. Especially consider some of the coaches here are older than I am and should therefore be more mature. I can't help but noticed the more vocals coaches have been from teams higher on the ladder. Maybe there's correlation between success and stature and acitivity, but I don't want to jump to conclusions. I hope we can have civilised discussion moving forward, I really do. This comp needs everybody, or at least a majority on the same page and at peace with the decisions, so hopefully that eventually comes to be.

[upthemaidens]

Lucky you managed to get Laos in there, never could have predicted that...

[Nige]

Lucky you managed to get Laos in there, never could have predicted that...

Would you like to contribute to discussion for once rather than just making unnecessary and snide remarks towards me?

[GoLions]

Lucky you managed to get Laos in there, never could have predicted that...

Would you like to contribute to discussion for once rather than just making unnecessary and snide remarks towards me?

I assumed he was just trying to stop other coaches from joining the comp by making it seem like all the current coaches were toxic cows

[GoLions]

Probably done me a huge favour tbh, i almost put my hand up to coach!

[SydneyRox]

Nige, thats a mountain of data, just so i can have a think , what was your suggestion on how the draft should we handled?

I must admit when I voted for the reverse ladder I did assume a more even comp

[nas]

Nige, thats a mountain of data, just so i can have a think , what was your suggestion on how the draft should we handled?

I must admit when I voted for the reverse ladder I did assume a more even comp

IMO the only way to improve is by letting the bottom 5 teams pick from the teams disbanded for 3 rounds then 4th round bottom 5 againbut add the 6th + into the draft. Top teams then remain strong but the bottom 5 improve

[Nige]

Nige, thats a mountain of data, just so i can have a think , what was your suggestion on how the draft should we handled?

I must admit when I voted for the reverse ladder I did assume a more even comp

IMO the only way to improve is by letting the bottom 5 teams pick from the teams disbanded for 3 rounds then 4th round bottom 5 againbut add the 6th + into the draft. Top teams then remain strong but the bottom 5 improve

Yep, this idea of nas' is how I think it should be handled.

[SydneyRox]

yeah well, looking at the top teams that makes more sense to even it out.

Can we go back to a revote or has the ship sailed?

How many people would alter their view now some solid evidence has been presented.



otherwise, can I leave Vietnam and take over Tibet!! :P

[Rusty00]

I'd be happy with this revised drafting method for the sake of evening up the comp.

[Koop]

I'll come back to be coach #12 if we can get this moving quickly. No point arguing about trivial things.

[Nige]

I'll come back to be coach #12 if we can get this moving quickly. No point arguing about trivial things.

Do it.

[SydneyRox]

I'll come back to be coach #12 if we can get this moving quickly. No point arguing about trivial things.

nice work Koop

[Rids]

Bangkok happy to go with Nas idea if it means we can get this comp back up and going again. We have always been very ok with evening up the comp which makes for much more interest through the season proper.