LaHug's Captains Round 20 - NEW TOP 5!

[LaHug]

Hey guys, I have a Twitter now. Please follow it for hopefully more frequent updates. You can always ask questions and voice your opinions there! https://twitter.com/LaHugDT

Hey guys,
Sorry about the lack of last week, was in bed with tonsillitis and not up to doing any thinking. To make matters worse, I have just broken my foot (today) so am pretty grumpy. Sadly, there are not team summaries this week as my spreadsheet has fallen a bit behind. I'll catch it up during half times over the weekend ;). If you appreciate my work, why not reward me with a little vote in the Personality of the Year Award? http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,45929.0.html

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. On top of this, I look at each team's tons given up over the last 3 weeks. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

The facts:

Selwood
Last 3: 125, 113, 95 (111 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 107, 103, 86 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 114, 103, 87 (101 avg)

Thompson
Last 3: 80, 99, 99 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 65, 154, 143 (121 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 80, 99, 90 (90 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 130, 152, 143 (142 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 106 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 152, 104, 148 (135 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 119, 113, 147 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 63, 90 (77 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 63 (63 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 84, 109, 102 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 88, 128, 110 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 119, 73, 63 (85 avg)

Deledio
Last 3: 126, 99, 103 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 99, 75, 56 (77 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 103, 105 (102 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 115, 94, 82 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 115, 105, 97 (106 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 84, 108, 89 (94 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 115, 108, 121 (115 avg)
Last 3 against North: 110, 98, 120 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 108, 121, 82 (104 avg)

The thoughts:

Selwood
Joel has hit some DT form since his by and his last two weeks have been especially nice. Three 130+ scores this season show he has a captain-worthy ceiling but it's his consistency that people really have him for. He has a decent record against the Eagles and a decent one at Subiaco but it's decent, not spectacular. Still, Geelong's form and the importance of this game to get a home final means I like Joel this week. Maybe not captain though. Prediction - 115

Thompson
Scott Thompson against the Mark Harvey Dockers had 154 and 143, showing absolute dominance over his opponent. Against the Ross Lyon Dockers, he was contained by Crowley for a dismal 65. This is before we mention his horrendous DT form of late. Not liking the chances of a good score this week. Prediction - 75

Ablett
If you don't have him, get him. If you do have him, make him your captain. If you really can't get him or want to be silly and go for someone else, read the rest of this article. Prediction - 135

Beams
He didn't play the Swans last year and wasn't very good in 2010. That being said, his recent form puts him amongst the elites of the DT competition with on the suspended Swan and the on fire GAJ a level above him. This week, I wouldn't take the risk against a Sydney side that is playing exceptionally well but he's *probably* good for a decent ton. The two games without Dane Swan were a 132 and 101 so Beams will likely step up again without the DT Pig. Prediction - 110

Mitchell
Yet another premium that doesn't look so flash for this week, Mitchell has been unusually poor at Aurora this year and doesn't have an amazing record against the Power. Port are in shocking form which will help Mitchell but he'll likely get the Kornes tag and it may trouble him. Prediction - 95

Deledio
The best back in the competition and in great form since the break, Deledio comes up against a pretty poor team but a team that he has struggled against in the past. I'm not sure where to lean with him this week but I'm going to guess decent because of the MCG factor. Prediction - 105

Boyd
Boyd plays alright against the Tigers but hasn't played at the MCG since before his bye. It is definitely not his preferred ground; he rarely scores over 100 there, let alone a score worth making your captain. Sorry Boyd owners! Prediction - 95

Watson
Those who have the better DT Bomber will be glad to see some nice stats for him. The 82 is his only sub 100 score at Etihad this year and the 108 is his only other score under 110. In other words, he loves it under the roof! A whole lot of 120 scores fill his scoresheet against the Roos and, with his great form this season, combined with the importance of the game, I'm expecting another one (or slightly better). Prediction - 125

The verdict:

1. Ablett (135)
2. Waters (130)
3. Watson (125)
4. Selwood (115)
5. Cotchin (115)

Requests:

Franklin - Requested by KoopKicka
Last 3: 72, 115, 122 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 99, 142, 79 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 204, 81, 71 (119 avg)

Having missed the last 4 games, you would have to be a massive gambler to take a punt on Buddy this week. If fit, I'd feel a lot better about him. Last time he played at Aurora, he kicked approximately 1 million goals (close enough) and scored a DT record with 204 points. He's also kicked a bag against the Power before. Let's face it, Port Adelaide are in turmoil and if there was going to be a week for a key forward to kick 10+ goals, this would be it. If you think he's 100% and really don't want to take a safer option with GAJ, he's definitely an option. Prediction - 90 (but potential for 150) NOT PLAYING!

O'Keefe - Requested by Colliwobblers
Last 3: 93, 131, 90 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 113, 71, 73 (86 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 125, 58, 113 (99 avg)

ROK has been a great pick up for coaches this year and his recent form has been serviceable. His record against the Pies is pretty up and down but he did have a 149 against them in 2009. ANZ is a ground he likes as well! Collingwood haven't been giving up many (or really any) big scores recently so I don't expect anything worthy of the big C. Prediction - 95

McVeigh - Requested by Colliwobblers
Last 3: 102, 93, 107 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 105, 90, 89 (95 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 149, 73, 92 (105 avg)

McVeigh has been a quiet achiever on the DT front recently with two scores of 140+ after the bye going basically unnoticed. However, we can't get too excited about that because they were in comfortable wins against the Lions and Giants. He only averages 92 and he's unlikely to go big against the Pies. Prediction - 90

Jack - Requested by Colliwobblers
Last 3: 97, 125, 93 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 23, 87, 54 (55 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 127, 115, 53 (98 avg)

The best Swan in DT this year, Jack comes up against his worst opponent in Collingwood. Last year, he was injured in the second quarter which severely affected his scoring but, even before that, he hasn't played well against the Pies. Those two good scores at ANZ were against GWS which makes that ground look more favourable than it is. Still, his recent form is nice which leads me to believe he could break his Collingwood drought. Prediction - 100

Dangerfield - Requested by tbagrocks
Last 3: 130, 111, 118 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 110, 89, 87 (95 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 130, 118, 89 (112 avg)

Three good scores in a row and Danger is looking like a true premium DTer. His record at AAMI is pretty decent and against the Dockers isn't bad either. Assuming he can avoid the Crowley tag (Thompson should get it), he may well rack it up! Thanks tbagrocks for suggesting a guy to round out my top 5 (only for him to be knocked out by Cotch). Prediction - 110

Pendlebury - Requested by stew42
Last 3: 92, 114, 142 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 107, 79, 74 (87 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 107, 79, 0 (62 avg)

Pendles had been doing magnificently since his return from injury until a quiet 92 last week against the Saints. Still, his form looks pretty good and you'd be happy if you picked him up at bottom price. This week, however, he comes across an opponent that he (along with many others) finds it difficult to score against. Could still be ok but will be tough. Prediction - 100

Goddard - Requested by Chelskiman
Last 3: 99, 120, 76 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 58, 122, 122 (101 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 88, 58 (82 avg)

It's been a sub par year for Goddard this year but his last three isn't looking that bad. He has a good record against the Dees but a McKenzie tag shut him down earlier this year. If you choose to ignore that because of a massive form slump (why not?) then you have 122, 122, 107, 132, 116, 108 going back to 2007. Clearly it's a team he loves to play so his owners (i.e. more than half of the competition) should have something to smile about. Still, form issues scare me. Prediction - 110

Cotchin - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 103, 118, 101 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 79, 99, 70 (83 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 118, 101, 106 (108 avg)

Before this season, there were 5 other teams that Cotchy hadn't ever tonned up against. 4 of them he scored tons on this year (Adelaide, Carlton, Hawthorn, Melbourne, and 1 he didn't (St. Kilda). With the Bulldogs being that final team that he hadn't yet scored a ton on, I'm going to go ahead and ignore his scores against the Dogs. That leaves his recent form of 6 straight tons (3 over 110) and 8 of 10 at the MCG this year (4 of his last 6 over 110 there). Prediction - 115

Thomas - Requested by Windigo
Last 3: 107, 80, 76 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 83, 100, 78 (87 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 83, 100, 71 (85 avg)

In the two games Dane Swan missed this year, Daisy scored 124 and 133. This sounds promising but that's about all he's got going for him. As with so many other premiums, the Swans cause him trouble and that 100 is his only career ton on them in 9 games. He's also only tonned up 5 times from 13 games this year. Even taking in the no Great Dane factor, I can't assure a ton, let alone a captain score. Prediction - 90

Grigg - Requested by elephants
Last 3: 115, 87, 74 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 104, 69 (87 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 87, 74, 120 (94 avg)

Definitely not what you would call consistent, Grigg has matched great scores with poor scores to build a healthy 99 average for the season. He's only played the Bulldogs twice with his game as a Tiger, last year, the better of the two. He has been pretty decent at the MCG but it's not like the ground is a huge advantage or disadvantage. His scores have seemed to be independent of the opponent's skill level this season which makes the fact that the Bulldogs are crap neither an advantage or disadvantage. Very tough to predict what this guy will do but I'll take a punt. Prediction - 95

Waters - Requested by Affliction
Last 3: 92, 124, 70 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 140, 105, 155 (133 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 92, 124, 98 (105 avg)

Thank you for finding this one, Affliction!!! Waters may not be in phenomenal form but he's been doing alright. He's also pretty good at his home ground so that box is checked. Here's where it gets good though. He is AWESOME against the Cats. 5 games in his career against them and, other than his first one in 2006, he's had 140, 105, 155 and 130. It's nice when you see good scores against an opponent but when they're consistently big, that's a sign of good things! Prediction - 130

Swallow - Requested by elephants
Last 3: 93, 160, 89 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 86, 113, 160 (120 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 93, 160, 92 (115 avg)

Another guy that's been up and down but, since the bye, he has had three scores above 130 in eight games. Definitely potential for something huge but very risky and I wouldn't take the gamble. Prediction - 110

Rioli - Requested by KoopKicka
Last 3: 94, 129, 89 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 95, 151, 86 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 82, 91, 68 (80 avg)

The Power are crap and Rioli will be a key target with Buddy still out so there's a good chance he'll kick a few. He's only had one big game with Buddy out so far which means it may not be a factor. Only three tons so far this year and none of them at Launceston. The fact that the opponent is so poor is the only thing going for him. Prediction - 95

Hayes - Requested by blah128
Last 3: 109, 130, 76 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 115, 105, 127 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 109, 100, 115 (108 avg)

Not many coaches would have him but, if you do, he might actually be worth a look. He has 4 tons in his last 4 games going back to 2009. He also has 3 of 3 tons at the MCG this year and 9 of his last 10 going back to 2008. Probably not looking at a big score but I'd feel safe betting on something above the 100 mark. Prediction - 110

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments or via Twitter at https://twitter.com/LaHugDT

[KoopKicka]

Great work as always LH!

Buddy Franklin?

[Colliwobblers]

you should post up each week what your predictions were last week and what each actually scored....

I was always going Ablett this week against GWS over Swan Vs Sydney, now that decision is a lot easier  >:(

nice write up again mate, Collingwood don't tag so worth having a look at the big 3 at the Swans for your 5th

ROK, McVEIGH, JACK, I think Kennedy has gone off the boil for whatever reason, but you can bet a couple of Swans mids will have a big game if thier ruck can compete with Jolly, Swan out will only help!

[tbagrocks]

great to see you back and firing LaHug

I'm reconing Paddy will have a great game, he's flying atm I think if I do go Ablett, Dangerman will be vice, or vice-versa

Paddy Dangerman please

[LaHug]

Great work as always LH!

Buddy Franklin?

Super crazy gamble but had a look ;)

I'll have a look at other requests in the morning. Day off and can't walk so have nothing better to do!

[elephants]

Think I'll go Sammy Mitchell - Unique and due for a big one :)

[Ziplock]

I'm going ablett. Giants major ball winners in greene and ward are out, even with giles dominating the ruck he's going to get an absolute flower load of possessions. I'd consider putting money on a 55 disposal record :P

[stew42]

How about Pendles mate?

[Ricochet]

I'm going ablett. Giants major ball winners in greene and ward are out, even with giles dominating the ruck he's going to get an absolute flower load of possessions. I'd consider putting money on a 55 disposal record :P

+1 can't go past GAJ
Lids should go massive too. Bullies midfield is really struggling

[Chelskiman]

How about Pendles mate?

Yeah, I wouldn't mind having a look at Pendles too.  Really, I'm just looking for a good VC this week as there's no way I'm not going Ablett.

[LaHug]

I've done all of those requests now (tiring stuff!) and tbagrocks suggested the player I've decided will round out my top 5!

[KoopKicka]

Great work as always LH!

Buddy Franklin?

Super crazy gamble but had a look ;)

I'll have a look at other requests in the morning. Day off and can't walk so have nothing better to do!

Cheers as always LH! :)

[Chelskiman]

Goddard?

If you take out his last game against them (58) he has scored 6 tons in a row, with a couple of decent ones (122, 122, 132).  Has looked ok in the past two weeks as well.

[PowerBug]

Got all of the top 5. :-\ haven't taken the C off Watson since i got him :-\ Be stupid not to go Ablett vs GWS though.

[LF]

Could you do Cotchin for me please LaHug
Thank you :)