Ellis for Fisher??

[agups]

Need to do two more upgrades in my DEF. Fisher is mighty cheap this week but I'm not sure about the trade. He's played well the last couple of games and has a favorable finals draw, but Watters doesn't really use him in the same way that Lyon did.
Ellis has also done well recently but has a BE of 77 this week and could have reached his peak at 311k.

If i did do this trade, i'd be using Fisher as a D7 for the rest of the year. My other upgrade will be either Sam Shaw or Smedts later on.

The big point is that I've made it to finals in all my leagues and regardless of a win or loss this week i can't change positions on my ladder, meaning i pretty much am considering this trade for my games during finals.

The other option is to just hold for now and not trade, or keep Ellis as a D7 (which i think most won't plan to)
I've included both players' finals draw in the poll too.

Let me know what you think. Good? Bad? Stay away from Fisher or jump onto him at his bargain price?

Thanks

[Fireballz]

Can you find a way to get Suckling in? If you're low on trades then keep Ellis coz someone will get rested or injured soon, but if you have 3 or so remaining then try and get Suckling in this week before his price goes up.

[Spinking]

Show us the rest of your defence.  Fisher may be a great buy at that price, and could be a steal if he can average 90 for the remaining games, but as you say Watters has him playing a different role this season that hasn't been as beneficial to DT scores.

[Tominator]

the main reason Fisher is at $289K is because he won't average much more than 70-75 for the rest of the year. Scott Watters has brought a less-defensive-orientated game plan and - coupled with the loss of Zac Dawson and a shortage of key defenders/talls - that has meant Fisher has had to relinquish his loose role of Half-Back and has had to take on the big men, as we saw against Brisbane when he scored 18 and shut down Jonathon Brown a couple of weeks ago

His scoring ability is still there - he scored 37 in a QTR against Sydney, and then junked it up in Q4 against the Dogs last week - but his role may change from week-to-week. I reckon he won't score too well against Geelong but should dominate the Dees and Giants; Carlton he hasn't done well against in the past though.

It's a good trade if you are happy with a 75-average from here on in :)

[agups]

Can you find a way to get Suckling in? If you're low on trades then keep Ellis coz someone will get rested or injured soon, but if you have 3 or so remaining then try and get Suckling in this week before his price goes up.

I have 3 trades, $300k remaining. Two for defense upgrades and one for LTIs/general soreness. The only way i can get Suckling in is if I trade Ellis because Smedts and Shaw havent made enough cash for me yet and have to potential to make more too.

Another thing is that Fisher could average the same as Suckling for the rest of the year for $80k less. Though it's unlikely. I still don't mind if he scores 10-15pts less than Suckling every round, as long as he hits at least 75ish every week. I'd say that's good output from a D7.

Show us the rest of your defence.  Fisher may be a great buy at that price, and could be a steal if he can average 90 for the remaining games, but as you say Watters has him playing a different role this season that hasn't been as beneficial to DT scores.

My defence is Deledio, Goddard, M. Johnson, Carrazzo, Waters, Ellis, Sam Shaw (Smedts, Boumann). I want to get Scotland in there hopefully, so ideally during finals my defence would be Deledio, Goddard, M. Johnson, Carrazzo, Waters, Scotland, Fisher (Smedts, Boumann).

The only reason I'm considering Fisher is because he has a pretty decent finals draw, has proven that he is a DT-friendly player in the past and is super cheap.

the main reason Fisher is at $289K is because he won't average much more than 70-75 for the rest of the year. Scott Watters has brought a less-defensive-orientated game plan and - coupled with the loss of Zac Dawson and a shortage of key defenders/talls - that has meant Fisher has had to relinquish his loose role of Half-Back and has had to take on the big men, as we saw against Brisbane when he scored 18 and shut down Jonathon Brown a couple of weeks ago

His scoring ability is still there - he scored 37 in a QTR against Sydney, and then junked it up in Q4 against the Dogs last week - but his role may change from week-to-week. I reckon he won't score too well against Geelong but should dominate the Dees and Giants; Carlton he hasn't done well against in the past though.

It's a good trade if you are happy with a 75-average from here on in :)

Really good point. Though like i said above if he can average 75+, get at least 75 in the game against Carlton and Geelong and maybe 85+ against the Dees and Giants I'd say that's a pretty good buy. His scoring ability is definitely there but Watters is playing him differently. Saints also have a top 8 spot on the line so things might change up, that last game against Carlton could be for 8th spot so I expect both teams to come out firing.
I also don't have enough cash to do two upgrades to say Scotland and Birchall, so if Fisher can score more than Ellis or Sam Shaw it's a good deal.

Thanks for all your input guys, really helping me a lot.

[Ajax22]

If you have 300k in the bank you can easily get someone better than Fisher. If you're worried about the cash just grab Suckling (for Ellis). But you could probably just grab Scotland this week and wait for another price drop the next week from Birchall before getting him in for one of your other rooks. Seriously just don't get Fisher, he's an option for the desperate and that's it.

Edit: just looked at prices and it seems you should easily have enough cash to go Ellis and Smedts to Scotland and Birchall this week, or even next week really if you wanted

[Tominator]

how many trades do you have left ?

Here are some stats on Fisher

      -   He averages 95.4 against Collingwood in 16 games, and has gone huge twice with a 143 in Rd 16 2010 and a 158 in the 2009 QF
      -   He averages 69.7 against Melbourne in 12 games
      -   He averages 82.6 against Geelong in 16 games, including 120 in Rd 13 2011
      -   He has never played GWS but could get Chad Cornes on him (who shut him down for Port Adelaide last year)

Cannot find his overall stats on Carlton but he did get a 55 on them in Rd 12 2009, a 37 in Rd 7 2010, and a 41 in Rd 24 2011. Not good and cops a defensive-forward tag from Denis Armfield or Bret Thornton

Do not be surprised if he gets tagged by them in their cut-throat clash


Get him if you are willing to risk it but yeah if you can afford a Suckling or a Scotland by double trading or something then that is the safer option IMO

[agups]

If you have 300k in the bank you can easily get someone better than Fisher. If you're worried about the cash just grab Suckling (for Ellis). But you could probably just grab Scotland this week and wait for another price drop the next week from Birchall before getting him in for one of your other rooks. Seriously just don't get Fisher, he's an option for the desperate and that's it.

Edit: just looked at prices and it seems you should easily have enough cash to go Ellis and Smedts to Scotland and Birchall this week, or even next week really if you wanted

The reason I'm saying I don't have enough cash is because I want to pull a Hayes > Swan or Thompson > Swan (if he gets rested) in the last two weeks of finals. Which means I need to have at least 150-200k left over in my salary cap.

If i get Suckling this week, and then Scotland in a week or two for Smedts then i should have around 100k. Which means i would be around 30-40k short of Swan in the best possible scenario (meaning hayes or thompson would maintain their price and swan will stay around 600k). So that scenario doesn't really play out how I want to.

how many trades do you have left ?

Here are some stats on Fisher

      -   He averages 95.4 against Collingwood in 16 games, and has gone huge twice with a 143 in Rd 16 2010 and a 158 in the 2009 QF
      -   He averages 69.7 against Melbourne in 12 games
      -   He averages 82.6 against Geelong in 16 games, including 120 in Rd 13 2011
      -   He has never played GWS but could get Chad Cornes on him (who shut him down for Port Adelaide last year)

Cannot find his overall stats on Carlton but he did get a 55 on them in Rd 12 2009, a 37 in Rd 7 2010, and a 41 in Rd 24 2011. Not good and cops a defensive-forward tag from Denis Armfield or Bret Thornton

Do not be surprised if he gets tagged by them in their cut-throat clash


Get him if you are willing to risk it but yeah if you can afford a Suckling or a Scotland by double trading or something then that is the safer option IMO

Wow great research. Not great against Carlton and surprisingly not great against the Dees too.

At the moment I'm thinking of holding. Ellis has improved over the last few weeks so he should stay around the same price, I could always upgrade him later on. Fisher just seems a bit of a risk that could pay off brilliantly but has the potential to be disastrous also.

[agups]

Basically if i can do two defence upgrades for a combined total of around $720k MAX, I'll consider that option greatly.
I want to keep around 150k for a Hayes > Swan upgrade or an LTI/withdrawal.

EDIT: Just did some maths, Ellis > Suckling leaves me with enough cash to get a defender later on around 380k. Which can be someone like Heppell or Heath Shaw. Which would obviously mean that I skip out on Scotland if i get Suckling in. This should give me enough money to get Swan in later on too for Hayes.

So pretty much:
Scotland + Fisher
OR
Suckling + Heath Shaw/Heppell?

[Ajax22]

Basically if i can do two defence upgrades for a combined total of around $720k MAX, I'll consider that option greatly.
I want to keep around 150k for a Hayes > Swan upgrade or an LTI/withdrawal.

EDIT: Just did some maths, Ellis > Suckling leaves me with enough cash to get a defender later on around 380k. Which can be someone like Heppell or Heath Shaw. Which would obviously mean that I skip out on Scotland if i get Suckling in. This should give me enough money to get Swan in later on too for Hayes.

So pretty much:
Scotland + Fisher
OR
Suckling + Heath Shaw/Heppell?

Easily the Suckling option. If Birchall drops a bit more in price then you can add him to the mix with Shaw and Heppell as well

[agups]

Yeah i'm heading towards the Suckling option. Anyone reckon he could get rested for any of those finals games?

[Ajax22]

Yeah i'm heading towards the Suckling option. Anyone reckon he could get rested for any of those finals games?

Possible but if he does just play Shaw for that week. If Suckers does play them all then there could be some very big scores in there