Leuenberger out for season! Cheap for next year?

[Jroo]

Brisbane Lions ruckman Matthew Leuenberger will turn his focus towards preparing for the 2013 AFL Season after a return to action this year was ruled out by the Club.

Leuenberger, 23, has been on the sidelines since Round 3 with a partial tear to his Achilles.
http://www.lions.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/5085/newsid/143734/default.aspx

This should mean he will be a lot cheaper for next year?
Will you consider him for next year?

[korza]

* JR

HE will be the first name i click on come next year.

[Boomz]

Definitely if he gets through the pre-season alright.

[MLS]

Definitely if he gets through the pre-season alright.

I think a solid preseason is the key. What do we think he will be priced at? Ave 70ish this year

[tbagrocks]

Is he prone like Hmac and Mummy, I'll consider, and be wary! Chances of Sandi being a bargain ;)

[Ringo]

Berger played all games in 2010 and 2011 so would not call him injury prone. With a solid pre season he will be one of the first rucks pick.  Will more than likely be mid priced and well worth it.

[LF]

Is he prone like Hmac and Mummy, I'll consider, and be wary! Chances of Sandi being a bargain ;)

Steering well clear of Sandi he has joined the injury prone brigade now.

[Jroo]

Had the Berger in my team all pre season till I heard that he had achillies problems and went for Mumford insted  ::) But if he has a good pre season will be in my team 10000%  ;D

[JamSainter]

LOCK. No Doubt about it for me. Can average 100 easy. Bargain alongside Sam Jacobs my rucks will be unstoppable next year!
He should be priced at a 20-30% discount as he has only played 2 or 3 games. So my estimate is 370-405k for the start of 2013

[m1tch robo]

I don't know exactly how pricing works but I'm pretty sure it's based on a players average from year before multiplied by a magic number. Then discounts are applied. This year the MN was around $5k thus, if it's the same he should be priced at around $275k before any discounts. If he received 20% that'd see him at around $220k. Super value if he's fit!

[Adamant]

Locked in.
Luenberger + Jacobs/McEvoy combo for me.

[c4v3m4n]

LOCK. No Doubt about it for me. Can average 100 easy. Bargain alongside Sam Jacobs my rucks will be unstoppable next year!
He should be priced at a 20-30% discount as he has only played 2 or 3 games. So my estimate is 370-405k for the start of 2013

I don't know exactly how pricing works but I'm pretty sure it's based on a players average from year before multiplied by a magic number. Then discounts are applied. This year the MN was around $5k thus, if it's the same he should be priced at around $275k before any discounts. If he received 20% that'd see him at around $220k. Super value if he's fit!

A lesson for all you youngsters on pricing.

At the start of the year, prices are calculated by multiplying a "Magic Number' by the previous years average. The magic number basically tells us how much a point is worth. The magic number changes ever year depending on SC squad sizes, the amount of players in the AFL etc etc etc but for the example we'll use this years magic number.

Now at the start of this year, the Magic Number was ~5420. (To calculate the magic number, simply divide the starting price of  player by their average last year. For example Harley Bennell started the year at $371,100 and his 2011 average was 68.6...371,100 divided by 68.6 equals ~5420). Still with me? Right.

Since Leuenberger has played his last match for the year, his average will stay unchanged at 70.3.

So, multiply this years average of 70.3 by our next years magic number of 5420 and we get $381026.

Now, if player plays 10 games or less due to injury, then they are entitled to a price discount. Last year a player that played only 3 games (like Leuenberger) received a 30% discount in price. There are instances like Lenny Hayes where they'll only give him a minimum 10% discount (I cant remember why this happened).

So anyway, we now take that $381,026 and multiply it by 0.7 (30% off) and we arrive at Leuenburger's approximate price for next year...

...$266,700! (If they give him the minimum discount, he'll be $342,900)

Hopefully that makes sense. If it doesn't, just wait until next year and you'll see. ;)

Anyhow, like Lake and Porplyzia this year, he'll be one of the most popular picks next year and I'm definitely on board. ;D

[Colliwobblers]

beautifuly articulated Caveman....

and a big YES to a healthy full pre-season sub $400K burger

and a big NO to Spudilands, not even with a full preseason or at sub $100K no way no how

I'm almost assured to start 2 of Burger, Jacobs, Maric for DT and throw nicnat into the mix for SC but maybe not Maric....

Cox playing fwd so much when jkennedy is back is a worry, mumford has back issues goldy will have hmac issues....

can't trust ryder the bombers are a soft tissue minefield

all rucks are a bit risky, big boddies getting bashed around week in week out...

[devize]

Good write up caveman, Leuey is going to be my first lock of the year for sure. Going to be extremely cheap.

[alex1234]

for sure, definate for next year