LaHug's Captains Round 15 - NEW TOP 5!

[LaHug]

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Hey guys,
Another week with lots of spare time so a lengthy write up for you to read. If you can't be bothered, just search for the big green "The verdict" and see my top 5. If you appreciate my work, why not reward me with a little vote in the Personality of the Year Award? http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,45929.0.html

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. On top of this, I look at each team's tons given up over the last 3 weeks. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

Team summaries:

Carlton
Tons per game: 2.7
Top scores: 136 Naitanui, 124 Mitchell, 122 J.Selwood

Collingwood
Tons per game: 2
Top scores: 126 Waters, 120 Barlow, 114 Grimes

West Coast
Tons per game: 2
Top scores: 132 Swan, 118 Carrazzo, 117 Beams

North
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 148 Ablett, 122 Hayes, 121 Armitage

Richmond
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 147 de Boer, 128 Thompson, 107 Pavlich

Melbourne
Tons per game: 4.3
Top scores: 155 Beams, 150 Sidebottom, 142 Swan, 130 Brown, 127 Harwood, 120 Hanley

Brisbane
Tons per game: 2.7
Top scores: 122 Franklin, 113 Mitchell, 105 S.Martin

Sydney
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 131 Watson, 118 Chapman, 118 Bartel

Essendon
Tons per game: 4
Top scores: 132 Boyd, 117 Jetta, 115 Lower

St. Kilda
Tons per game: 3.7
Top scores: 144 Swallow, 141 Thomspon, 135 Adams, 129 Wells

Adelaide
Tons per game: 4
Top scores: 135 Tuck, 131 Dal Santo, 127 Montagna, 122 Maric

Port Adelaide
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 133 Boyd, 119 Selwood, 119 R.Murphy

GWS
Tons per game: 4
Top scores: 149 McVeigh, 127 Jack, 125 O'Keefe

Hawthorn
Tons per game: 3.3
Top scores: 140 Zorko, 125 K.Cornes, 115 Robinson

Geelong
Tons per game: 1.3
Top scores: 112 McCarthy, 112 Simpson, 104 Lobbe

Gold Coast
Tons per game: 6.3
Top scores: 148 Shuey, 136 N.Riewoldt, 132 Grima, 131 Blake, 127 Harvey, 126 Petrie, 121 Masten, 120 Cox

Bulldogs
Tons per game: 5
Top scores: 141 Rockliff, 134 Hanley, 133 Hurley, 129 Dempsey, 126 Watson, 125 Redden, 122 Hocking, 120 Howlett, 120 Zorko

Fremantle
Tons per game: 4
Top scores: 172 Swan, 133 Blair, 124 Tuck, 123 Jolly

The facts:

Swan
Last 3: 172, 132, 142 (149 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 109, 101, 116 (109 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 172, 132, 142 (149 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 59, 88, 133 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 62, 123, 95 (93 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 59, 133, 113 (102 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 113, 117, 155 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 93, 74, 129 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 117, 155 (128 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 99, 81, 150 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 113, 90, 86 (96 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 81, 150 (110 avg)

Deledio
Last 3: 115, 110, 78 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 109, 83, 87 (93 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 78, 141, 160 (126 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 126, 101, 131 (119 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 134, 123, 96 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 126, 131, 114 (124 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 111, 115, 89 (105 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 76, 134, 62 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 111, 89, 140 (113 avg)

Thompson
Last 3: 128, 107, 141 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 138, 71, 141 (117 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 128, 141, 84 (118 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 124, 113, 88 (108 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at MCG: 124, 113, 89 (109 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 119, 103, 122 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 135, 116 (126 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 116 (116 avg)

Pavlich
Last 3: 113, 107, 107 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 91, 96, 120 (102 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 107, 83, 97 (96 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 132, 70, 133 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 155, 162, 117 (145 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 102, 162, 114 (126 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
We should all be aware of his recent form recently with his 3 game average at a ridiculous 149 with his last three all at the MCG. As is the case against most teams, Swan doesn't have a problem with playing the Blues. 12 of his last 13 against them are tons with four of them being 130+. In his current form and against a disappointing Carlton team, you'd expect another 130+ to join the list. Prediction - 135

Pendlebury
Lots of reasons not to consider him this week. Firstly, Carrazzo shut him down big time last time they played the Blues and I'm picking it'll happen again. Of course, he might not even need to be shut down if he's not actually 100%. On top of all that, it's not a certainty that he'll be playing or play the whole game. Don't go there! Prediction - 90

Beams
His awesome form continued last week (albeit with a less awesome score than I had predicted) and I don't see why he won't score well again. However, if Pendles is out, I wouldn't count out Beams copping the Carrazzo tag so be wary when teams are named. Prediction - 115

Sidebottom
Steele hasn't backed up his 150 with the good scores his owners have come to expect. I can't explain where his form has gone but I'm feeling a return is just around the corner. He's scored well against the Blues already this year so why not again? Prediction - 115

Deledio
He probably will cop a tag but that should slow Lids down this week. He is playing against a hopeless Demon outfit giving up plenty of tons and not performing well. Still, there are better choices out there. Prediction - 115

Watson
Similarly to his Bombers, Watson loves playing against the Saints. 4 of his last 5 are over 120 and three of them are over 130. That, combined with his good form and love of Etihad make him a great choice for this week. Prediction - 125

Stanton
Last time the Bombers met the Saints, the Clinton Jones tag suffocated Stanton and it is likely that they'll go there again. Probably not a good sign for Stanton owners. Prediction - 80

Thompson
Scott Thompson has put up some great scores against the Power in the past and usually enjoys the big stage. The most worrying factor is those poor scores scattered amongst the good ones. He has been red hot since his bye and I'd like to think that'll continue. Obviously, there is a risk of him having one of those crap ones though so he's certainly not what I would consider a "safe" option. Prediction - 130

Mitchell
Sydney broke the curious trend of GWS not giving up big scores by gathering 3 above 120. Hawthorn are one of those teams that love the slaughter which makes GWS a perfect opponent for their big stars to go crazy against. Mitchell should and probably will take advantage of this. Prediction - 130

Selwood
The Suns are giving up a ridiculous 6.3 tons per game and a lot of them are big. Selwood scored well against them last year and could quite possibly do even better this year. I'm looking forward to him tearing it up for a big score. Prediction - 130

Pavlich
The Bulldogs are giving up big and frequent tons with 9 and 5 tons in the last two weeks respectively (9 of those 14 at 120+). As the best Docker available, Pav is the most likely to take advantage of this. Obviously, all things considering, Pav would probably be a stupid risk but, if you're the kind of guy that loves a POD, this is your man. Prediction - 125

Boyd
What is it with DT stars and their love for playing teams from the West? Boyd is yet another fan of the Dockers and, after what Swan did to them, Boyd's looking good to do something similar. I'd say he has the highest ceiling this week but Swan's definitely the safer options. Still, Boyd should go BOOM. Prediction - 140

The verdict:

1. Boyd (140)
2. Swan (135)
3. Franklin (135)
4. Mitchell (130)
5. Thompson (130)

Requests:

S. Johnson - Requested by TheHanger
Last 3: 79, 86, 60 (75 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 146, 171 (159 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 171 (171 avg)

The only reason that I didn't consider this guy previously is his horror recent form. On the contrary, his two games against the Suns last year were huge. To prove that wasn't a fluke, his recent scores against the other spud sides in the competition are a 150 against GWS and a 163 and 171 against Melbourne. All things outside of his ripper form point to a huge score but, obviously, the risk is way too great. Prediction - 150 with a chance of 80...

Rockliff - Requested by tractorfac
Last 3: 119, 141, 100 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 119, 102 (111 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 119 (119 avg)

I was legitimately surprised that Rocky is 2 for 2 in tons against the Swans. Sydney are notoriously difficult to score against and the big tons are even rarer. That being said, signs point to Rocky tonning up this week. Prediction - 115

Ablett - Requested by Tominator
Last 3: 102, 148, 61 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 92 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 148, 61, 106 (105 avg)

The reasons I didn't consider this guy earlier come down to the Cats only giving up about 1 ton a game and usually not a big one. Ablett's only played his old team once for a productive but not special 92. I don't find he's trustworthy as a captain either with 2 of his last 3 games seeming like he just doesn't care. Obviously, it's still GAJ and he can still score big but I'm not seeing it. Prediction - 110

Cotchin - Requested by Toga
Last 3: 111, 87, 112 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 110, 74, 71 (85 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 112, 113, 143 (123 avg)

Cotch scored well against the Dees earlier this year and will likely do something again. You'd assume a tag will be coming his way but people have been scoring well against Melbourne regardless. With a few big Richmond names out, I'm guessing he'll step up that little bit extra. You'll notice that he quite enjoys the MCG too. Prediction - 115

Chapman - Requested by Toga
Last 3: 118, 89, 137 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 132, 95 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 95 (95 avg)

Last time they played, Chappy teared it up and scored a healthy 132. However, that was at his beloved home, Kardinia Park. On the Gold Coast, Chappy was held to a much less captain worthy 95. It is hard to tell which way he will go, especially considering that the Suns are somehow worse this year, but he his form this year has been pretty good so I'm guessing he'll be fine. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield - Requested by henry
Last 3: 84, 100, 79 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Port Adelaide: 140, 97, 59 (99 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 84, 79, 67 (77 avg)

His inconsistency this year makes him a no go for captain, in my eyes. His 140 against them earlier this year looks great though! If you look at his scoring pattern this year, it's basically a ton every second game and an average score in all the others. The scary part is that the average scores are coming at AAMI where his only ton this year is that 140 in the last Showdown. His inability to score in Adelaide and his lack of recent big scores is enough for me to say no. Prediction - 100

Shuey - Requested by henry
Last 3: 148, 90, 86 (108 avg)
Last 3 against North: 112, 64, 81 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Hobart: N/A

Once the then BOG, Gaff, was subbed off, Shuey lit it up in the second half last week for a massive 148. But, let's be realistic... The Kangaroos are NOT the Gold Coast Suns. In fact, North are in really good form right now so I don't even think Shuey will match his 112. Especially when he won't be in the safety of Perth. I'd be more inclined to lean towards a comfortable average score. Prediction - 95

Priddis - Requested by Bones Bombers
Last 3: 100, 83, 93 (92 avg)
Last 3 against North: 103, 107, 116 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Hobart: N/A

As I said with Shuey, the Roos are in hot form at the moment and, away from the influential crowds in Perth, it'll be that little bit tougher. Still, Priddis has been consistent against North for his whole career with 6 out of 7 tons and a huge 166 if you're willing to look all they way back to his first game against them in '07. It's his disappointing form that makes him a no for me this week. Should get a ton but won't be huge. Prediction - 105

Brad Ebert - Requested by KoopKicka
Last 3: 88, 98, 112 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 92, 70, 30 (64 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 112, 117, 89 (106 avg)

Ebert has been much improved after joining the Power this year and he enjoyed a nice 92 against the Crows in his first Showdown. He has shown an ability to score at AAMI Park too with 4 of 7 tons there this year and the others being 89+. I'd like to think he'll step up that little bit more this week with a lot of Port players still up but, again, I can't see a score worth captaining. Prediction - 105

Franklin - Requested by whatlez
Last 3: 115, 122, 99 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 122, 97 (111 avg)

I didn't consider Buddy because I didn't think he was going to play. If he does, however, and the Hawks continue their regular trend of slaughtering the poorer teams in the AFL, he'll dominate! I'd be expecting something lazy like 8+ goals and a handy few marks as well. Take caution though! If you're captaining Buddy, I'd be inclined to have Swan VC because you know he's definitely playing tonight. Worst thing would be to have Buddy a late withdrawal and have your VC do the same... Prediction - 135

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments!

[TheHanger]

Stevie Johnson, just look at his two scores against Gold Coast last year!

a request by the way

[PowerBug]

Going Watson, so reliable so far, even if he picks up 110 i'll be happy. I trust him not to fail me.

[aces-high]

Awesome stuff once again mate :) gonna stick with swanny, looks in great nick atm and loves the G! Thanks once again for all this research you do every week, its a great read

[tractorfac]

Thinking maybe rockliff, I'm not sure if the smaller scg suits him though?

[Tominator]

what about Gary Ablett ?

great thread by the way, love your work LaHug!!

[LaHug]

Stevie Johnson, just look at his two scores against Gold Coast last year!

a request by the way

Done. Definitely the hugest ceiling for this week but also a huge risk!

[Fireballz]

what about Gary Ablett ?

great thread by the way, love your work LaHug!!

Was about to ask the same thing! Blasphemor!

[TheHanger]

Stevie Johnson, just look at his two scores against Gold Coast last year!

a request by the way

Done. Definitely the hugest ceiling for this week but also a huge risk!

cheers LaHug, good stuff

seems to me that Stevie J is a bit of a downhill skier

[Jigsaw]

Swan for me. Going to find it very tough to take the 'C' off of Swan for the rest of the year if he continues at this rate.

[TheHanger]

Swan for me. Going to find it very tough to take the 'C' off of Swan for the rest of the year if he continues at this rate.

agreed

[Fireballz]

seems to me that Stevie J is a bit of a downhill skier

His Norm Smith medal would disagree. As would his recent records against Collingwood and Hawthorn.

[LaHug]

Thinking maybe rockliff, I'm not sure if the smaller scg suits him though?

what about Gary Ablett ?

great thread by the way, love your work LaHug!!

Done guys!

Swan for me. Going to find it very tough to take the 'C' off of Swan for the rest of the year if he continues at this rate.

I'll be going Swan this week but I honestly believe Boyd will outscore him. I don't have Boyd though (got suckered into Stanton instead :()

[Fenno]

I don't know why you bother LaHug. I know I wouldn't when Jormas and dtrain put such quality captain posts out each week.

Seriously now great post.

[LaHug]

I don't know why you bother LaHug. I know I wouldn't when Jormas and dtrain put such quality captain posts out each week.

Seriously now great post.

Haha, thanks mate!