2013 M/F research

[Scrads]

OK so everyone has been doing some guesswork at who will be DPP next season, so I have compiled a few stats from what has happened in the past which has resulted in M/F status for players.

In 2010: there were 47 players who kicked a total of 25 goals or more for the season.

2 of those players did not get Forward eligibility in 2011: Ablett who was 15th with 44.26 from 24 games and Beams who was 43rd with 26.32 from 25 games.

In 2011: there were 56 players who kicked a total of 25 goals or more for the season.

3 of those players did not get Forward eligibility in 2012: Swan who was 27th with 32.23 from 24 games, Ryder who was 46th with 27.15 from 23 games and Bartel who was 49th with 26.6 from 24.

So the trend is only 4.85% of players who kick at least 25 goals in a season miss out on forward eligibility.

Swan and Ablett probably only missed out because of being so premium it would be detrimental to have them available as forwards. Bartel whilst he kicked 26 goals only kicked 6 behinds so a normal rate of conversion would have had him only kick roughly 18-20 goals.

So, translating that to 2012 goals and 2013 eligibility, here is a list of the players who look like they could be on track for over 25 goals this season and are also notable/relevant (but not obvious forwards, like franklin or betts):

12th, Lewis Jetta, 39.15 from 18 games
32nd, Jordan Lewis, 26.10 from 17 games
33rd, Daniel Merrett, 26.13 from 19 games
36th, Dean Cox, 25.12 from 19 games
38th, Harley Bennell, 25.15 from 19 games
45th, Dayne Beams, 23.11 from 17 games
50th, Kieran Jack, 22.10 from 19 games
52nd, Dustin Martin, 22.22 from 17 games
53rd, Trent Cotchin, 21.10 from 19 games

And here are some stats on players who are being speculated on being M/F eligible next year:

67th, Dale Thomas, 19.8 from 14 games
77th, Sam Blease, 17.10 from 13 games (for you PB hahaha)
82nd, Tom Rockliff, 17.11 from 19 games
86th, Luke Shuey, 16.14 from 16 games
88th, Chris Masten, 16.7 from 19 games
98th, Jack Steven, 15.8 from 18 games

Also, some 2011 stats for the 2012 M/Fs who have slightly-dubious Forward eligibility that we can compare with:

Nathan Fyfe, 18.14 in 21 games
Mitch Robinson, 9.18 in 21 games
Jordan Lewis, 9.8 in 19 games
Dustin Martin, 33.14 in 22 games
Dayne Beams, 21.8 in 14 games
Steele Sidebottom, 23.12 in 22 games
Patrick Dangerfield, 23.13 in 22 games
David Zaharakis, 31.17 in 22 games

What this means:

Well personally I would say this shows a bit of unpredictability in the way CD choose where to make players forward eligible. Lewis and Robinson have shown us that players dont need to kick lots of goals to be eligible and players like Ryder and Bartel have shown us that even of you do, it is no certianty (especially when you have an elite average). I would think that when making the final decision, it is more based on where the player actually plays in games rather than goals scored.

*Please note, these stats that are provided for total goals only, I haven't really looked into average goals/average scoring shots per game which might be a bit more accurate and decisive.

** If you have a request about a players 2012 stats then just ask and I will update the 2012 players section.

[LaHug]

Really interesting stuff, Scrads.
I know, as a Richmond fan, that I've seen Dusty, Cotchin and Deledio all rotating through the forward line as an option out of the goal square when they're resting from the midfield. I could see Martin being a M/F again (although not a certainty) but I don't think CD would ever considering Cotch and Lids there, even though they play a fair bit forward (at least from what I've seen).
I personally think Cox should be but won't be.
Bennell and Beams are, in my book, very unlikely to be anything but pure mids.
Love the work though.

[Fireballz]

I like the write-up scards good work mate! But they'd probably take into consideration the time spent in the forward line as well. Jetta's kicking heaps of goals but he rarely plays as a forward and most of his goals come from running forward from the centre (Similar to Dangerfield).
Not sure how you'd get stats on this unless you calculate marks in fwd 50 or if stats are recorded on actual game time in the fwd half or fwd 50. Beams and Swan are very similar in the way they creep foward and get on the scoreboard so it'd be unlikely that they are both mid/fwd next year (Beams will probably lose his DPP).

[Zombie2.5]

Don't think any super-premo's will get DPP's..
They probably take into account, time in forward line + goals, then decide if they are too good of a mid to be in the fwd line.


But good write-up and interesting stats there.

[Mr.Craig]

I suspect they give more weight to heat maps rather than goals kicked but as those stats show it can be a good indicator.

[Cicjose]

i still think there are far too many players with DPP

[Scrads]

Have tried looking for stats in areas of the ground but cant find any. Also Inside 50s aren't very useful as they are dominated by mids.

[Fireballz]

Have tried looking for stats in areas of the ground but cant find any. Also Inside 50s aren't very useful as they are dominated by mids.

Marks inside 50 would be a good indicator for tall/medium sized players but maybe not for the short fellas (ie; milne, mcglynn,etc) ...

[DT-SC]

its not how many goals are kicked, it's where on the ground they gather their most statictics (kicks, hballs, tackles, pressure acts, 1%,  etc..) and their percentage of game time in a specific area that determines where they are positioned in DT
there are obvious exclusions like Gazza who probably gets 65ish% of his touches in the back half but no way he'd get DPP because he doesn't start there, just floats back doing ALL the work

[JamSainter]

its not how many goals are kicked, it's where on the ground they gather their most statictics (kicks, hballs, tackles, pressure acts, 1%,  etc..) and their percentage of game time in a specific area that determines where they are positioned in DT
there are obvious exclusions like Gazza who probably gets 65ish% of his touches in the back half but no way he'd get DPP because he doesn't start there, just floats back doing ALL the work

You just contradicted yourself! If Gazza gets the majority of his possessions in the back half then he should, in theory, be a DEF/MID. But things don't work out in practice  :(

[DT-SC]

its not how many goals are kicked, it's where on the ground they gather their most statictics (kicks, hballs, tackles, pressure acts, 1%,  etc..) and their percentage of game time in a specific area that determines where they are positioned in DT
there are obvious exclusions like Gazza who probably gets 65ish% of his touches in the back half but no way he'd get DPP because he doesn't start there, just floats back doing ALL the work

You just contradicted yourself! If Gazza gets the majority of his possessions in the back half then he should, in theory, be a DEF/MID. But things don't work out in practice  :(

one can dream

[Justin Bieber]

Yeah even if they don't kick the goals, they are playing up forward none the less. Really didn't think Lewis would get DPP this year, but Robbo looked a lock. He plays a lot up forward this year as well so expect him to be a DPP once again.

Someone like Cox plays like 50% of the game up forward and others like Beams doesn't play up there much, but just push forward from packs etc. I do see Sidey, Beams, Lewis and Dangerfield losing DPP, but players like Robbo, Bennell, Martin keeping DPP.

I see it intersting that you mention Cotchin. I have really watched him play closely recently, and is moved up forward a lot. Picken tried to follow him, but couldn't so Talia or Hargrave were forced to have a crack on him. But I doubt he will be getting DPP just because he will be a super prem and he will be a 100% lock if given DPP. I think they also put into price into prospective. Swan or Ablett averaging 130 as DPP, is silly as they are guaranteed to follow that the following year and means everyone will jump on them.

I see giving a really high averaging player DPP being silly. They cannot afford to give you the top players DPP. So I think cost and averages has something to do with it as well..

If you realised what did Beams average last year? 100. Now 115. That's a big jump and a lot of money that you will be using on a forward.