McEvoy vs Jacobs

[smoothM24]

Upgrading Giles who does everyone think will score better for rest of the year

[mzunguman]

Tough choice......
Maybe add a poll?

[stew42]

Jacobs easily

[jamez_1983]

Jacobs easily

I dont know about easily.
but he does seem a little safer for the small price difference.

If Mac was $30k+ cheaper it would be a much easier choice.
....
...
but....maybe....flower, still cant decide

[The F.A.R.K.]

What about if you already have Jacobs...Mcevoy or Minson who would win

[Artax]

What about if you already have Jacobs...Mcevoy or Minson who would win

Jacobs...but you said you already had him ?

[upthemaidens]

Upgrading Giles who does everyone think will score better for rest of the year

pretty even, but jacobs has the easier draw  and during our finals a very soft run

[The F.A.R.K.]

What about if you already have Jacobs...Mcevoy or Minson who would win

Jacobs...but you said you already had him ?

what? I have jacobs but who should i get in for giles out of Mac or Minson

[Alka]

I've been hunting around this price range as well.

I've decided to do a bit of an analysis of their opposition to conclude who will do better. Don't mind the wall of text to come, I'm doing this as much to figure it out for myself as to help you guys.

A few points:
Both are young, so have little data.
I have discounted obvious "rookie" scores.
This is mostly my opinion, feel free to disagree.

I've divided it up into games before finals, and finals games, as this could be relevant if you are going for league (it certainly is to me).

Jacobs:
GWS - One score: 66. Struggled in his only game against the Brogan/Giles combo (which he will face again). Has better form now. My guess: 80.
West Coast - Avg 54. Had a 60 and 61 last year. Easily his worst team. My guess: 70.
Geelong - Avg 83.6. Faced this year for for an 82. Expect more of the same. My guess: 90.
Essendon - One score: 86 last year. Ryder could be missing. My guess: 95.

Fremantle - Avg 72. He really doesn't like the teams from the west. Sandi should be out though. My guess: 85.
Brisbane - Avg 100. My guess: 110
Melbourne - Avg 69.5. You might expect Melb to cough up lots of points, but it seems the rucks aren't where they're falling (see: Maric's average of 87 from 2 games vs the Dees). My guess: 85
Gold Coast - Avg 116. Loves playing these guys, and should rip them apart again. My guess: 120.

That's an average of 83.8 before finals, 91.9 for the season.

McEvoy:
Brisbane - Avg 71.5, both times at Gabba, as is this game. My guess: 80.
Sydney - Avg 60.5. Mumford smashes him every-time. My guess: 70.
Bulldogs - Avg 83.6. Saints should rack up points here. My guess: 95.
Collingwood - Avg 118 (not counting the 2010 GF). Likes the MCG. My guess: 110

Melbourne - Avg 82.5. As above, rucks aren't smashing it here. My guess: 85.
Geelong - Avg 97.5. My guess: 100
GWS - Yet to play. My guess: 90
Cartlon - Avg 87.5. My guess: 90

Before finals: 88.75. For the season: 90.

My conclusion:
A lot of people seem to be jumping on the back of Jacobs after last week. Keep in mind, he had 61 hit-outs.
That's not a feat he will often repeat. I think Jacobs' scoring is more reliant on him winning the ruck contest, and this makes him easier to predict. McEvoy only had 18 hit-outs last week and got 91 DT. I think the factor of Adelaide's "easy run" is over-rated, as GWS nor Melb cough up a lot of ruck points. Plus the easy games for Jacobs come in the finals.

Basically I think Jacobs will do better for the season and especially in finals, but McEvoy will do a better job of getting you into them. I also think McEvoy has a bigger chance of doing better than my predictions, and so despite the numbers above I choose McEvoy.

I can't wait to see how much my predictions are off by :P

[jamez_1983]

I've been hunting around this price range as well.

I've decided to do a bit of an analysis of their opposition to conclude who will do better. Don't mind the wall of text to come, I'm doing this as much to figure it out for myself as to help you guys.

A few points:
Both are young, so have little data.
I have discounted obvious "rookie" scores.
This is mostly my opinion, feel free to disagree.

I've divided it up into games before finals, and finals games, as this could be relevant if you are going for league (it certainly is to me).

Jacobs:
GWS - One score: 66. Struggled in his only game against the Brogan/Giles combo (which he will face again). Has better form now. My guess: 80.
West Coast - Avg 54. Had a 60 and 61 last year. Easily his worst team. My guess: 70.
Geelong - Avg 83.6. Faced this year for for an 82. Expect more of the same. My guess: 90.
Essendon - One score: 86 last year. Ryder could be missing. My guess: 95.

Fremantle - Avg 72. He really doesn't like the teams from the west. Sandi should be out though. My guess: 85.
Brisbane - Avg 100. My guess: 110
Melbourne - Avg 69.5. You might expect Melb to cough up lots of points, but it seems the rucks aren't where they're falling (see: Maric's average of 87 from 2 games vs the Dees). My guess: 85
Gold Coast - Avg 116. Loves playing these guys, and should rip them apart again. My guess: 120.

That's an average of 83.8 before finals, 91.9 for the season.

McEvoy:
Brisbane - Avg 71.5, both times at Gabba, as is this game. My guess: 80.
Sydney - Avg 60.5. Mumford smashes him every-time. My guess: 70.
Bulldogs - Avg 83.6. Saints should rack up points here. My guess: 95.
Collingwood - Avg 118 (not counting the 2010 GF). Likes the MCG. My guess: 110

Melbourne - Avg 82.5. As above, rucks aren't smashing it here. My guess: 85.
Geelong - Avg 97.5. My guess: 100
GWS - Yet to play. My guess: 90
Cartlon - Avg 87.5. My guess: 90

Before finals: 88.75. For the season: 90.

My conclusion:
A lot of people seem to be jumping on the back of Jacobs after last week. Keep in mind, he had 61 hit-outs.
That's not a feat he will often repeat. I think Jacobs' scoring is more reliant on him winning the ruck contest, and this makes him easier to predict. McEvoy only had 18 hit-outs last week and got 91 DT. I think the factor of Adelaide's "easy run" is over-rated, as GWS nor Melb cough up a lot of ruck points. Plus the easy games for Jacobs come in the finals.

Basically I think Jacobs will do better for the season and especially in finals, but McEvoy will do a better job of getting you into them. I also think McEvoy has a bigger chance of doing better than my predictions, and so despite the numbers above I choose McEvoy.

I can't wait to see how much my predictions are off by :P

Wow!
Serious info mate, good job!

[Grazz]

Great work Alka above and beyond the call of duty,good stuff mate.
In saying that i lean towards Jacobs but my one concern with him is
he has done the bulk of the work in the ruck this year and would be
crying out for another rest at some stage. This could be a concern for
smoothM. Goodluck to you. :)

[Chelskiman]

Nice work, but I'm still going Jacobs.  I'll play finals this year, and his match up in the finals looks great, plus if I make it all the way to the GF he will be up against GC, which I really like the look of.