The Spring Racing Carnival

[fidou]

Cheers Windigo, will the odds go down or up alot if i wait until cup day to bet? or am i better doing it now?

The final 24 horses wont be listed until after racing on Saturday so yep the odds are going to change. Gatewood is running in the Lexus so needs to win to get into the field I think. There are a few Melb Cup horses running on Saturday so there hopes rest on there runs.

[Windigo]

Cheers Windigo, will the odds go down or up alot if i wait until cup day to bet? or am i better doing it now?

The final 24 horses wont be listed until after racing on Saturday so yep the odds are going to change. Gatewood is running in the Lexus so needs to win to get into the field I think. There are a few Melb Cup horses running on Saturday so there hopes rest on there runs.

If Gatewood can back up his Geelong cup win with a win at the Lexus he will really feature heavily in the betting I'd imagine.

I don't think Dunaden can win with his handicap.  :-\

I'd never place a bet so far out until any race. A lot of things can happen and there are more chances for horses to show themselves.

I'll do the form next week to give me some idea of what to do.  :P

[tbagrocks]

Saturday kicks of Cup week at Flemington with Derby Day

P.s a Horse is a Stallion, a Gelding has lost his balls :-\, so H = Stallion, g = gelding, C = Colt, M = Mare (4yr + female), f = filly

Race 1 Carbine Club Stakes, 1600m G3 3yr olds
I like the look of Proverb, not sure why he wasn't sent to the Derby.

Race 2 the Lexus, 2500m Hcp G3
1. Gatewood 5yr Horse 10:5-2-1, Won the Geelong Cup very softly and now a Cup contender, EW Tuesday ;)
2. Tanby 6yr gelding 21:8-3-3, Won the Bart, great strike rate, was in great form last spring and has found in at the right time this year.
4. Kelinni 5yr g 17:7-3-3, also has a great SR, in great form but the Metrop form is always misleading.
6. Excluded 5yr g 17:7-3-1, stepping up to class nicely after fallen fav in JRA Cup, with 2nd Herb Power
7. Reuben Percival 6yr g 27:5-4-4, 2nd in MV Cup but still needs to improve
8. Exceptionally 6yr M 33;4-4-5, only won 4 from 33 and I don't see why she's so highly rated at this level having done nothing
9. Dame Claire 5yr M 30:6-2-3, favorable distance for her and although a wayward runner is my tip!
12. Dare To Dream 5yr H 7:3-0-2, been waiting for him and will have to be in it, Watch
tbag says
Gateway, Dare to Dream, Dame Claire, Tanby

Race 4 Coolmore Stud Stakes 3yr olds 1200m Group 1
only two to look at but the betting says three ::)
1. Sizzling 3yr Colt 9:5-2-0, Boom 2yr old trying to match sprint sensation Snitzerland
9. Snitzerland 3yr filly 9:6-2-0, unbeaten this spring and really should continue
11.Nechita 3yr f 3:2-0-0, somehow she's in the betting so respect

Race 5 Mackinnon Stakes 2000m Group 1
Key Cup lead-up and some how to my discussed Winchester is the top weight
1. Winchester 8yr H 28:6-6-3, hasn't done a flowering thing in Oz and is 50/1
2. Glass Harmonium 7yr H 27:5-5-2, Won this last year but not racing like that atm, could suprise
3. Alcopop 8yr g 32:9-5-0, Can nearly be considered a Champion but not sure why he's running here, Tuesday!
4. December Draw 7yr g 27:8-3-6, not the horse he was butis capable
7. Ocean Park 4yr H 11:7-3-0, the new Australian Superstar and odds on here, last run for the spring?

Race 7 Group 1 Myer Classic, 1600m Mares
Disappointing to not the the champ Mosheen here :-\
1. Streama 4yr M 16:7-4-2, The class Mare here and after winning the 2400m ATC Oaks why isn't she staying? 1600m :o
2. Secret Admirer 5yr M 21:3-5-7, Racing in top company back aginst her sex, decent miler and a chance
3. Yosei 5yr M 29:4-1-3, Good miler who doesn't win the big races but can place,
4. Red Tracer 5yr M 21:9-3-5, top SR but only average at this top level
5. Skyerush 7yr M 38:8-8-10, Good miling mare racing well, add to multis (trifecters etc)
6. Pear Tart 4yr M 11:6-1-0, Good Mare on the rise, won some good 3yr old races and 2nd behind Streama last run
10.Oasis Boom 4yr M 6:2-2-0, Looks an impressive mare on the up

Race 8 Yallowglen Stakes, Hcp Group 2
1. Tiger Tees 5yr g 14:9-3-0,
2. Golden Archer 4yr H 15:8-3-1, Dead set sprinter very consistant and in top form
3. Pampelonne 4yr g 9:5-2-0, Ran into top sprinters in the Group 1 Schillaci with most running again here, but looks promising
4. Rolling Pin 5yr g 24:8-4-3, 3rd 1600m Epsom Dropping back to 1200m and freshened
5. Spirit of Boom 5yr H 30:6-6-3, Decent sprinter struggling for winning form
6. Howmuchdoyouloveme 4yr g 6:5-1-0, Superstar in the making

[tbagrocks]

                             AAmi Victorian Derby

Race 6, 3yr Colds/Geldings 2500m Group 1

This seems a wide open Derby after the last two weeks of racing, hopefully my old boss Kav gets up with Super Cool ;D
1. It's A Dundeel 3yr C 6:5-1-0, Emerging Star out done last time, sure to feature
2. Jimando 3yr C 9:3-0-3, maybe struggling against the best but is still a chance at 2500m
3. Honorius 3yr C 11:2-2-2, is right in this race and is consistant
4. Super Cool 3yr g 5:2-1-0, Embarrassed Dunny last time and is rappidly improving over distance, Go Mark Kav!
5. Hvasstan 3yr C 6:3-2-0, Impressive Colt and could even start favorite! I'll be on him!
Don't think the rest have the class of these 5 but in an early 3yr old race at 2500m anything could happen
tbags best
Hvasstan, It's a Dundeel, Super Cool, Honorius

[Windigo]

Isn't it Gatewood?  :P

I'm on Kellini for the Lexus. Think $10.00 is massive odds. Kell is only one of two horses in the race to win at this distance as well. The other being Tanby which has won 3 times at this distance and once on this track. Hmm.  :-\

Glen Boss on Gatewood with Barrier one will be hard to beat.

But Nash Rawiller is in good form riding Reuben Percival for second and Hidden Warrior for first in his last two.

In his last eight rides his lowest ride is 4th ( 3 times)

P.S: Love your work as usual.  ;)

[northernstar]

                             AAmi Victorian Derby

1. It's A Dundeel 3yr C 6:5-1-0, Emerging Star out done last time, sure to feature

Didn't run hard last start, why would you with the Derby next week. I think it will win easy.

[Windigo]

Yeah, It's A Dundeel is probably the best bet of he day.  :)

[tbagrocks]

I couldn't resist and even though she races so green I got on Dame Claire at her odds, resisting Dare to Dream and Gatewood

Come tomorrow and i will probably have money on Super Cool, very hard to flirt with a very young horse's like Dunny's form and turn it around! Unless they held him up from his best work in the spring finish it still gets very tricky!

Peek conditioning can be the difference! Enter a Bart or Moody, even Kav! Also Gai, Hawkes and Hayes

[T Dog]

Any thoughts on a Quaddie TBag? I am looking at 2,9,13 - 1,10,13 - 2,5,10 - 1,8....whoo hoo  >:(

[tbagrocks]

Any thoughts on a Quaddie TBag? I am looking at 2,9,13 - 1,10,13 - 2,5,10 - 1,8....whoo hoo  >:(

Looks a toughy but here goes :P

Race 6, the Derby    Race 7                Race 8                                  Race 9
1. It's a Dunny,        1. Streama          6. Howmuchdoyouloveme       4. Fawkner
4. Super Cool           6. Pear Tart           also                                   5. Free Wheeling
  also                        also                  2 and 3
3 and 5                   2.

That should do me but probably need those four in the Derby but it is for young developing 3yr olds over a massive 2500m so any bolter could come from the clouds, be wary, also there was a big tip for No 8. Electric Fusion, but for me those top four look the class without knowing much at all about those who only raced 3-4 times against weeker company!

[kilbluff1985]

so who do you like better tbags

Super Cool or Hvasstan for the win?

[tbagrocks]

Real tough, tempted to say Super Cool but that could be my emotions as I rode for Kav :o I think I'll get on Hva!

[Windigo]

Glen Boss in good form. Don't think any of the outside runners stand much of a chance I don't think.  :-\

Wouldn't mind a boxed trifecta with Deel, Super Cool & Hvasstan.

Looking over the field none of the runners have raced at 2500 so anything could happen.  :o

First race in 4 minutes, tipping Al Aneed. Proverb, Tatra all up there.

Can never right off a horse ridden by Williams either.  :o

Roughie is Pronto Pronto.

[BratPack]

I think Electric Fusion will be the spoiler. Don't ask me why but I liked its run in the Robinson

[Windigo]

Bloody Bart.  :P