Think you can win it from here?

[Grannyboy]

I had too much time on my hands and came up with a few observations looking at the leaders and those around me to try and figure out approximately where I will finish. This was done based on SC (I did research on SC...why?) but the same basic rules apply for DT. Point scoring and pricing should be scaled down 10-15% when applying this to DT.

My formula came down to a few simple 'rules' that I came up with.
They are:
1. You pretty much have to be in the top 205 at the very worst from here, 960pts behind the leader. This gives you 96 points per round to catch up, about the most I was willing to stretch it to.
2. You must have at least 7 trades to cover injuries for 10 rounds if you have 18-22 premos on the field. (Based on this weeks snap shot of 80 currently injured players 15 that I class as premo, a 380k+ player you won't trade and averages 85+. There are 70 odd of these players in the game currently.) I figure an extra trade is worth on average about 6pts per round from here depending on when/how it is used, as a rough guess.
3. Every team in front of you will average 14 players the same as you, this leaves only 8 players to do your catching up with. These players have to average 10 points more than the leader every round: 80x10=800.
4.You must have the right captain each week, if you don't someone else will and missing just a couple of weeks will cost you in the long run, say 10pts per round 10x10=100.
5. If you have more than 7 trades you can add roughly 6pts per round per trade up to a max of 10, so potentially 18pts x 10 rounds 180pts but that is pushing it a bit, I rounded down to 1 more than you need or 8 trades max in my equation, about the most a person that far up the ladder would have. 1 extra trade 6pts x 10 rounds = 60pts.
6. Therefore the maximum a coach can be behind from here and catch the leader is 800+100+60 = 960pts or 205th position.
7. Trades are important but you really can't have more than 10 atm, 3-4 upgrades from here assuming you have 18/19 premos on the field already and 6-7 injury trades.
8. Your team including money in the bank should be worth around $13m or just over now. This seems to be a constant with most teams in the top 200.
9. During the next 10 rounds there is a 25% chance if a premo is injured you will have him. There is around a 50% chance the teams in front of you will have him depending who he is of course. This is where extra trades help if lots of premos go down in the next few rounds, if that happens this will add extra value to any extra trades you have over the minimum 7 I worked out from here. Keeping in mind your extra trades will only be of value after everyone else has used theirs, about rnd 21 resulting in only 3 or so rounds of 'extra value'.

Any questions? Because I'm confused now :P

[Grannyboy]

Only your POD players, your captain and your trades/$ should be a factor from here. There is no point having the same team as 1st place now if you're 500th, you won't catch him.

[T Dog]

A simple no from me then GBoy.. :'(..may win a league or 2 at best ..sadly  :o

[Football Factory]

3. Ill put in all the players you have and you cant beat me  :P

9. I would say there is a 100% chance i will have that premo that gets injured   :(

So did you work out where you would finish ? 

Prediction for me please : Ranked 544th. I have flower all trades and no money  ;D

[Grannyboy]

Unfortunately it's far from fine tuned, I need to plot a few teams progress from here til the end of the season vs the leader. I rounded off so many numbers and there should be a big swing in the last few rounds with people hoarding trades for finals. I can give it a go over the next few rounds or so too see how badly I've fluffed it all up.

[Grannyboy]

Apparently I've offended people by posting research on numbers in this game. I apologise sincerely and take it from all the boos you never want to hear from me again? FAT FLOWERING CHANCE THAT WILL EVER HAPPEN! Boo me more people, let's see if we can click that button 1,000,000 times and REALLY put me in my place! That'll show me! Don't bother to post or debate these things or possibly even enter input and help me and everyone else who reads this and bothers to post. Just click that button boo. That's the spirit.
If you are unfamiliar with sarcasm then you are one of the most intelligent, good looking and useful people to read this post!

(Disregard this whole post if it's actually whatlez doing it because I kicked him out of my league...if that's the case then I just fomcrotflmfao)

[Jukes]

The awkward moment when you get a response like that /\ from a thread with 6 posts and 3 contributors.

[TheHanger]

The awkward moment when you get a response like that /\ from a thread with 6 posts and 3 contributors.

pretty sure he was referring to all the boos he got

[Justin Bieber]

Just reading one of your comments...

Um what? What did I do?

[Chopps]

That was a good post till the one that followed, on topic however whilst your maths is well thought out, i think it's to stretched. Example for dt. I am 112th I would have what you call a completed side having said that I am fielding zorko /Martin froward. Martin is a little off the right average for a forward premo and Zorko could hit the dreaded wall. Having said that the other 6 are top 7 or 8 forwards.

My mids can't get much better I have swan, Albett, selwood, Boyd,rocky Watson , with the exception of rocky by .7 of a point they all average 105+ and the better four 115+

I have Maric and cox in rucks

Down back isn't as pretty but still solid. It be nice to have Scotland and/ or carrots but it's still solid

Now having said all that I am 707 points. Behind lets assume I have trades to burn I won't catch him/her .
Not only do I have to make up the 707 I have to close te 50.5 avg they have on me to put them that far in front. So my maths is I have to make 129.1 points to draw with them if they stay static which they won't.

707 lead divide by 9 rounds remaining is 78.6 (rounded to 1 decimal) plus 50.5 average that got him there

If I had trades and unlimited money sure I could bring in an extra forward. I could change rocky and selwood up for probably 10 points each and chop lake, shaw for Scotland and carrots . That still wouldn't give me my points, Who could guess the right players to. Break out 2nd half ?

All in all interesting discussion but I think you need to be more like  top 20 or 30 or really lucky

[Chopps]

Ignore all grammatical and spelling mistakes, done on my iPhone.

[Gurans]

The awkward moment when you get a response like that /\ from a thread with 6 posts and 3 contributors.

lol

[Justin Bieber]

I'm still curious why I got mention?!?

[bigballs]

the reason why you have so many boos is because your points are stupid. Most people probably stopped reading after your first or second point.

1. You have no chance of winning if you are coming 205th. It means you have to go past over 200 people in 10 rounds. You may have a chance of having an overall higher score than the leader at the end of the competition but even still, I highly doubt that.

2. This point is also ridiculous. The winner will need a lot of luck and will probably be a team that is already set that has less than 7 trades left. It will be the team inside the top 10 or 20 that has the least amount of injuries.

There is no point reading on or arguing with any of your other points because the 1st 2 are wrong.

[Gurans]

the reason why you have so many boos is because your points are stupid. Most people probably stopped reading after your first or second point.

1. You have no chance of winning if you are coming 205th. It means you have to go past over 200 people in 10 rounds. You may have a chance of having an overall higher score than the leader at the end of the competition but even still, I highly doubt that.

2. This point is also ridiculous. The winner will need a lot of luck and will probably be a team that is already set that has less than 7 trades left. It will be the team inside the top 10 or 20 that has the least amount of injuries.

There is no point reading on or arguing with any of your other points because the 1st 2 are wrong.

this guy.... has big balls