LaHug's Captains Round 13 - I'M BACK WITH A NEW FEATURE!

[LaHug]

Hey guys,
I'm finally back with only one exam to go (one that I'm reasonably comfortable with). Hopefully I won't be too rusty! If you appreciate my work, why not reward me with a little vote in the Personality of the Year Award? http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,45929.0.html

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

This week, I've brought in a new feature telling you "tons per game" and top scores against each team in the last three weeks. If people like it, I'll make it a weekly feature.

Team summaries:
This is a new feature that I'm trying out this week. I simply tell you the average number of tons against each team over the last three weeks and the top few scores against them. Hopefully it helps summarise which teams give up the biggest scores. Please give feedback!

Sydney
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 131 Watson, 121 Montagna, 112 Armitage

Geelong
Tons per game: 1.3
Top scores: 115 Coniglio, 112 Simpson, 111 Boyd

Bulldogs
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 154 Bolton, 148 Steve Johnson, 131 Kieran Jack, 131 Chapman, 120 Hannebery

Brisbane
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 140 Goldstein, 122 Franklin, 113 Mitchell

Collingwood
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 190 Ablett, 114 Grimes, 112 Hickey

West Coast
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 127 Redden, 120 Adcock, 118 Carrazzo

Fremantle
Tons per game: 5.3
Top scores: 162 Rosa, 150 Sloane, 124 Tuck

Essendon
Tons per game: 3
Top scores: 119 Treloar, 117 Jetta, 109 Bolton

Melbourne
Tons per game: 5
Top scores: 155 Beams, 150 Sidebottom, 146 Robinson, 142 Swan, 128 Watson

GWS
Tons per game: 4
Top scores: 150 Steve Johnson, 137 Chapman, 127 Kelly, 126 Taylor

North
Tons per game: 2.3
Top scores: 204 Franklin, 148 Ablett, 126 Redden

Adelaide
Tons per game: 3.7
Top scores: 135 Sidebottom, 132 Beams, 131 Dal Santo, 127 Montagna, 124 Thomas

The facts:

Joel Selwood
Last 3: 122, 62, 100 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 100, 92, 111 (101 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 92 (92 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 133, 106, 111 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 120, 116, 95 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 133, 111, 162 (135 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 142, 95, 143 (127 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 144, 89, 161 (131 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 142, 95, 171 (136 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 150, 68, 135 (118 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 91, 95, 70 (85 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 150, 68, 139 (119 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 155, 101, 132 (129 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 86, 91, 119 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 155, 101, 100 (119 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 59, 88, 133 (93 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 138, 131, 124 (131 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 59, 133, 113 (102 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 131, 128, 91 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 70, 82, 24 (59 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 75, 70, 105 (83 avg)

Thompson
Last 3: 141, 65, 84 (97 avg)
Last 3 against North: 75, 119, 95 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 119, 121, 116 (119 avg)

The thoughts:

Joel Selwood
He's been pretty up and down this year and doesn't have anything to show that's going to change. Tons against the Swans are hard to come by and big ones are even rarer. Not for me this week. Prediction - 100

Boyd
Boyd scored well for coaches last week and is coming up against a team he plays well against this week. Under the roof, he should be nice and comfortable. However, he might get the Raines tag. Cooney got it last year so I'd expect him to be safe but that risk is there (however minor). Prediction - 130

Swan
His scores against the Eagles go like this: 144, 89, 161, 158, 133, 158. That is ridiculously good! He's playing at the MCG where his season low there is 95. The Eagles haven't given up anything huge in the last 3 weeks but I'm expecting that to change. Prediction - 140

Sidebottom
You have to remember that Steele has only played the Eagles three times in his career (it's only his 4th season) so those scores are actually pretty handy. Take out that 68 (I know a lot of us want to forget it) and he's in ridiculous form. He should continue to score well. Prediction - 120

Beams
In slightly less great form that Sidebottom (although without the yucky 68) but slightly better against the Eagles. Likely to continue his good form as well. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
PENDLEBURY IS OUT.

Watson
No matter what the explanation for that 24 (can't be bothered looking it up), Watson only has 1 ton in his career of 8 games against the Dockers. He's playing at a ground that he doesn't score well at and he'll almost certainly cop the Crowley tag. Do not expect a good score from him this week. It's also important to note that Freo's tons per game is quite warped from when they gave up 9 tons against the Eagles. Prediction - 90

Thompson
I'm not sure where these rumours about North giving up hundreds of tons are coming from. That being said, they do give up BIG tons. Thompson bounced back well last week but has a bit of an up and down record against the Roos. He loves Etihad though (like a lot of stars seem to) so should do alright this week. Prediction - 120

The verdict:

1. Swan (140)
2. Boyd (130)
3. Sidebottom (120)
4. Beams (120)
5. Thompson (120)

Requests:

Stanton - Requested by elephants
Last 3: 89, 105, 93 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 93, 104, 67 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 109, 104, 94 (102 avg)

Stants has been fairly average of late but his owners (me included) are just waiting for him to get back to his dominant form. He's been decent against the Dockers in the past and he quite enjoys playing at Subiaco. I can only hope this will be a huge week from him but I can't see anything abut another average score. Prediction - 105

Dangerfield - Requested by DT Gun
Last 3: 79, 110, 67 (85 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 64, 61, 37 (54 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 142, 65, 67 (91 avg)

Danger hasn't done much against the Roos in the past and, despite not being a prominent scorer before this year, they are a team he is below average against. The one number that really jumps out is his only game at Etihad this year when the Crows smashed Carlton and Dangerfield picked up a handy 142. It'd be hard to see him matching a 35 possession, 2 goal performance this weekend but you know the potential is there. He's been pretty rollercoastery in the last few weeks but he's been consistently following up average weeks with handy tons. Prediction - 115

Heath Shaw - Requested by Jayman
Last 3: 79, 115, 113 (102 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 127, 98, 93 (106 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 81, 66 (87 avg)

After three consecutive scores of 110+, Heater scored a 79 in his last game before disappearing to injury. I do not recall an injury stopping or even slowing him in that game (round 9 against the Crows if anyone knows more) but that could be a reason. Regardless, he does pretty well against the Eagles and, like most Collingwood players, enjoys a stroll around the MCG. He sometimes pumps out huge scores but, if you're wanting a POD captain, Sidebottom and Beams look like better options. Should still do well IF he's back and 100%. Prediction - 110

Chapman - Requested by TheHanger
Last 3: 89, 137, 131 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 104, 120, 88 (104 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 120, 94, 86 (100 avg)

One of those few players that seems to score well against Sydney, Chappy could be an interesting smokey. He's had some decent form this season (particularly in recent weeks) and he's even shown great form at the SCG. The problem is, the risk is probably greater than the reward. Prediction - 110

Sloane - Requested by PowerBug
Last 3: 100, 150, 75 (108 avg)
Last 3 against North: 79 (79 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 100, 65, 41 (69 avg)

Having only played North once in his career, it's hard to take much from it. What I can say is that he travels well with a 150 at Subi against Freo, a 125 up at the Gold Coast, and a 100 against the Blues last time he was at Docklands. His form this year has had its downs but he's shown good form to average a healthy 101. You would have to be very brave to pick him though with a great ceiling but a horrible floor on the other end of the spectrum (scores of 56 and 75 this year). I would be more inclined to think Thompson or Dangerfield will be the dominant player for the Crows this week. Prediction - 100

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments!

[nickstiges]

Welcome back LH!

Think I'll be going with Swan for the big C this week no reason to take it off him at the moment with Ablett not playing.

[Justin Bieber]

Pendles isn't playing, just throwing that out there.

I like the new feature, but it seesm your using monty's stats and they are mainly off.

For example, Beams got 98 against the GC, Ablett got 186 against the Gold Coast and so on.

But good work.

Looking at Swanny or Boydy.

[Juddster5]

Lol how can you say Joel Selwoods scores have been up and down? One of the most consistent players out there!

[Justin Bieber]

Yeah Hug, Monty doesn't change it once he finishes.

Sometimes in SC he gets it wrong by 20-30 lol.

But yeah DT is usually only a tackle, kick or mark off.

[Juddster5]

69 in the pouring rain and getting tagged by Raines. 62 against GWS when he played about 50-60 % game time. By this Logic Pendles has been up and down this year as well.

[Flame]

Love your work Huggy Bear! Keep coming with the stats!

Great stuff!

[Juddster5]

Ok then

[LaHug]

Ok then

Thanks for understanding and, also, thanks for pointing out the fact that he played so little game time. I was unaware.

Love your work Huggy Bear! Keep coming with the stats!

Great stuff!

Thanks mate!

[Spinking]

Good work LaHug! Liked the new stats. C on Swanny for me!

[Colliwobblers]

nice write up mate.

Swan, the whole swan and nothing but the swan for me

[ossie85]

Reckon Boydy for me... the guy is vastly underrated, and I'm running short of legit options to be honest!

[LaHug]

Reckon Boydy for me... the guy is vastly underrated, and I'm running short of legit options to be honest!

I'm pretty short on options too... I was planning on trading in Swan this week but so expensive :(

[Flame]

Swan is my skipper too! Locked and loaded!

[betch ya]

Reckon Boydy for me... the guy is vastly underrated, and I'm running short of legit options to be honest!

I'm pretty short on options too... I was planning on trading in Swan this week but so expensive :(

swan is worth the money tho, will need to have him in ya team at some stage, wont go much lower $$ wise.

port tagged griffen last week, expect him to get the raines tag and will be moved to boyd if he is killing bris like he killed port (boyd still got 40 odd points when he had cornes on him after half time.

but swan 4 me