WXV Round 14 - the Run Home

[ossie85]

Round 14

Home Team		Score		Score		Away Team		Location
Berlin Brewers		0.0.0	vs.	0.0.0		Cape Town Cobras		Olympic Stadium, Berlin
London Royals		0.0.0	vs.	0.0.0		Moscow Spetsnaz		Wembley
Seoul Magpies		0.0.0	vs.	0.0.0		Toronto Wolves		Seoul World Cup Stadium
New Delhi Tigers		0.0.0	vs.	0.0.0		Wellington Warriors		Nepal
Cairo Sands		0.0.0	vs.	0.0.0		Buenos Aires Armadillos		Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria, Egypt
Beijing Bears		0.0.0	vs.	0.0.0		Sao Paulo Pumas		Beijing Olympic Park
Tokyo Samurai		0.0.0	vs.	0.0.0		Pacific Islanders		National Olympic Stadium, Tokyo
Dublin Destroyers		0.0.0	vs.	0.0.0		Mexico City Suns		Crooke Park
Paris Nice Lyon Reindeers		0.0.0	vs.	0.0.0		New York Eagles		Stade de France

The Run Home


1. Sao Paulo, 12-1, 113.75%

Gained a fair chunk of percentage last week to give the Pumas a bit of breathing space. An away game to Beijing could give the Pumas some trouble if the cards fall the Bears way, but I can't see the Pumas losing any of the last 3 matches. Should finish 1st, and deservingly so.

R14: Beijing (A)
R15: Dublin (H)
R16: New York (A)
R17: Pacific (H)

2. Mexico City, 11-2, 112.19%

It is amazing how the top 2 teams have the easiest run home! Shows how good both have been all year. Mexico City MUST win all 4 remaining matches, gain a little percentage, and hope the Pumas slip up once to get the Minor Premiership. Mark the next 3 weeks as wins barring a crazy Dean Cox-like performance, though current top 4 team Buenos Aires may prove more difficult in the final week. A lock for top 2.

R14: Dublin (A)
R15: New York (H)
R16: Pacific (H)
R17: Buenos Aires (A)

3. Cape Town, 9-4, 105.82%

With a starting midfield of Joel Selwood, Jobe Watson, Trent Cotchin and Josh P Kennedy, the Cobras are a force - remembering this is the team that lost to the Pumas by only a point! Should defeat Berlin and New Delhi comfortably, will start strong favourites against London, with a trickier away match against Seoul looking the most difficult. Extremely unlikely to pass 1st or 2nd, but should stay 3rd without much trouble.

R14: Berlin (A)
R15: London (H)
R16: Seoul (A)
R17: New Delhi (H)

4. Buenos Aires, 8-5, 104.80%

Undermanned, the Armadillos have won 6 of the last 7 as superstar Dane Swan is hitting top form. 4th spot is well and truly up for grabs, so any slips could prove costly. The next 3 weeks are 'should wins' but all three of Cairo, Tokyo and PNL have the capacity to upset. It is possible they may need to win all 4 matches to keep hold of this spot, meaning it could come down to a show down against the Mexico City Suns.

R14: Cairo (A)
R15: Tokyo (H)
R16: PNL (A)
R17: Mexico City (H)

5. Wellington, 8-5, 101.13%

After a slump that saw them lose 4 in a row, the Warriors finally found some form last week with a strong win over London. The news gets better with star Marc Murphy set to return very soon. Still well and truly a chance for a top 4 spot, with Beijing the most difficult match to come. Would back the Warriors against bottom 9 teams New Delhi, Dublin and New York - in fact, the Warriors have not lost to anyone in the bottom 9 this year. On the flip-side, they are 2-5 against teams currently sitting in the top 9.

R14: New Delhi (A)
R15: Beijing (H)
R16: Dublin (A)
R17: New York (H)

6. Beijing, 8-5, 97.09%

VERY close to upsetting the Suns last week, which would have gone a long way to sealing up a top 4 spot. Due to poor percentage, need to win all matches to make the four you would think. Unfortunately, they have Sao Paulo, Wellington and Moscow the next 3 weeks, and a tricky away game to London to finish the year. The loses to New Delhi, Pacific and Cairo could haunt this team, and could easily find themselves out of the 8.

R14: Sao Paulo (H)
R15: Wellington (A)
R16: Moscow (H)
R17: London (A)

7. Toronto, 7-6, 105.75%

Missing the influence of usual captain Scott Pendlebury, and at times looked like losing against Berlin last week, but pulled through. Have cracked 160 twice this year, and are one of the more dangerous teams. Consistency is the problem though. The next match against 8th placed Seoul looks crucial, but the three matches after that they will start favourites. A slip-up could end the season.

R14: Seoul (A)
R15: Cairo (H)
R16: Tokyo (A)
R17: PNL (H)

8. Seoul, 7-6, 101.70%

Seoul's lowest score of the year could not have come at a worse time for the Magpies, who have struggled for rhythm all season. With Toronto and Cape Town in the final 4 weeks - both at home - the Magpies are in real danger of missing the finals. Berlin and Cairo are easier, but both those teams have the capacity to do serious damage.

R14: Toronto (H)
R15: Berlin (A)
R16: Cape Town (H)
R17: Cairo (H)

9. Moscow, 7-6, 98.34%

If you ignore the first 4 rounds (or even first 5), Moscow are clearly in top 4 form. Barring a mathematical miracle, they won't finish top 4 but still have destiny in there own hands. 4 wins will see them make the finals (they would at worst push out Round 16 opponent Beijing), and would back Moscow winning matches against London, New Delhi and Dublin.

R14: London (A)
R15: New Delhi (H)
R16: Beijing (A)
R17: Dublin (H)

10. London, 6-7, 99.28%

What to think of the London Royals? If Brent Stanton fires, they are hard to stop, but not impossible. An average of 127 for the season is below par, but has had a scores of 153 and 147 before. They will need more scores like that if they are to force there way into the eight. Moscow, Cape Town and Beijing will all be tough, and even New Delhi is not guaranteed.

R14: Moscow (H)
R15: Cape Town (A)
R16: New Delhi (A)
R17: Beijing (H)

11. Pacific, 6-7, 96.75%

Everyone's 2nd team seems to be the Pacific! And many were glad that they ended there 5 match losing streak with a strong 137 against Cairo. Wins against Tokyo and PNL are feasible, but facing the two competition heavyweights in the final 2 rounds means that they would need a Chris Judd inspired miracle to make the finals.

R14: Tokyo (A)
R15: PNL (H)
R16: Mexico City (A)
R17: Sao Paulo (A)

12. New Delhi, 6-7, 95.07%

2 wins from the last 9 has almost - ALMOST written off the year for New Delhi. Unfortunately, Wellington, Moscow and Cape Town are not teams to be taken lightly, with London at home looking there most likely - but not certain - win.

R14: Wellington (H)
R15: Moscow (A)
R16: London (H)
R17: Cape Town (A)

13. Tokyo, 5-8, 97.84%

Tokyo were slowly building momentum before last week's travesty against New York, and are only a mathematical chance to make the 8. Pacific and Berlin look possible places for wins, and could also cause some damage by upsetting Buenos Aires or Toronto.

R14: Pacific (H)
R15: Buenos Aires (A)
R16: Toronto (H)
R17: Berlin (A)

14. Cairo, 5-8, 96.62%

4 wins in a row had punters start to think of miracles for the Sands, but came crashing back down to earth with a bad loss against a very competitive Pacific. Not guaranteed to win any of the last 4, but not guaranteed to lose any of them either.

R14: Buenos Aires (H)
R15: Toronto (A)
R16: Berlin (H)
R17: Seoul (A)

15. Berlin, 4-9, 94.22%

When a team scores 97 one week, and 172 the next, you have to be wary! Berlin will not make the finals, and the best they can hope for is to create some upsets. The task made much tougher with news competition heavyweight Lance Franklin will miss the next 3 weeks.

R14: Cape Town (H)
R15: Seoul (H)
R16: Cairo (A)
R17: Tokyo (H)

16. New York, 4-9, 93.67%

With arguably the best ruck in the competition in Dean Cox as Captain, the New York Eagles reminded everyone that on it's day, they can beat anybody. Crippled by the loss of #1 pick Nat Fyfe early in the season, the Eagles best chance of a win is against the in-form PNL Reindeers, before an extremely tough final 3 rounds against Mexico City, Sao Paulo and Wellington. The win last week all but guarantees NOT winning the wooden spoon.

R14: PNL (A)
R15: Mexico City (A)
R16: Sao Paulo (H)
R17: Wellington (A)

17. PNL, 2-11, 93.99%

2 wins, and 2 close losses in the last 4 weeks have given PNL supporters hope for the year ahead, and they would fancy themselves against New York and Pacific in the next couple of weeks, before sterner tests against Buenos Aires and Toronto to finish. Should do enough to avoid the wooden spoon.

R14: New York (H)
R15: Pacific (A)
R16: Buenos Aires (H)
R17: Toronto (A)

18. Dublin, 2-11, 87.09%

Dublin's highest score of the year is 128, Mexico City's lowest is 134,  Sao Paulo's lowest is 132. This shows the plight of Destroyers who have the toughest run home of any club. Feel they have the spoon in the bag, but can they pull of an upset and throw a spanner in the works? Rumours Lachie Whitfield is looking at houses in Ireland.

R14: Mexico City (H)
R15: Sao Paulo (A)
R16: Wellington (H)
R17: Moscow (A)


ossie85's Prediction at Final Ladder
1 Sao Paulo Pumas 16 1
2 Mexico City Suns 15 2
3 Cape Town Cobras 13 4
4 Wellington Warriors 12 5
5 Buenos Aires Armadillos 11 6
6 Moscow Spetsnaz 11 6
7 Toronto Wolves 10 7
8 Seoul Magpies 10 7
9 Beijing Bears 9 8
10 Tokyo Samurai 7 10
11 London Royals 7 10
12 Cairo Sands 6 11
13 Pacific Islanders 6 11
14 New Delhi Tigers 6 11
15 Paris Nice Lyon Reindeers 4 13
16 Berlin Brewers 4 13
17 New York Eagles 4 13
18 Dublin Destroyers 2 15

[j959]

C'mon Reindeers!!!  ;)

4th last would not be bad final result at all considering the shizen run of luck for the first 2/3rds of the season ...

[CrowsFan]

Awesome write up ossie! As usual you keep finding ways to impress me further!!

[Maca24]

Fantastic work Ossie! What a great read :)

Good:
Burgoyne should return.
I play Dublin.
Most of my players will return in the next month.
Mexico should finish Top 4 :)

Bad:
Luke Hodge with apparently another setback :/
Jimmy Bartel suspended for 2-3 weeks.
Matt White suspended for 3-4 weeks.
Sandilands unlikely to make it back.


Mexico City Suns

Backs: S.Gilbert, G.Ibbotson, S.Burgoyne, M.Firrito
Mids: D.Pfieffer, B.Howlett, B.Ebert, B.McLean
Rucks: I.Maric (C)
Frwds: P.Chapman, A.Goodes, J.Lewis (VC), N.Riewoldt
Bench: A.Toovey, M.Baguley
Emergencies: M.Mattner, T.Milera, D.Talia.

[Justin Bieber]

Awesome write up indeed Oss :D. Very interesting read!

C'mon Reindeers!!!  ;)

4th last would not be bad final result at all considering the shizen run of luck for the first 2/3rds of the season ...

Haha, shame we couldn't prolong this last season rush earlier this year! Hopefully we can continue to climb the rankings 8).

[Purple 77]

No franklin?






.............*sobs*

[meow meow]

Shaun Higgins copped a knock to the leg late in the last quarter last week, and it was initially feared that he had broken a bone in his leg, much the same as Pendlebury earlier in the season. Higgo shook it off and is likely to lace up the boots this weekend.

Ryan Bastinac has been terrible lately and is on the chopping block. 2 weeks ago he scored 70 odd, but that's only because he kicked a goal late in the game when it was on the line. Was on about 35 at 3QT. Scored 34 this week, which is simply unacceptable for a midfielder.

If Bastinac gets cut, and Higgins does play, it means that Shaun will be the only Spetsnaz player to have played in every match. Higgins = durable

Tom Williams looks likely to play his first AFL game for the season. Could make his way in to the D4 spot. Has been playing as a ruckman/forward in the VFL and doing a reasonably good job of it. We all know rucks score well so this is good news for Moscow.

[meow meow]

Dublin are in with a real chance of winning this week.

[Holz]

Dublin are in with a real chance of winning this week.

not only that but i would have to be favourite the week after too

[ossie85]

Mids: N.Foley, B.Howlett, B.Ebert, B.McLean

Poor Foley Maca :/

[FisherSaints]

Last week only 15 of my players were named :'( :'(

[ossie85]

Last week only 15 of my players were named :'( :'(

Lies :) 17

EDIT - though the other 2 were late inclusions, so fair call!

Tom Rockliff   69
Nick Dal Santo   115
Brent Harvey   125
Corey Enright   93
Daniel Merrett   55
Jackson Trengove   61
Rhys Palmer   54
Jarryn Geary   78
Justin Koschitzke   84
Dayne Zorko   121
Sam Lonergan   80
Nicholas Duigan   79
David Hille   88
Brett Ebert   42
Shaun Edwards   38
Kyle Cheney   47
Jordan Murdoch   55

[Maca24]

Mids: N.Foley, B.Howlett, B.Ebert, B.McLean

Poor Foley Maca :/

Why Oswald? :)

[ossie85]

Injured Maca :/ Starting to fall apart for you!

[PowerBug]

Out for the year Maca. :'( He is my Euros team. :'(


Swanny in doubt too. :-X