LaHug's Captains Round 17

[LaHug]

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Hey guys,
Sorry this is a bit late - I have family over from America and my time is precious. I might struggle with requests but I'll do my best to get to all of them. If you appreciate my work, why not reward me with a little vote in the Personality of the Year Award? http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,45929.0.html

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. On top of this, I look at each team's tons given up over the last 3 weeks. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

Team summaries:

Adelaide
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 135 Tuck, 134 Ward, 122 Maric, 121 Greene

Brisbane
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 141 McVeigh, 137 Goodes, 118 C. Jones

Carlton
Tons per game: 2.7
Top scores: 124 Mitchell, 115 Franklin, 113 Petrie

Collingwood
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 137 S. Johnson, 130 Kelly, 120 Barlow

Essendon
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 135 N. Riewoldt, 132 Boyd, 104 Brad Ebert

Fremantle
Tons per game: 3.7
Top scores: 172 Swan, 133 Blair, 133 Boyd, 123 Jolly, 122 Minson

Geelong
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 137 Beams, 117 Pendlebury, 116 Swan

Gold Coast
Tons per game: 5.7
Top scores: 148 Shuey, 141 Deledio, 137 Cotchin, 132 Chapman, 128 Kelly, 121 Masten, 120 Cox

GWS
Tons per game: 7.7
Top scores: 159 Rioli, 149 McVeigh, 139 Roughead, 127 Jack, 126 Vince, 125 O'Keefe, 122 Suckling, 122 Jacobs, 121 Wright, 120 Shiels

Hawthorn
Tons per game: 3.3
Top scores: 131 Boyd, 125 Greene, 115 Robinson

Melbourne
Tons per game: 4.7
Top scores: 130 Brown, 127 Harwood, 120 Hanley, 120 Grigg

North
Tons per game: 4.3
Top scores: 148 Cox, 147 Judd, 141 Priddis, 123 Carrazzo, 122 Hayes, 121 Armitage

Port Adelaide
Tons per game: 2.7
Top scores: 124 Watson, 122 Jacobs, 120 Henderson

Richmond
Tons per game: 1.7
Top scores: 128 Ablett, 112 McKenzie, 105 Sylvia

St. Kilda
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 144 Swallow, 135 Adams, 129 Wells

Sydney
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 140 Zorko, 119 Hanley, 116 S. Selwood

West Coast
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 142 O'Keefe, 134 Swallow, 118 Jack

Bulldogs
Tons per game: 4.3
Top scores: 144 Pavlich, 133 Hurley, 129 Dempsey, 126 Watson, 125 Mitchell, 122 Hocking, 120 Howlett

The facts:

Selwood
Last 3: 97, 105, 119 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 90, 107, 135 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 122, 100, 106 (109 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 124, 82, 126 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 82, 76, 55 (71 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 82, 126, 131 (113 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 85, 74, 111 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 112, 73, 145 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 74, 111, 89 (91 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 116, 105, 172 (131 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 102, 122, 130 (118 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 116, 105, 172 (131 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 117, 59, 88 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 132, 103, 105 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 117, 59, 133 (103 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 137, 78, 113 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 12, 94, 89 (65 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 137, 78, 113 (109 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 125, 106, 124 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 130, 105, 137 (124 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 124, 113 (114 avg)

Thompson
Last 3: 110, 90, 128 (109 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 128, 110, 93 (110 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 90, 128, 141 (120 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 128, 104, 102 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 97, 106, 84 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 104, 148, 61 (104 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 81, 96, 119 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 143, 112, 86 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Boyd
Last 3: 131, 133, 132 (132 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 119, 142, 114 (125 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 131, 132, 70 (111 avg)

Pavlich
Last 3: 88, 144, 113 (115 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Subiaco: 144, 107, 83 (111 avg)

The thoughts:

Selwood
Mr. Consistent scored a rare sub 100 score last week but will likely bounce back with a nice ton again. He enjoys playing under the roof with 7 straight tons dating back to 2010 (in fact, his last sub 100 score there was his 90 against the Bombers). I don't see any reason to think he'll be huge but he should be serviceable. Prediction - 105

Watson
Geelong have been Watson's worst team by a country mile. He averages a dismal 64 against them over his career! However, that was all with the Pink Pig who has since retired. I'd like to think that Geelong might take an approach more similar to the one they took with Swan, letting him go head to head with one of their stars (Kelly last week), but it's more likely that Taylor Hunt will tag him (tagged Daisy to 76 last week). This is a match up that we've never seen before and I just don't think it's worth it. Prediction - 95

Stanton
It's hard to back Stanton any time soon but I just feel there's a big one coming soon. It is likely to come against a team that lets him run free and I feel that Geelong may just be that team. I'm picking Stants as my smokey for the week but I can't give any confidence and my prediction must follow that. Prediction - 90 (but feeling a potential 140+)

Swan
5 straight tons at the MCG, 6 straight against the Hawks but his 102 against them this year and two straight sub-par-for-Swan scores give a little bit of doubt. I say a little bit because I can't really see much reason to doubt him. The question is just how big his ton will be. Prediction - 130

Pendlebury
Doubts about fitness on his return were answered with a solid 117 and I can't see why he won't score similarly to his first game against the Hawks this year. I still like Swan more than him this week but I think they should both do well in a DT friendly game. Prediction - 125

Beams
Beams didn't play in round 1 this year and he scored a dismal 12 points in a 2 possession, 3 quarter effort last time he played the Hawks in last year's finals. I'd be expecting something a fair bit better this time around but I can't see stats to help me and there are much better options. Prediction - 105

Mitchell
Mitchell has had a good few weeks since his bye and is looking positive to continue his form. He has 3 of his last 4 against the Pies at 128 or above. His season high was against the Pies in round 1 and, as someone that owns him, I'd love to see him match or outdo that. Prediction - 130

Thompson
We know that he was disappointing against the Power in the Showdown but he has been good at AAMI in the past. The real thing to note is how good he's been against the Eagles. His last three don't quite do him justice with scores of 128, 110, 93, 127, 153, 118 going back. The Eagles are likely to play hard coming off a loss but I think Scotty T should be good. Prediction - 125

Ablett
He bounced back last week against a Tigers team that had no taggers but he will surely cop the Raines tag. He was injured late in the last Q Clash but he's still yet to score impressively in one. I like his odds to ton up but I don't like any captain likely to cop the tag. Prediction - 105

Rockliff
Rocky smashed the Suns for a 143 in their first encounter this season but that's not the interesting part. Rocky has scored under 100 in consecutive games 4 times this season. The previous three, he bounced back with a 100, a 125, and a 143 which was against the Suns. I really think it could happen again, especially against a team that gives up massive scores. The risk is that he's never played at Metricon and he has given some horrid scores this season. Prediction - 130

Boyd
Three straight scores of 130+ are really making me hate not having this gun in my midfield! He has a good last three against the Blues as well, averaging 125. The Blues will be Judd-less which can only make them worse and can only be a positive for Boyd. Prediction - 135

Pavlich
Having never played the Giants before, there's not many stats to go by. However, Pav has shown a great return to form and has shown he is capable of huge scores (144 against the Dogs two weeks ago). The Giants are giving up some massive scores as well. Obviously, the gamble is probably not worth the potential reward but it is mighty tempting! Prediction - 110 (could go 150+)

The verdict:

1. Boyd (135)
2. Swan (130)
3. Rockliff (130)
4. Mitchell (130)
5. Pendlebury (125)

Requests:

Zorko - Requested by KoopKicka
Last 3: 113, 140, 69 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: N/A
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Arguably the greatest DT rookie of all time, Zorko has two 140s, a 120, and a 113 to his name in the last five games with a disappointing 69 in between. Sadly, no matter how good the rookie, that 69 is something that can happen at any stage against any opponent (Melbourne are not a good side yet that's who he struggled to score against). This week, Zorko comes up against the team that drafted him, the team that (even when they win) gives up big scores frequently. There is so much chance that Zorko could add another big score to his list and, if you want to take a huge punt and have balls of steel, go for it! Too much risk for me though. Prediction - 120+ (BUT RISKY)

Brad Ebert - Requested by KoopKicka
Last 3: 104, 80, 88 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 80, 110, 107 (99)
Last 3 at TIO: N/A

Since coming to the Power, Ebert has three scores at 120+ (captain worthy scores) and seven scores under 100 (scores that tell you not to make this person captain). He may well get a ton but even that's not a certainty. Melbourne do give up a fair few tons but there are so many better options even if you want to take a silly gamble. Prediction - 95

Robinson - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 112, 109, 115 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 95, 53 (74 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 112, 68, 54 (78 avg)

Robbo has come on strong since the bye with three straight tons lifting his season average a smidgeon over 100. However, his season has been far too inconsistent to consider him a captain option, particularly without any stand out numbers against the Doggies. Prediction - 100

Deledio - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 141, 105, 115 (120 avg)
Last 3 against North: 77, 98, 91 (89 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 105, 78, 141 (108 avg)

Lids has scored 140+ four times this season so we know his ceiling is great! Sadly, this is not going to be his week. He hasn't scored a ton against North since 2006 but he's scored big at the MCG so far this season. Hard to say what he's going to get but definitely wouldn't back him. Prediction - 105

Cotchin - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 137, 106, 111 (118 avg)
Last 3 against North: 88, 98, 47 (78 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 112, 113 (110 avg)

Cotchy is also not so good against North but his super consistency at the MCG is something to smile about. Again, it's really not worth the risk. Prediction - 110

Whitecross - Requested by B.S
Last 3: 117, 110, 66 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 95, 54, 84 (78 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 110, 66, 101 (92 avg)

No tons from five attempts against the ladder leaders and, whether or not we feel this game will be DT friendly, we can't be certain. Sadly, 5 of 14 tons for the season is just not good enough to risk. Prediction - 85

Carrazzo - Requested by henry
Last 3: 123, 114, 110 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 79, 49, 101(76 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 123, 89, 62 (91 avg)

Carrazzo has been doing quite well since returning from injury and Judd out *shouldn't* be a factor. He'll likely run with a big ball winner (Boyd or Cross, for example) and rack it up. I was interested to find that he had four tons in his first four games again the Bulldogs before a 49 and 79 in his last two. He didn't play them last year and I fell he should be good this week. Prediction - 115

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments or via Twitter at https://twitter.com/LaHugDT

[Justin Bieber]

First comment

[Justin Bieber]

I'm a DT Talk fag :P

[KoopKicka]

2 requests mate

Zorks vs GC and
Brad Ebert vs Melb

Love teh work as usual :)

[LF]

Mitch Robinson
Deledio
Cotchin
Please LaHug

[Hagebear]

I'm a DT Talk fag :P

Hahaha Whatlez. Thinking im gonna put the 'C' on Pendles this week. Also feel it could be a DT friendly game saturday. (hope so, have 5 hawks and 4 pies)

[Hagebear]

2 requests mate

Zorks vs GC and
Brad Ebert vs Melb

Love teh work as usual :)

Was waiting for this from you. Still undecided?? R u definately gonna go with one of these 2?? Im interested to see if you can pull it off.

[KoopKicka]

2 requests mate

Zorks vs GC and
Brad Ebert vs Melb

Love teh work as usual :)

Was waiting for this from you. Still undecided?? R u definately gonna go with one of these 2?? Im interested to see if you can pull it off.

Ahaha yeah still undecided, dunno yet,, may go with Mitchell, but I wanna see what LH thinks first :)

[Mr.Craig]

I'm thinking Swan but that's what I said last week before changing to Boyd.

[PowerBug]

Jobe's my perma captain this season. This'll be the biggest test all season. Do i back him in to break his Geelong hoodoo?? Of course!!

[Tominator]

LaHug you are a Godsend.

[kilbluff1985]

La Hug m8 i'm actually tipping Hunt will tag Stanton, Thomas is an outside runner and so is Stanton for this reason i believe Hunt will go to Stants and most teams have given up on tagging Jobe

[Tominator]

Great stuff as always, probably gonna go with Swan, but what are your thoughts on Dayne Zorko as a smokey? haha thanks mate

[B.S]

Going safety with swan. Whitecross?????????? Big Smokey but could be a seagull outside th big packs all day!!!!

[LaHug]

La Hug m8 i'm actually tipping Hunt will tag Stanton, Thomas is an outside runner and so is Stanton for this reason i believe Hunt will go to Stants and most teams have given up on tagging Jobe

That was the other way I was leaning but I just feel that Geelong tend to always tag the same people. Obviously could be different.

Just done team summaries guys. Gotta do requests tomorrow as I'm seeing the new Batman movie at midnight :D