LaHug's Captains Round 18

[LaHug]

Hey guys, I have a Twitter now. Please follow it for hopefully more frequent updates. You can always ask questions and voice your opinions there! https://twitter.com/LaHugDT

Hey guys,
Uni is back but that won't stop me. Get your weekly dose of captain brilliance! If you appreciate my work, why not reward me with a little vote in the Personality of the Year Award? http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,45929.0.html

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. On top of this, I look at each team's tons given up over the last 3 weeks. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

Team summaries:

Adelaide
Tons per game: 1.3
Top scores: 134 Ward, 121 Greene, 110 Chaplin

Brisbane
Tons per game: 2.7
Top scores: 143 Ablett, 141 McVeigh, 137 Goodes

Carlton
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 113 Petrie, 109 Griffen, 105 Swan

Collingwood
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 137 S. Johnson, 130 Kelly, 114 Carrazzo

Essendon
Tons per game: 2.7
Top scores: 135 N. Riewoldt, 120 Mackie, 112 Duncan

Fremantle
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 133 Boyd, 122 Minson, 118 S. Martin

Geelong
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 137 Beams, 121 Watson, 117 Pendlebury

Gold Coast
Tons per game: 4.3
Top scores: 141 Deledio, 137 Cotchin, 132 Chapman, 128 Kelly

GWS
Tons per game: 6.7
Top scores: 159 Rioli, 139 Roughead, 126 Vince, 122 Suckling, 122 Jacobs, 121 Wright, 120 Shiels, 120 Pavlich

Hawthorn
Tons per game: 2.7
Top scores: 165 Swan, 147 Beams, 142 Pendlebury, 131 Boyd, 125 Greene

Melbourne
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 120 Grigg, 117 Tuck, 111 Mundy

North
Tons per game: 4
Top scores: 148 Cox, 147 Judd, 141 Priddis, 123 Carrazzo

Port Adelaide
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 135 Grimes, 124 Watson, 122 Jacobs, 120 Henderson

Richmond
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 128 Ablett, 128 Petrie, 113 Anthony

St. Kilda
Tons per game: 1.3
Top scores: 113 Zorko, 111 Hudson, 107 McVeigh

Sydney
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 140 Zorko, 119 Hanley, 116 S. Selwood

West Coast
Tons per game: 3.3
Top scores: 142 O'Keefe, 134 Swallow, 118 Dangerfield

Bulldogs
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 144 Pavlich, 125 Mitchell, 117 Whitecross

The facts:

Stanton
Last 3: 84, 85, 74 (81 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 119, 70, 127 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 84, 74, 111 (90 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 121, 124, 82 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 33, 114, 122 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 121, 82, 126 (110 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 102, 125, 106 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 128, 98, 129 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 125, 96, 103 (108 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 95, 97, 105 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 106, 84, 118 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 119, 62, 130 (104 avg)

Thompson
Last 3: 99, 110, 90 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 138, 89, 101 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 101, 74, 98 (91 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 165, 116, 105 (129 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Skoda: N/A

Pendlebury
Last 3: 142, 117, 59 (106 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Skoda: N/A

Beams
Last 3: 147, 137, 78 (121 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Skoda: N/A

Ablett
Last 3: 143, 128, 104 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 23, 127, 167 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 143, 104, 148 (132 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 82, 131, 133 (115 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 146, 143, 83 (124 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 82, 131, 132 (115 avg)

The thoughts:

Stanton
FINALLY! After a lot of disappointment for Stanton owners, I'm picking this to be his comeback week. Hawthorn are his favourite team to play by a mile with a 109 career average and scores of 119, 70, 127, 139, 147, 123 (and more tons going further back). Take out that 70 and you have a last 5 game average of 131!!! Yes, I know you can't just say "take out that 70" but it's an exciting prospect. Considering that Hawthorn gave up three scores above 140 last week, you'd have to think Stanton is a great chance to explode. If it weren't for recent form, I'd be backing him. Prediction - 130

Watson
Watson is also pretty decent against the Hawks (that 33 he was injured and then subbed at the half) but his record isn't nearly as amazing as Stanton's. The key advantage is that his form is much better with three of his last four (five of his last seven) being 120+. Again, Hawks gave up some big ones last week so expect Watson to do well. Prediction - 120

Mitchell
Mitchell has been pretty good since the break and comes across an opponent he has been fairly successful against. There are likely to be better options this week but this guy should be solid. Prediction - 115

Selwood
Selwood started his career against the Crows with three 118s and two 104s before his last two broke the trend. Mr. Consistent has scored sub 100 the last two weeks (albeit only just) and isn't really a captain option this week. Should be a solid ton though. Prediction - 105

Thompson
Scotty T has been a bit disappointing since the bye but his most recent score against the Cats is promising. That was, however, at his preferred ground of AAMI so I'm not sure how much you can take from it. Not for me this week. Prediction - 105

Swan
Collingwood have never played GWS and never at Skoda so we can only go on recent form and the fact that GWS have given up some massive scores! Swan's recent... well... year long form has been great! Averaging 130 over the year, a 165 last week, a 172 three weeks ago and some other big scores throughout the season. You'd think that the Giants are a good team for him to be big against. Prediction - 145

Pendlebury
Pendles was another Pie to take advantage of Hawthorn's DT generosity last week. He's a DT star and, now that he's 100%, should take advantage of the Giants in what I'd expect to be a very one-sided game. Prediction - 130

Beams
And the other one. Two consecutive big scores and many brilliant scores this season. He has had a couple of downers this year but don't expect this week to be one. Prediction - 135

Ablett
He's back and, with two good scores in a row, he's ready to consider against just about any opponent! Last year, he was injured early against the Swans and that severely affected his score. Before then, he had 127, 167, 141, 126, 150 against them going back to 2008. None of those scores were while he was with the Suns but that hasn't affected many trends negatively. And did I mention how good he is a Metricon? Should be very good this week. Be warned though, the Swans are in amazing form and didn't give up a single ton last week! Prediction - 135

Boyd
After three straight scores of 130+, Boyd let down those that backed him with a horrid 82. The game against the Blues showed that Boyd can be crushed by a tag and there is a little fear that the Saints will note this and let Clint Jones shut him down. If, however, this doesn't happen, Boyd is looking really good this week! Those last two against the Saints are great. Prediction - 135

The verdict:

1. Swan (145)
2. Ablett (135)
3. Boyd (135)
4. Beams (135)
5. Pendlebury (130)

Are you a gambling man? If so, Stanton (130) looks like a good POD.

Requests:

Deledio - Requested by Spinking
Last 3: 103, 141, 105 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 91, 79, 74 (81 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 103, 105, 78 (95 avg)

Lids has been in good form of late but he's not so good against the Blues. In round 1, he got the Gibbs tag but I wouldn't be surprised if he copped Carrazzo this time around. Either way, I feel Ratten will tag him and probably keep him under the big ton. Prediction - 85

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments or via Twitter at https://twitter.com/LaHugDT

[Colliwobblers]

nice work LaHug, quality thread, I got my C on auto Swan from a couple of weeks ago until the end now, but it's good to see him on top the giants have a few who can run with mids, macdonald, townsend and even adams although he is more a run with than a tagger, still i think those matchups will go to pendles then beams if they decide to go that way.

could be a big fantasy week for the pies, but then the better giants (most) got a rest and will come back fresh so who knows.

[Spinking]

Good stuff. Thanks LH.

I'll no doubt be on Swan, but could we have a look at Deledio please?

[HBTD22]

I think I'll leave my C on Boyd... surely he wouldn't have back to back bad weeks... surely :P

[LaHug]

nice work LaHug, quality thread, I got my C on auto Swan from a couple of weeks ago until the end now, but it's good to see him on top the giants have a few who can run with mids, macdonald, townsend and even adams although he is more a run with than a tagger, still i think those matchups will go to pendles then beams if they decide to go that way.

could be a big fantasy week for the pies, but then the better giants (most) got a rest and will come back fresh so who knows.

Basically why I let them round out the top 5, rather than sit above GAJ and Boyd. Still think that Beams and Pendles should smash it but I'd prefer any of the top 3.

Good stuff. Thanks LH.

I'll no doubt be on Swan, but could we have a look at Deledio please?

Will look now!

I think I'll leave my C on Boyd... surely he wouldn't have back to back bad weeks... surely :P

Should be a safe call!

[Fireballz]

Great write up LH but all I read was:
1. Swan
2. Swan
3. Swan
4. Sean (Probably a typo)
5. Swan

[LaHug]

Great write up LH but all I read was:
1. Swan
2. Swan
3. Swan
4. Sean (Probably a typo)
5. Swan

Bahaha! At least I might be useful for anyone without Swan :P

[KoopKicka]

The saints have a secondary tagger if needed in Armitage I believe, Boyd captainers should be wary of that.

Anyway, great write up as usual LH! Going Stanton this week. I have a feeling. :P

[Spinking]

The saints have a secondary tagger if needed in Armitage I believe, Boyd captainers should be wary of that.

Anyway, great write up as usual LH! Going Stanton this week. I have a feeling. :P

How did you feeling about Zorko work out last week Koop?

[KoopKicka]

The saints have a secondary tagger if needed in Armitage I believe, Boyd captainers should be wary of that.

Anyway, great write up as usual LH! Going Stanton this week. I have a feeling. :P

How did you feeling about Zorko work out last week Koop?

But... Hmmph, well hmph, umm hmph. Not my finest hour by any means. :P

[LaHug]

The saints have a secondary tagger if needed in Armitage I believe, Boyd captainers should be wary of that.

Anyway, great write up as usual LH! Going Stanton this week. I have a feeling. :P

How did you feeling about Zorko work out last week Koop?

But... Hmmph, well hmph, umm hmph. Not my finest hour by any means. :P

Have faith! I'll be making Stanton my captain in EXV but I can't say no to Swan this week.
I'd also feel immoral making a top 5 and then going in a different direction...

[LF]

I think I'll go with Swan since the C is already on him from last week the only other player I was considering was Beams.
Great write up as always LaHug

[Kellogscrunchynut]

Scared to take the C off Swan in this form.

[LaHug]

Scared to take the C off Swan in this form.

Your fear is warranted!
I really want to put the C on Stanton just to prove I have balls of steel! I captained Maric in the bye rounds for lols so I could always do something even riskier.
But there's no way you could take if off Swan if you have him.

[DT Gun]

Captain options

Swan
Pendles
Beams
Sidebottom
Goodes