LaHug's Captains Round 8

[LaHug]

Hey guys,
I was pretty good last week (yeah, I'm tooting my own horn, wanna fight about it?!) and, unlike that pirate from our "rival site", I included Boyd in my list of glorious choices ;). Why not reward me with a little vote in the Personality of the Year Award? http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,45929.0.html

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

The facts:

Swan
Last 3 weeks: 143, 117, 171 (144 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 68, 84, 115 (89 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 171, 109, 116 (132 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3 weeks: 119, 133, 113 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 131, 106, 89 (109 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 62, 122 (99 avg)

Selwood
Last 3 weeks: 106, 69, 130 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 119, 118, 121 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 104, 118, 108 (110 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3 weeks: 103, 112, 63 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 100, 129, 102 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 63, 129, 119 (104 avg)

Boyd
Last 3 weeks: 162, 94, 115 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 136, 125 (131 avg)
Last 3 at TIO: 133, 104, 100 (112 avg)

Ablett
Last 3 weeks: 106, 97, 160 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 118, 115, 143 (125 avg)

Stanton
Last 3 weeks: 140, 193, 77 (137 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 135, 69, 92 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 77, 175, 155 (136 avg)

Watson
Last 3 weeks: 114, 134, 104 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 104, 68, 96 (89 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 104, 100, 105 (103 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3 weeks: 73, 73, 128 (91 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Gabba: 73, 128, 143 (115 avg)

Murphy
Last 3 weeks: 68, 94, 117 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 126, 144, 75 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 68, 94, 114 (92 avg)

Thompson
Last 3 weeks: 138, 128, 138 (135 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 86, 88, 127 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 121, 116, 75 (104 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
Swanny is in ripper form with a season low of 102 this season and a solid 127 average. However, last year he was pretty poor against the Cats (particularly in the Grand Final thanks to a Ling tag). There is no longer a Ling to tag him and he did pretty well against them in 2010 (97, 127, 141). All signs point to good things. Prediction - 130

Pendlebury
Pretty average against the Cats except for last year's Grand Final (Pendles always steps up for the big games) so I don't feel he'll do particularly well. His recent form is very good though and he is hard to ignore. Thinking good but not great. Prediction - 115

Selwood
Selwood didn't bounce back as well as his coaches had hoped after he was beaten by the Raines tag and had a week off. His form against the Pies last year was great. He's been pretty good at the MCG this year and this week should be a nice one. Prediction - 120

Mitchell
Mitchell has been average in the last few weeks. It started with his first sub-100 score at Launceston in 8 games and will, in my opinion, end in his next game there. Before the 63, it was 7 straight tons for him at Aurora. Couple that with 5 straight against Freo (including two 129s and a 141) and you have yourself a good score. Prediction - 120

Boyd
162 last week and a 124 rolling average. 136 and 125 against the Suns last year and will probably go head-to-head with GAJ. But he's playing in Darwin... OH WAIT, 112 rolling average there too! Can't lose with this guy. Prediction - 130

Ablett
Last week he was underdone and the 97 before that was against Raines back in round 4. The 160 before that is more indicative of what he can do. He has six straight tons against the Bulldogs including some good ones. He's never played at TIO before so there's no stats there but that shouldn't really matter. He should do well! Prediction - 125

Stanton
It finally happened. Stanton backed up a huge score with a huge score. With more pops than flops this season, Stants is looking like a serious captain option. Running average is ridiculous. Last game against the Tigers was good too but there is always the risk of a low score that you don't see from the likes of Swan and Ablett. Should still be great. Prediction - 130

Watson
Watson is another guy in great form. However, he didn't play against Richmond last year and his past scores against them have been very average (that 104 is his only ever ton against them). His form this year suggests he'll still do alright but I wouldn't be considering him as a captain option. Prediction - 105

Rockliff
Two consecutive 73s is not what you want to see from a premium midfielder. His current form is atrocious and, considering he had a 61 earlier this year, he's one of the most frustrating DTers this season. That aside, he *should* kill the Giants with scores of 143 and 130 against the leagues other bottom dwellers, the Suns and Dees. Not worth the risk with his current form but he definitely could go bang. Prediction - 100

Murphy
Murphy's form has diminished but, if there was anyone he's going to turn it around against, why not a team he scored two healthy tons against in the last two years? Murph seems to enjoy playing the Crows but his recent form is enough of a deterrent for me. Prediction - 110

Thompson
He was pretty poor against Carlton the last two years but, other than that, the numbers look good. Three big scores in a row and decent form at Etihad (albeit last year). Should be good but there are still better options, considering he doesn't like playing the Blues. Prediction - 115

The verdict:

1. Swan (130)
2. Boyd (130)
3. Stanton (130)
4. Ablett (125)
5. Selwood (120)

Requests:

Deledio - Requested by Jalapeno
Last 3 weeks: 104, 107, 101 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 74, 108, 92 (91 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 104, 109, 140 (118 avg)

Not the best track record against Essendon but it's almost a ton/no ton/ton/no ton type of pattern. He's been pretty consistent this year and has had the one mammoth score but I think he'll just keep plugging away at the regular tons this week. Prediction - 105

Franklin - Requested by stew42
Last 3 weeks: 114, 105, 71 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 68, 83, 98 (83 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 71, 86, 109 (89 avg)

Last week was really a case of what could've been with 5 point down the drain for every goal he missed (meaning he could have had up to 149 if he were a real sharp shooter). That aside, Fremantle are his second worst team to play having never scored a ton against them in 8 games. If we take his worst team, West Coast, for example and note that he only scored 76 against them this year, you'll see that it's not likely he's going to suddenly favour a team he's never been good against. Prediction - 75

Beams - Requested by essendon2
Last 3 weeks: 122, 137, 121 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 129, 69, 90 (96 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 121, 93, 74 (96 avg)

Beams is in ripper form this year and killed the Cats last year. Form says he'll do amazingly and who am I to argue with that? Could be worth a punt, especially without one of those big four. Prediction - 120

Robinson - Requested by TMurphBROWNLOW
Last 3 weeks: 87, 123, 106 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 67, 28, 54 (50 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 87, 123, 66 (92 avg)

Adelaide is the only team Robbo hasn't scored above 90 against in his career. In fact, it's the only team he hasn't scored higher than 67 against! Not good signs for a guy coming off his second lowest score this season. Prediction - 90

Barlow - Requested by henry
Last 3 weeks: 74, 65, 105 (82 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 103 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: N/A

You'd have thought that no Fyfe would make Barlow a huge scorer in the DT world but it just hasn't happened and, sadly, I don't see it happening soon. He's only played the Hawks once for a good score of 103 and has never played at Aurora. He could turn it around eventually but, until he does, I can't predict anything good. Prediction - 70

Josh P. Kennedy - Requested by chief007
Last 3 weeks: 83, 114, 149 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 63, 69, 58 (63 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 114, 95, 136 (115 avg)

Last week was disappointing but, this week, a bad score is actually predicted. He has played Melbourne three times in his career for a high of 69 and a 63 average. Sure, he's better now than he was before and he's unlikely to score another 60something but I don't think it'll be huge either. Prediction - 85

Sandilands - Requested by JBs-Hawks
Last 3 weeks: 96, 122, 103 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 74, 108, 93 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 58, 83, 36 (59 avg)

Sandi hasn't played at Aurora since 2006 so scratch those numbers. He was average against the Hawks in 2010 and has only one ton against them in his career. Hawthorn's ruck department (like almost every one in the AFL) is fairly week at the moment which should give Sandi an extra 10 or so points on hit outs but not enough to make him worth captaining. Prediction - 100

Simpson - Requested by Windigo
Last 3 weeks: 92, 123, 140 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 100, 143, 79 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 93, 123, 127 (114 avg)

I'll be honest, when I read "Kade Simpson", I don't think "Dream Team star" so I was pretty surprised to see he was averaging 111 this season. He has proven he can smash the Crows with a 143 in 2010 and a 100 last year. Looks like he'll keep up his good form this week. Prediction - 115

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments!

[antonc]

Cheers, for your work mate
Just got stants in and I have put the big C on.
Hope he keeps the big ones coming

[Ricochet]

great work as usual LH,
cheer to you

[The F.A.R.K.]

thinking of doing shiel to boyd this week sounds great

horsley will get vc should crank out 120

[Chelskiman]

Boyd for me with either Pendles or Sammy as VC.

[Spite]

Man rockliff is tempting... but not ballsy enough! Going to have to be boyd although swan is till a chance for me :)

Good stuff LaHug! Cheers to you as usual!!!

[elephants]

Boyd C
Mitchell VC

Top notch always LH ;)

[The F.A.R.K.]

haha hang on im gonna grow a pair and put the c on rockliff

he will crank out 160 for me

[SydneyRox]

haha hang on im gonna grow a pair and put the c on rockliff

he will crank out 160 for me

HA, too bad I aint playing you this week!

Nice write up again LH - I am tempted to keep the C on Boyd, served me well last week but only cos I thought GAJ was underdone and could get vested.

Cant go past the lil master....

[LaHug]

Thanks guys! I'm thinking the top 4 should score similarly so, depending on matchups and gut feeling, take your pick. Can't go wrong, really (famous last words??)

[Jalapeno]

I think stants is in for another 130+ this week :) hopefully anyways haha cheers LaHug

[Jalapeno]

Also if ya dont mind LH can u please have a look at deledio? thanks mate

[stew42]

Cannot go past Boydos this week, and Murphy as VC

Opinions on Buddy would be nice though. Imagine if he kicked 7.3 instead of 3.7? Imagine if he had a Goal to Behind percentage of greater than 39% (ish)? Wouldn't it be nice?

[Justin Bieber]

I think Boyd is a lock for me.

So lock him in Eddie and Boyd as C ;D

[S_Coach99]

Between Stanton and Ablett for me

(other contenders in my team are Cox, Swan, Franklin and Watson)