Who makes the top 8???

[Capper]

Just read this article @ the Herald Sun

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/more-news/st-kilda-could-be-pipped-at-post-for-a-spot-in-top-eight/story-e6frf9jf-1226428351979

Two things for me stand out:
1. If the Crows don't finish top of the table then they don't deserve to play in the finals. They have West Coast @ Home, Geelong @ Geelong, Essendon @ Home, Fremantle @ Home, Lions @ Lions, Dees @ Dees, GC @ Home. They have the easiest draw of any team in the top 8 and should be certainties for the minor premiership.
2. With a draw of Greater Western Sydney @ Home, Port Adelaide @ Adelaide, West Coast @ Home, Adelaide @ Adelaide, Richmond @ Home, North Melbourne @ Etihad, Melbourne @ Home, Freo will knock a team out of the 8

[Tominator]

I am a level-headed Crows supporter (not one of the cocky breed you commonly find in Adelaide) and even I wouldn't label certainties for minor premiership. A lot could ride on the next two games, and their easy draw makes it really hard to predict just how good they are. Should win the last 5 games though

Big issues here - for all teams in the Top 12 - are the 50-50 games that are too hard to predict the winner of this far out, and also percentage, as that could be crucial in deciding who gets the double chance or who makes the Top 8

Geelong should just scrape in, and I think 7th is probably about right. I think Saints and North Melbourne would get in in most other years but in such an even competition one of them will have to miss out; maybe both if Freo can win lots of games and up their percentage, but considering their % is so low compared to Saints that may work against them. Freo won't get up over West Coast or Adelaide though.

What is certain is that the top 6 teams will finish in the top 6 spots, but predicting who finishes where is like trying to read into a crystal ball  ::)

[Spinking]

My thinking at present would be:

Pies
Crows
Eagles
Swans
Hawks
Bombers
Saints
Cats

Saints supporter though so a bit biased :)

[Ziplock]

I can see essendon and geelong dropping out of the 8.

[Spinking]

I can see essendon and geelong dropping out of the 8.

Who in Zip?  North and Freo?

[roo boys!]

Geelong have the toughest draw for the run home, playing the top 6 teams (including last week against the Pies) so will struggle to win more than a couple of games (should beat Dogs, Saints at Etihad could go either way) With Geelong only 1 game clear of Saints/Roos/Dockers and considerably less percentage than the Saints, equal with us and more than Freo I wouldn't be surprised if the Cats missed the 8. If the Dons beat them this week this week then there could be big trouble.

Freo have a good looking run home, but they will most likely go down in the Derby and against the Crows. Seeing as we play them at Etihad you'd think that we should be able to get up over them
here (in Perth would be a different story) and Port is no given as we've been shown this season, particularly when they are at home. My final 8 prediction is:

1. Adelaide
2. Collingwood
3. Swans (few 50/50 games could see them anywhere from 1-6 like anyone else)
4. Eagles
5. Hawks
6. Bombers
7. Saints (percentage)
8. North (behind Saints only on percentage, if we smash GWS rd23 we could rise to 7th)

[PowerBug]

As long as it's 3 non-victorian sides in the top 3 spots i'll be glad. :D

[Ziplock]

I can see essendon and geelong dropping out of the 8.

Who in Zip?  North and Freo?

north, freo, richmond all a chance still.

[Tominator]

Geelong have the toughest draw for the run home, playing the top 6 teams (including last week against the Pies) so will struggle to win more than a couple of games (should beat Dogs, Saints at Etihad could go either way) With Geelong only 1 game clear of Saints/Roos/Dockers and considerably less percentage than the Saints, equal with us and more than Freo I wouldn't be surprised if the Cats missed the 8. If the Dons beat them this week this week then there could be big trouble.

Freo have a good looking run home, but they will most likely go down in the Derby and against the Crows. Seeing as we play them at Etihad you'd think that we should be able to get up over them
here (in Perth would be a different story) and Port is no given as we've been shown this season, particularly when they are at home. My final 8 prediction is:

1. Adelaide
2. Collingwood
3. Swans (few 50/50 games could see them anywhere from 1-6 like anyone else)
4. Eagles
5. Hawks
6. Bombers
7. Saints (percentage)
8. North (behind Saints only on percentage, if we smash GWS rd23 we could rise to 7th)

+1 to all of that

I don't wanna get too cocky but if the Crows can win 2 of the next 3 I can't see us missing top spot. Still, don't wanna get ahead of myself

Wouldn't be surprised if Geelong miss but even though it is very possible the prospect of that does seem somewhat-surreal

[PowerBug]

Hmmmm, i still think the cats are in cruise control, and will put the foot down now. I'm backing them to make a prelim final still, big call i know.

[Torpedo10]

Collingwood
Adelaide
West Coast
Essendon
Sydney
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Geelong

9th - StK (They get really unlucky, out by percentage)

[Ziplock]

kk, I've just done the baileys predictor, I've ended up with
Adelaide
Collingwod
Hawthrn
Sydney
West Coast
Essendon
North
St Kilda

with Richmond, Freo and Geelong tied 8th but missing out by %
Adelaide and pies separated by % same with hawks, swans and eagles (one win behind)

finishing with a hawthorn vs collingwood/swans (couldn't split them) gf.

[Capper]

I trust my Bailey's ladder
Collingwood
Sydney
Adelaide
Hawthorn
West Coast
Essendon
Geelong
Fremantle

[SydneyRox]

I dont like either of your senarios Zip or Tabs!!

Both have Sydney playing Adelaide in the first week... and we havent been able to beat them consistently since Adelaide came into the comp - 32 games for 10 wins (31%) - and the Pies are not much better at 36% - and we are currently on a 10 game losing streak to the Pies!!

[AFEV]

My Bailey says -

1. Sydney

2. Adelaide

3. Collingwood

4. Hawthorn

5. West Coast

6. Essendon

7. North Melbourne

8. St Kilda/Richmond

Saints & Richmond finished on equal points with percentage separating them.

Zaha, Hurley, Hibberd, Ryder, Crameri, Monfries, Winderlich, Colyer, Pears & Lonergan will all become available some time in the next month (providing there aren't complications.)

I like to remain optimistic in hoping that we can still get in to the top 4, although that's unlikely these blokes returning should ensure a home final.