LaHug's Captains Round 16 - New Top 5!!!

[LaHug]

After a few too many rumours of Swan being injured, he has been dropped to 3rd behind Boyd and Thompson this week!

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Hey guys,
After a week of DT carnage and a week of more carnage to come, let me take some of that stress away by helping you with your all important captain choice! If you appreciate my work, why not reward me with a little vote in the Personality of the Year Award? http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,45929.0.html

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. On top of this, I look at each team's tons given up over the last 3 weeks. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

Team summaries:

Adelaide
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 135 Tuck, 122 Maric, 115 Deledio

Brisbane
Tons per game: 2
Top scores: 141 McVeigh, 137 Goodes, 105 S.Martin

Carlton
Tons per game: 2.7
Top scores: 136 Naitanui, 124 Mitchell, 115 Franklin

Collingwood
Tons per game: 2.7
Top scores: 126 Waters, 120 Barlow, 114 Carrazzo

Essendon
Tons per game: 3.3
Top scores: 135 N. Riewoldt, 132 Boyd, 115 Lower

Fremantle
Tons per game: 4
Top scores: 172 Swan, 133 Blair, 133 Boyd, 123 Jolly, 122 Minson

Geelong
Tons per game: 1.7
Top scores: 112 McCarthy, 104 Ablett, 104 Lobbe

Gold Coast
Tons per game: 6.7
Top scores: 148 Shuey, 132 Grima, 132 Chapman, 128 Kelly, 127 Harvey, 126 Petrie, 121 Masten, 120 Cox

GWS
Tons per game: 6.7
Top scores: 159 Rioli, 149 McVeigh, 139 Roughead, 127 Jack, 125 O'Keefe, 122 Suckling, 120 Shiels

Hawthorn
Tons per game: 2.7
Top scores: 140 Zorko, 125 Greene, 115 Robinson

Melbourne
Tons per game: 3.7
Top scores: 130 Brown, 127 Harwood, 120 Hanley, 120 Grigg

North
Tons per game: 3.3
Top scores: 148 Cox, 141 Priddis, 122 Hayes, 121 Armitage

Port Adelaide
Tons per game: 3.3
Top scores: 133 Boyd, 122 Jacobs, 120 Henderson

Richmond
Tons per game: 1
Top scores: 128 Thompson, 105 Sylvia, 101 S. Martin

St. Kilda
Tons per game: 3.7
Top scores: 144 Swallow, 141 Thomspon, 135 Adams, 129 Wells

Sydney
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 140 Zorko, 119 Hanley, 118 Chapman

West Coast
Tons per game: 2
Top scores: 134 Swallow, 132 Swan, 117 Beams

Bulldogs
Tons per game: 5.3
Top scores: 144 Pavlich, 141 Rockliff, 134 Hanley, 133 Hurley, 129 Dempsey, 126 Watson, 125 Redden, 122 Hocking, 120 Howlett, 120 Zorko

The facts:

Watson
Last 3: 82, 126, 101 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 139, 116, 107 (121 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 64, 110, 88 (87 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 74, 111, 115 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 116, 98, 102 (105 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 87, 79, 125 (97 avg)

Deledio
Last 3: 105, 115, 110 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 119 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Cazaly: 119 (119 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 104, 102, 148 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 101, 81, 135 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Cazaly: 101 (101 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 105, 119, 103 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 136, 119, 118 (124 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 136, 104, 119 (120 avg)

Chapman
Last 3: 132, 118, 89 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 93, 84, 135 (104 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 93, 89, 84 (89 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 105, 172, 132 (136 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 95, 68, 84 (82 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 105, 172, 132 (136 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 59, 88, 133 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 133, 131, 106 (123 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 59, 133, 113 (102 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 78, 113, 117 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 100, 129, 69 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 78, 113, 117 (103 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 94, 99, 81 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 139, 109, 112 (120 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 94, 99, 81 (91 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 96, 119, 141 (119 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 106, 110 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 119, 85, 125 (110 avg)

Redden
Last 3: 66, 110, 125 (100 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 138, 107 (123 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 110, 127, 99 (112 avg)

Thompson
Last 3: 90, 128, 107 (108 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 109 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Skoda: N/A

Boyd
Last 3: 133, 132, 70 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 108, 119, 121 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 132, 70, 133 (112 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 106, 124, 113 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 103, 128, 112 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 96, 103, 95 (98 avg)

The thoughts:

Watson
Jobe loves playing against Port Adelaide with a 139 against them earlier this year and tons in his last four against them. However, he hasn't played in Adelaide since 2010 and it's a ground that he has only scored a ton in once out of six games. It's his least favourite ground to play at with a career average of 76 there. His form this year suggests that the ground isn't likely to cause him too much strife but be weary. Prediction - 115

Stanton
Stanton also enjoys playing the Power but, as with Watson, AAMI Park seems to be a daunting arena. Recent form suggests that Stanton is not the super premium that I, amongst others, had thought he was earlier. Should be able to squeeze out something decent but nothing special. Prediction - 105

Deledio
From a DT perspective, the Tigers are playing Gold Coast at the right time with the Suns giving up 6, 7, and 7 tons in their last three games (many being 120+ too). Lids got 119 against the Suns last year in a loss that you wouldn't expect to happen again. You'd only expect him to outdo that this week, especially with the form he's shown this season. Prediction - 125

Ablett
GAJ has performed a disappearing act recently with three of his last four below 105 and last week's ton needing a superhero 4th quarter effort just to achieve it. The Tigers are, amazingly, only giving up one ton per game in the last three weeks and only Scott Thompson's was anything to cheer about. I'd be cautious before considering the C on Ablett this week. We all know he'll bounce back eventually but, after only scoring 101 last time and against a team that has really controlled the ball in the past few weeks, this week probably won't be it. Prediction - 105

Selwood
The Geelong Captain has stepped up week after week and, in a big game against the Pies, expect it to happen again. Selwood loves playing Collingwood with five straight tons against them. Couple that with seven straight at the MCG and you're looking at something good this week. He's been super consistent this year making him practically risk free because, if he doesn't smash it for you, he'll still bring in a ton. Prediction - 125

Chapman
With Chappy's recent form and his ability to step it up in big games, I'd have thought he'd be a great option this week. Turns out that his last few at the MCG (two of which were against the Pies) have been pretty average and his last couple against the Pies (this year and the GF last year) were pretty average too. I'm thinking he'll bounce back but maybe not as big as I'd initially thought. Prediction - 100

Swan
Swan used to struggle against the Cats with Ling always keeping him quiet but, this season, without Ling, he was on track for a good score (90 at 3QT) before getting injured with 2 points in the 4th quarter. I'd suggest that, without Ling again and, hopefully, injury free, we can expect Swanny to light it up and bounce back from last week's disappointing 105. Prediction - 135

Pendlebury
Likely to make his return this week, Pendlebury enjoys the big stage and there doesn't come much bigger than a grand final rematch. Last time, Pendles had 30 disposals and 4 goals showing that he's capable of getting his points however he pleases. Obviously, being his first game back, there is a big risk that he won't be 100%. Take extreme caution if considering him this week. Prediction - 130 (if fit)

Beams
Last week, Beams showed he was human with a poor outing of only 78 points. He has shown great scoring ability against the reigning premiers with 100 earlier this year and a junk-filled 129 in round 24 last year (didn't play the GF). He should bounce back this week but a huge score is unlikely. Prediction - 110

Sidebottom
Since that 150 against the Demons (or, arguably, before the 150), Steele has slowed his scoring with a three round average of only 91. Luckily for his owners, he plays the Cats this week which, with three straight tons against them, are his favourite team to play of late. Last time, he was one of the best on ground with a 38 disposal performance. I like his chances to regain some form this week. Prediction - 115

Rockliff
Rocky has been better since the bye and he's two from two tons against the Saints for his career. His love for the Gabba is a positive sign too. The Saints only gave up the single ton last week but, the two weeks prior, they gave up some big scores. Prediction - 120

Redden
Redden is also two from two against the Saints but his most recent game was a solid 138. His love for the Gabba outshines Rocky's too but his best hasn't been as big as Rocky's this season (i.e. more consistent but lower ceiling). Prediction - 120

Thompson
When they played earlier this year, most people predicted Thompson to treat the Giants like he treats the Suns and smash them for a huge score. That didn't happen. Scotty was held to 27 disposals by a good McDonald tag and, if it weren't for a mark/goal at the siren, he wouldn't have even cracked the ton! I, for one, can't see him being kept that quiet again. The Giants have given up 19 tons in their last two games and 7 of them have been 120+. I'm predicting something a bit more like that when the Crows play them this week. Prediction - 130

Boyd
Since his bye, Boyd has had 133, 132, 70, 133 and, this week, he's playing against a team he's scored five straight tons against under the roof at his beloved Docklands. This is the first season that I haven't had Boyd since I can remember and, frankly, I'm regretting it big time! Looks like another healthy score for him this week. Prediction - 130

Mitchell
With three straight tons against the Bulldogs and the Doggies giving up some large tons in recent weeks, you'd think Mitchell will have a good weekend. As a Hawk, he rarely plays at Etihad but he has usually been around the 100 mark there so that shouldn't be an issue. Prediction - 125

The verdict:

1. Boyd (130)
2. Thompson (130)
3. Swan (125) - Injury concerns
4. Selwood (125)
5. Mitchell (125)
*Pendlebury (130) not placed on list due to fitness concerns - still a great option but risky!

Requests:

Pavlich - Requested by MLS
Last 3: 144, 113, 107 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 88, 79, 97 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 72, 39, 88 (66 avg)

With four straight tons, Pav has reclaimed his position amongst the very best forwards in the competition. However, he hasn't had a ton against the Dees since 2008 and at Etihad since 2009. We know the Dockers don't like coming to Melbourne and Pav is no exception. Jonno Brown smashed them a few weeks back with a 4 goal haul and I think Pav will need something similar to go big against a team he doesn't seem to rack it up against. Prediction - 100

Zorko - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 140, 69, 120 (110 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: N/A
Last 3 at Gabba: 69, 102, 96 (89 avg)

If you take out that 69 and pretend it never happened, you have a rolling average of 133 (140, 120, 140) and claims of the greatest rookie scorer ever would be fair. Let's not get ahead of ourselves... That 69 did happen and it was a continuation of an unfortunate trend that sees Zorko continue to score much worse at the Gabba than away from it. All three of his scores of 120+ are away from home and four of his five worst are at the Gabba. I don't like that trend, especially not against a St. Kilda team coming off a win against the Bombers. Prediction - 90

Priddis - Requested by masedog333
Last 3: 141, 100, 83 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 85, 85, 66 (79 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 100, 93, 108 (100 avg)

After a nice 141, people may be looking at Priddis for a POD this week. My advice, DON'T! Sydney are his worst team to play with a career average of only 63 against them (20 less than his next worst). Despite the fact that he'll be at Subiaco, he probably won't do anything flash against the Swans (especially considering their form). Prediction - 90

Tuck - Requested by stew42
Last 3: 117, 135, 106 (119 avg)
Last 3 against GC: N/A
Last 3 at Cazaly: N/A

Tuck is a massively underrated premium, averaging more than the likes of Rockliff, Cox, and Redden, and within 5 points of Pendles, Sidebottom, Chapman, Selwood, Franklin, and Mitchell! Now that we know this guy is a serious DTer, his four straight tons (half of which are above 120) make his recent for great. Now, finally, he's playing the Suns who love to give up big tons! He's never played them before but that shouldn't matter. You may ask, "Why didn't you look at him earlier?" Well, only 1.36% of DTers have him. Prediction - 125

Cotchin - Requested by Toga
Last 3: 106, 111, 87 (101 avg)
Last 3 against GC: 118 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Cazaly: 118 (118 avg)

Cotchy played well against the Suns last time and will likely do so again. The Suns are playing alright but giving up plenty of DT tons. Surely he'll match, or outdo, his last game against the league bottom dwellers. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield - Requested by Ash A
Last 3: 89, 84, 100 (91 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 66 (66 avg)
Last 3 at Skoda: N/A

Danger scored a measly 66 against the Giants last time they played and his recent form has been pretty average. Like Thommo, I'm thinking he'll do a bit better this time around but all the stats point to something poor. Prediction - 100

Josh P. Kennedy - Requested by KoopKicka
Last 3: 83, 117, 76 (92 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 81, 70 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 81, 52 (67 avg)

After a strong start to the season, JPK has slowed. Much more of a SCer than a DTer, he's probably not one you should be considering as a captain option (or even a premium mid, really). He does have a big ceiling as shown with a big 147 against the Hawks and 136 against the Dockers but they were early in the season. Pass for me. Prediction - 80

Cox - Requested by Chelskiman
Last 3: 148, 120, 83 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 127, 102, 129 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 120, 96, 89 (102 avg)

The Big Cox has been huge in the last couple of weeks, proving that he is still the premier ruckman of the competition. The first things I must note is that the last two weeks were against the Kangaroos (giving up some healthy tons but Cox was still awesome) and the Suns (who are, simply, crap). That being said, Cox has a nice record against the Swans with street straight tons. I guess the risk is captaining a ruck that will probably spend lots of time forward and has scores as low as 72 but as high as last week's 148. Great ceiling and *should* score well but not worth the risk. Prediction - 115

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments or via Twitter at https://twitter.com/LaHugDT

[HBTD22]

Its a big toss up this week between Boyd and Selwood for me!

[MLS]

Hey LaHug, what about Pav?

I brought him in last week for Zaka and looks good. Against the Dees, should kill it

[pommyadam]

good write up

i'm thinking that the heat/playing in Cairns will get to Deledio, so wouldn't expect a high score
also set for rain in Brisbane (on Saturday at least), which rules out any big (talking 130s) scores
putting it on Scotty T this week

can I request Zorko?

[jaffa35]

Is Cazaly Stadium in Cairns?..... the forecast is like 27 degrees for Saturday.

[masedog333]

Cheers LaHug

I think I'll go Thommo, but i was just wondering, if you're looking to get the edge over your opponents and have a huge set, who are some good smokey's for this week? e.g Pavlich V Melbourne, Priddis V Sydney at his beloved Patersons?

[pommyadam]

Is Cazaly Stadium in Cairns?..... the forecast is like 27 degrees for Saturday.

yeah it is
but when you're travelling up from 14C melbourne, it takes it out of you

also bear in mind that GC beat Richmond when they played there last year (86 to 70), and losing teams never get a big score

[LaHug]

Hey LaHug, what about Pav?

I brought him in last week for Zaka and looks good. Against the Dees, should kill it

Done. Surprisingly, not looking so great.

can I request Zorko?

Done. Doesn't like the Gabba so not a chance for me this week.

I think I'll go Thommo, but i was just wondering, if you're looking to get the edge over your opponents and have a huge set, who are some good smokey's for this week? e.g Pavlich V Melbourne, Priddis V Sydney at his beloved Patersons?

Took this as a request. Looked at both Pav and Priddis and neither look good this week. Personally, if I wanted to take a big gamble with a smokey, I'd look at an unfavoured Crow (Sloane, Danger, Jacobs) or a Tiger (Grigg, Cotchin).

[Jukes]

Swanny because I haven't got the guts to go Thommo.

[stew42]

Hey LaHug, what about Pav?

I brought him in last week for Zaka and looks good. Against the Dees, should kill it

Done. Surprisingly, not looking so great.

can I request Zorko?

Done. Doesn't like the Gabba so not a chance for me this week.

I think I'll go Thommo, but i was just wondering, if you're looking to get the edge over your opponents and have a huge set, who are some good smokey's for this week? e.g Pavlich V Melbourne, Priddis V Sydney at his beloved Patersons?

Took this as a request. Looked at both Pav and Priddis and neither look good this week. Personally, if I wanted to take a big gamble with a smokey, I'd look at an unfavoured Crow (Sloane, Danger, Jacobs) or a Tiger (Grigg, Cotchin).

On that note, could I have a look at Tuck?

[Toga]

reckon you could do cotchy for me Huggy? cheers mate, appreciated as always!

[LaHug]

On that note, could I have a look at Tuck?

Honestly didn't think anyone really had him. Would be a great POD if you did. Done!

reckon you could do cotchy for me Huggy? cheers mate, appreciated as always!

Done, mate!

[bigballs]

LaHug thanks for the great work. The stat about Richmond only giving up 1 ton per game in the last week is misleading. They played, GWS, Adelaide and Melbourne. GWS and Melbourne have no good players and against Adelaide Scotty T scored 128. If you look at matches previous to the last 3, midfielders have done quite well against the Tigers. De Boer, Watson and Stanton all had quite big scores.

I love reading your captain choices every week, but I think and hope you have underestimated GAZ!

[Football Factory]

Swan again for me   :)

[Ash A]

Great work LaHug!!

Probably wont go this option but wouldnt mind having a look at a prediction.
Patrick Dangerfield ;)
cheers mate