LaHug's Captains Round 22 - REQUEST WEEK!

[LaHug]

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Hey guys,
I've been super snowed under this week so I've made it Request Week! Essentially, I have only looked at Ablett vs. Swan and I want YOU to REQUEST the rest! If you don't request a player, you won't hear about them. If you appreciate my work, why not reward me with a little vote in the Personality of the Year Award? http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,45929.0.html

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

The facts:

Swan
Last 3: 120, 159, 165 (148 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 132, 144, 89 (122 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 125, 131, 158 (138 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 175, 99, 130 (135 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 96, 95, 145 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 99, 152, 104 (118 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
Remember that thing about stars dominating against teams from the West? Swan's scores against the Eagles read as follows (in reverse order): 132, 144, 89, 161, 158, 133, 158, 99, 102, 126. Seriously, that's ridiculous. How about at Subiaco? 125, 131, 158, 72, 99, 126. Sure, it's not as good once you go past the last 3, but it's nothing to gawk at. We all know how good his form has been this season (only one score - a 95 - under 100 this year and 9 scores of 120+ including 6 of his last 8), but what about his form coming back from a week or more off? My friend Ricochet came up with this for me! These are his scores coming back from a week off in the last three seasons: 142, 132 (this season against the Eagles), 115, 125, 122, 141. There is not a single flaw for Swan this week. Prediction - 145

Ablett
Ablett's form against the Blues is much less exciting than Swan against the Eagles. His last two were both under 100 and 3 of the last 4, 6 of 10 for his career were under the ton. He copped the Carrazzo tag in his only game against them as a Sun and he'll likely get it again. He is at the ground he likes to play with a career average of 114 there, so there's a plus. We all know of his 175 last week and his recent form as a whole has been great since the bye. Final this is to look at Ablett's last few games after SUPER scores. His most recent was the 190 which was followed by a nightmare of a game against the Saints where he was disinterested and scored a shocking 61. Next was a 160 in round 3 against the Bombers which was followed by a dismal 97 against the Raines tag. The only other 160+ as a Sun was followed by the game where he got injured against the Swans and went off for 23 in the 2nd quarter (bad omen for follow up games?). Essentially, the opponent and the trend of following up big scores, plus the likely Carrazzo tag, mean Ablett might not be the best choice. Prediction - 110


The verdict:

1. Swan (145)
2. Johnson (135)
3. Beams (125)
4. Cotchin (125)
5. Gibbs (125)
The top 5 will FREQUENTLY be updated as requests come in.

Requests:

BRING ON THE REQUESTS! Especially if you don't have Swan...

Cotchin - Requested by LF
Last 3: 101, 152, 103 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 143, 119, 109 (124 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 152, 118, 101 (124 avg)

Cotchin now has 8 straight tons since the bye and is sitting on 7 straight tons at the G (and 9 of 11 for the season). His recent record against the Bombers is great and he had a 29 disposal, 3 goal effort for 143 earlier in the year. Looking good. Prediction - 125

Redden - Requested by LF
Last 3: 121, 108, 93 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 129, 95, 112 (112 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 95, 92, 95 (94 avg)

Redden is doing reasonably well this season and comes up against the subpar Port Adelaide this week. His last game against them was a solid 129 but he's done much better against them at the Gabba than in Adelaide. Still, his form is pretty decent and Port are useless. Prediction - 110

Selwood - Requested by LF
Last 3: 67, 88, 125 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 100, 92, 139 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 113, 119, 62 (98 avg)

Mr. Consistent has hit a rough patch in the last two weeks and disappointing his DT coaches when it matters most (i.e. DT finals time). His scores against the Bulldogs are pretty good but nothing too exciting. His home ground is his preferred ground but, despite a few pluses, it's hard to back him with recent form. Prediction - 100

Beams - Requested by LF
Last 3: 129, 131, 119 (126 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 117, 86, 91 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 128, 100 (114 avg)

Beams keeps scoring well (and rising in price - making him unaffordable for coaches like me that are silly and don't have him), with 15 of his last 16 being tons, 6 130+ scores and 9 120+ scores for the season. His 4 career games against the Eagles have been 117, 86, 91, 119 which, considering this was his real break out year, is pretty good! He's only had two career games out west for two tons. Prediction - 125

Dangerfield - Requested by LF
Last 3: 108, 137, 130 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 33, 72, 30 (45 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 91, 33, 77 (67 avg)

Let's discuss those horrendous scores against Melbourne. That 33 was a game where he was subbed in the third quarter after hitting his head on the turf. Still, 33 during the third is pretty poor. That 30 was a 10 handball game before being stetchered off in the 3rd quarter. Again, unfortunate circumstances but 30 is pretty poor in the third. There was also a 31 in 2009 but, frankly, I'm not too sure of the details. It's a strange pattern to have 3 of your 4 scores in the 30s but two of them were less than 3 quarters of a game. Just quickly, he's coming off 5 straight tons and is in great form which may be his saving grace. In his 3 games this season against the Giants and Suns (other poor teams), he's scored 89, 66, and 76. I don't like him this week. Prediction - 85

Pendlebury - Requested by stew42
Last 3: 97, 105, 92 (98 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 138, 131, 124 (131 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 145, 117, 139 (134 avg)

Pendles has some pretty average recent form but let's focus on him against the Eagles. His last 6 are 138, 131, 124, 139, 103, 109 and they're his favourite team to play against over his career. And he loves it over at Patterson's. My only worry is his form coming into this game. Prediction - 120

Deledio - Requested by stew42
Last 3: 78, 121, 126 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 160, 74, 108 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 121, 99, 103 (108 avg)

Last time they played, Lids went crazy on the Bombers for 160. However, that was his only really big score against the Bombers. Last week he was shut down by Crowley but he was doing ok before that. Should be good but nothing spectacular. Prediction - 110

Johnson - Requested by bigballs
Last 3: 98, 134, 113 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 148, 143, 115 (135 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 1, 79, 150 (77 avg)

Stevie J has had a few big scores this year (5 over 130) and his fair share of big ones at Kardinia. His last three against the Bulldogs are awesome and, as Goodes showed last week, trends against the Dogs are easy to keep up when they're playing so poorly. If it weren't for Swan, I'd say this guy would probably be the pick of the bunch. Prediction - 135

Thompson - Requested by bigballs
Last 3: 108, 65, 80 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 61, 70, 78 (70 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 57, 61, 107 (75 avg)

Scotty T is in poor DT form, sucks against Melbourne and is poor at the MCG. Prediction - 70

Murphy - Requested by smoothM24
Last 3: 163, 99, 90 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 129 (129 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 130 (130 avg)

His only game at Metricon was actually a Carlton home game against Fremantle in 2009. He's only played against the Gold Coast once for a solid 129. After being up and down this season, he exploded for a 163 last week which was possibly helped by the return of Judd. With Judd playing again, Murph should be good. Prediction - 120

Goddard - Requested by Spinking
Last 3: 125, 107, 99 (110 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Etihad: 125, 120, 75 (107 avg)

Having never played against the Giants, it's hard to know how Goddard will go. He has surely had his fair share of poor scores this year although, recently, he has seemed ok. I can't back him without any big stats in his favour. Prediction - 105

Watson - Requested by fran
Last 3: 98, 132, 115 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 134, 104, 68 (102 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 98, 128, 134 (120 avg)

Watson has been a star this year with last week just being a rare sub-100 blip (1 of only 4 for the year). He did well against the Tigers earlier in the year and will look to do so again. Prediction - 115

Gibbs - Requested by Shihan7
Last 3: 125, 141, 122 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 144 (144 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 142 (142 avg)

Gibbs is back! His last three give him a great rolling average just under 130. The Blues and Suns have only met once and Gibbs scored a solid 144. His one game on the Gold Coast (in 2009 against Freo) was a solid 142! Everything looks good! Prediction - 125

Kennedy - Requested by bigballs
Last 3: 114, 153, 57 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 149, 97, 62 (103 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 99, 83, 76 (86 avg)

JPK had a hot streak early in the year and, in that run, scored a solid 149 against the Hawks. His last two games have been great so is he on another roll? It's really hard to pick what this guy will do but he's likely to pull out his best with what could be the biggest game of the regular season. Prediction - 115

Boyd - Requested by bigballs
Last 3: 100, 102, 115 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 111, 94, 112 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 94, 46, 65 (68 avg)

Boyd has been a little subpar by his standards of late. His last few against the Cats have been decent, with a 111 earlier in the year. I'd suggest ignoring the stats at Kardinia as only the 94 is in the last 4 seasons. Essentially, he's just plugging out reasonable scores and we're all waiting for him to explode again. However, it doesn't look like this week. Prediction - 110

Simpson - Requested by Adamant
Last 3: 131, 111, 80 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 67 (67 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 86 (86 avg)

Simpson has been a huge rollercoaster in the midfield this season and it would be a huge risk to have him in your mids, let alone captain him. Up until round 6, he was flying. Since then, his scores were generally horrible until the last two weeks. He is now on two straight solid tons and comes up against a team that he could smash. Last year, he was poor against them but he's generally done well against the poorer teams this season (bar the Power). I see a good score this week (also, he scored 93 on the Saints earlier in the year so, Adamant, he may be ok to bring in). Prediction - 115

Stanton - Requested by B.S
Last 3: 72, 62, 84 (73 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 124, 135, 69 (109 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 72, 105, 124 (100 avg)

Stanton has now gone 5 straight games without a ton giving him a 5 game average of 75... That alone should tell you not to captain him. His last game against the Tigers was when he was playing well so it's hard to take much from it. You can say much the same about his better MCG games as most of his recent games have been at Etihad. He'll probably be tagged by a Jackson or a White which, regardless of whether or not they're good taggers, will probably slow him down. Put frankly, Stanton is useless when tagged and will be again this week. Only saving grace is that he scored well against them last time. Prediction - 80

Priddis - Requested by KoopKicka
Last 3: 84, 88, 83 (85 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 83, 118, 89 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 88, 83, 85 (85 avg)

Priddis tends to fluctuate between 80somethings and 110ish scores against the Pies (with a 143 thrown in there in 2007). There is no pattern to this scoring with some of both the good and bad scores occurring in Perth and in Melbourne. The one thing that does seem to be a bit of a pattern is that they are alternating. Last time, it was 80something so maybe it'll be 110 this week? His recent form seems to disagree with 5 straight scores under 100. Not a good enough record against his opponent to counter the 4 consecutive sub 90s with 3 of them coming at home. Prediction - 85

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments or via Twitter at https://twitter.com/LaHugDT

[DT Gun]

Swan should be the only person you look at this week anyway

[LF]

Cotchin,Redden,Jelwood,Beams and Danger please LaHug.

[LaHug]

Swan should be the only person you look at this week anyway

Strongly agree. However, I'm sure there are still people without Swan and they might want an alternative to GAJ...

Cotchin,Redden,Jelwood,Beams and Danger please LaHug.

Woah woah woah, one at a time :P
Time to get my stats on before bed!

[PowerBug]

I am so trading in Swan this week. :P Burnt my last two trades on getting him now ftr. :D

[stew42]

This can wait until tomorrow, but Pendles and Lids as well would be tops!

[bigballs]

stevie j; scotty t and patty d... thanks give us a  la hug

[kilbluff1985]

nice work m8 hope everybody that reads it gives you a cheer for your work

[Mr.Craig]

Hmmm, you've given me something to think about Huggy. I did have the C on Ablett but given those stats and the fact my opponent doesn't have Swan it might be worth putting all my chips on black (and white).

[LaHug]

This can wait until tomorrow, but Pendles and Lids as well would be tops!

stevie j; scotty t and patty d... thanks give us a  la hug

Definitely going to have to wait until morning but will give them all a look!

I am so trading in Swan this week. :P Burnt my last two trades on getting him now ftr. :D

Hmmm, you've given me something to think about Huggy. I did have the C on Ablett but given those stats and the fact my opponent doesn't have Swan it might be worth putting all my chips on black (and white).

Wise moves!!!

nice work m8 hope everybody that reads it gives you a cheer for your work

Thanks buddy.

[McRooster]

Back in my bootstudder days I was shouted down for posting this exact Captain choice scenario... I was called a Relton  :-[

The thread was removed by moderators.

I will be locking in Swan, as I did three seasons ago, over Ablett.

Dane. You owe us.

[LaHug]

Back in my bootstudder days I was shouted down for posting this exact Captain choice scenario... I was called a Relton  :-[

The thread was removed by moderators.

I will be locking in Swan, as I did three seasons ago, over Ablett.

Dane. You owe us.

Can't even imagine somebody not respecting you in these forums. Oh how things have changed!!!

And, on that note, I must sleep.....

[Ricochet]

stevie j; scotty t and patty d... thanks give us a  la hug

this guy pls LH. hard to look past Swan but would be interested in your thoughts on Stevie J

[LF]

Thanks for that LaHug

[smoothM24]

hey mate could you have a look at marc murphy. cheerd